Soybean prices continue to plunge (July ’19 futures). Some have argued that decreased demand for soybeans, due to the ongoing African swine fever epidemic in China. The April 9th USDA FAS report contained information on both this, and soy market conditions. If decreased demand for soybeans was due to news about Chinese swine stocks, we would have expected rising US hog and declining soy prices. Yet hog prices have fallen for most of the time since then.
Category Archives: China
Soybean Prices on the Eve of the US-China Trade Deal
Why haven’t they risen?
Why Hasn’t the Incipient Trump-Xi Deal Shown Up in Soybean Futures?
(In honor of reader CoRev), soybean futures for May…
“A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses”
Two Years of “Winning”: Messages from GDP, International Investment Releases
The release of the final release for GDP, and the international investment position provides an opportunity to assess progress on the trade war. I for one have gotten tired of “winning”.
Guest Contribution: “Xi and Trump Miss a Chance to Expand Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on March 21st.
Why Haven’t Soybean Futures Recovered?
As Brad Setser noted last month, US, Brazilian and Argentine soybean prices have converged, suggesting the end of arbitrage profits.
A Primer on Exchange Rate Misalignment (Updated)
As the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.
Continue readingThis Is Winning?
The November trade release on US-China trade:
Continue readingSo Tired of Winning: US-China Trade Edition
Classes are about to start, so time to assemble slides on the trade outlook. I put together this graph of US goods exports to and imports from China (would’ve been through November, but for the Federal government shutdown – Jan 8 was release date). Please help me see the victory Mr. Trump keeps on talking about.
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