Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
China GDP Growth in Q3
Q/Q was 1.3% vs. consensus 1%.
Mean and Median Cumulative Wage Growth
Inflation has not kept with wage growth over the last year.
The GDP Outlook: Now and Near Future
The October WSJ forecast survey is out. The mean forecast is for no downturn (no 2-quarter negative growth). It’s also a lot higher than three months ago.
Inflation: Known Unknowns
In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Industrial and manufacturing production surprise on the upside (0.3% m/m vs. 0.1% consensus, 0.4% vs. 0.1% respectively), with August growth revised up. Here is a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC as well as monthly GDP (SPGMI) and GDPNow (at 5.4% q/q SAAR as of today).
“The inflation surge is over. Now we’ll see if interest rate increases cause recession.”
From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today (title not mine):
Inversions, Bear Steepening Dis-Inversions, and Recessions
Does it matter if spreads are dis-inverting because short yields are falling, or long yields are rising? MacKenzie and McCormick (Bloomberg) say yes. With long yields rising…
CPI Inflation in September: Instantaneous Headline, Core & Headline Median and Trimmed Mean
A bump up except instantaneous core.
IMF October WEO
From intro to the WEO: