There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the effects of high gasoline prices on the quantity demanded of gasoline, as well driving behavior (Jim Hamilton, Jim Hamilton, CR, CR, Paul Krugman). David Austin, whose work I have cited often on this blog, gave a fascinating presentation, entitled “Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Choice” at the recent Society of Government Economists conference in Washington, DC a couple of weeks ago. In it, he tackles some of these issues. (Note, these are his own personal views and do not necessarily represent the views of any specific organization.)
Category Archives: energy
Housing and the oil shock
The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.
Oil spike
Why did oil breach $138?
Oil Prices in Other Currencies
Some of the explanations for the dollar jump rely upon the perceived weakness in the dollar’s value (and hence, by extension, Fed policy). Does this make sense?
The oil shock of 2008
Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
Following up on this post from October 2006, when oil was only $58.88 (WTI,daily average) a barrel, consider this excerpt from today’s Thomas Net:
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that “the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today.”
Commodity futures speculation
More on the possible contribution of index fund investment to recent commodity price moves.
Understanding crude oil prices
That’s the title of my latest research paper. Here’s the summary from the paper’s introduction.
Oil speculation
Several readers call our attention to testimony by Michael Masters, of
Masters Capital Management, before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, on the role that speculation has played in recent commodity price movements. Here is what I think Masters is missing.
Oil price fundamentals
I’ve been offering reasons for believing that the flow of funds into commodity investing has contributed to the recent oil price highs. Although I believe this speculation has gotten ahead of fundamentals in the last few months, there is no question in my mind that market fundamentals are the main reason for the broader 5-year move up in oil prices. Here I review those fundamental factors.