Category Archives: China

“Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?”

The answer is no, and yes.

From the paper by that title, coauthored with Yin-Wong Cheung (UCSC, CUHK) and Xingwang Qian (SUNY Buffalo State). (This is a revision of the paper discussed here.)
For the “no” part:

We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices — as
represented by a trade weighted exchange rate — but the relationships are not always precisely or
robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and
decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates….

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On China: Global Impact, Domestic Costs, Hard Landing, and the RMB As an International Currency

A new book on China (and Asia) in the global economy, the costs of the Chinese currency regime, the prospects for a Chinese hard landing, and can China save the day if the US and euro area go into recession. Plus, the prospects for the RMB as a key international currency.

 

A new book — Asia and China in the World Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung (UCSC and HK City U) and Guonan Ma (BIS).

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Yuan Appreciation: Do Chinese Trade Flows Behave Differently? (I)

China is in the news; or more accurately, the Chinese currency, is. From Reuters:

A sharp rise in China’s yuan currency might cut the U.S. trade deficit by as much as one third and create enough American jobs to put at least a modest dent in the unemployment rate.

Then again, it may also lead to a destabilizing spike in Chinese unemployment and spark a trade war that drags the global economy back into a deep recession.

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Yuan Schizophrenia

Or more on China-U.S. exchange rate pass through

 

Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal illustrated the conflicted nature of American views regarding real yuan appreciation. The front page article by Hilsenrath, Burkitt and Holmes argued “Change in China Hits U.S. Purse”. On the back page of the C section was a countering article, “No appreciation for the rising yuan”, by Orlik, that noted the moderate impact on prices of imported goods from China.

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Gains and Losses from Trade with China

From the conclusion to a provocative paper by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, entitled The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States:

our study suggests that the rapid increase in U.S. imports of Chinese goods during the
past two decades has had a substantial impact on employment and household incomes, benefits
program enrollments, and transfer payments in local labor markets exposed to increased import
competition. These effects extend far outside the manufacturing sector, and they imply substantial
changes in worker and household welfare.

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