One component of Abenomics is a vigorously expansionary monetary policy. The yen has depreciated substantially as a consequence — as of February, about 20% relative to 2012Q3. One question is how much of an expenditure switching effect this depreciation will induce. In order to examine this question, I have done some quick and dirty econometrics, summarized in this paper.
Category Archives: international
Currency Wars vs. Currency Spillovers
From Steven Englander (Citibank), “Currency war, BoJ Style” (4/7, not online):
Japan is likely to be labeled as a currency warrior by major Asian trading partners. However, the new BoJ policy has been endorsed by the Fed and IMF and is very G7 compliant, so the BoJ has cover for its policy agenda, despite the aggressiveness of its balance sheet expansion and negative implications for JPY.
The BoJ’s Kuroda Acts
From Reuters:
Teaching Mundell-Fleming, Interest Rate Parity, and the LM Curve
Simon Wren-Lewis’s post has sparked vigorous discussion [1] [2] (and rejoinder) of whether the teaching of Mundell-Fleming, omitting uncovered interest parity, to our undergraduate students is defensible. In addition, he wonders whether it makes sense to use an LM curve, given the absence of a stable money demand curve, and the fact that most advanced country central banks target a policy rate. I think these are good questions for teachers, as well as those who provide advice regarding policy measures.
Reflation and Expenditure Switching in a Two Speed World
Fiscal tipping points
At the recent U.S. Monetary Policy Forum I presented the paper Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy, along with co-authors David Greenlaw (Managing Director and Chief U.S. Fixed Income Economist for Morgan Stanley), Peter Hooper (Managing Director and Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.), and Frederic Mishkin (professor at Columbia University and former governor of the Federal Reserve). One of the goals of our research was to try to understand the events that can lead a country to a tipping point in which it faces rapid increases in the interest rate on its sovereign debt, as a result of which the country finds itself with an unmanageable fiscal burden.
Europe in recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week
issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
Guest Contribution: Gridlock in Europe
The Rise and Fall of the IMF’s Reputation
Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics at Wellesley College, and author of the new book, The IMF and Global Financial Crises: Phoenix Rising? (Cambridge University Press).
Reducing oil imports
On Wednesday I noted that encouraging more U.S. oil production was unlikely to result in a significant drop in U.S. retail gasoline prices. Nevertheless, I believe that there would be some important economic benefits from lowering the U.S. oil import bill, as I discuss here.
International Finance and Open Economy Macro
Michael Hutchison, Professor of Economics at UC Santa Cruz, and Helen Popper, Professor of Economics at Santa Clara University, have organized the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, taking place on Friday, October 19th. Those interested in thinking in a serious fashion about international should take a look.