I’ve just completed a new research paper that surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Here I report the paper’s summary of oil market disruptions and economic downturns since the Second World War. Every recession (with one exception) was preceded by an increase in oil prices, and every oil market disruption (with one exception) was followed by an economic recession.
Category Archives: energy
The first oil shock
A research paper by Eyal Dvir of Boston College and Ken Rogoff of Harvard suggests some interesting parallels between the recent behavior of oil prices and what was observed at the very beginning of the industry. I’ve been doing some related research on the history of the oil industry that looks into the events behind historical oil price shocks. Here I describe the first oil shock, which occurred a century and a half ago.
Energy cornucopia?
Don Boudreaux and Mark Perry are among those who regard John Tierney’s claims of energy cornucopia to be persuasive.
Petroleum Prices and the International Dimension
Paul Krugman observes that there are many real side factors that should drive oil prices higher (in an article that cites Jim’s 2009 paper). I certainly don’t have much to add in terms of thinking about oil prices and domestic macro implications, but Krugman’s note did impel me to examine more closely the international aspects of the underlying demand factors.
Worrying about oil prices
The price of oil moved above $90 a barrel yesterday. Is it time to become concerned about the possible macroeconomic effects?
Peak oil in Pennsylvania
Here I pass along a few items on the early history of the oil industry that I found interesting.
Commodity inflation
I guess now we know that the Fed has the tools to prevent deflation.
Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and Oil
Modest relief on energy costs
A reader requests that we update some of the charts we’ve used to track U.S. energy expenditures.
EIA: The China Syndrome
We’re pleased to feature another post from Steven Kopits of Douglas-Westwood, this time on the EIA’s oil demand outlook.