The recent trade release for June sparked some consternation, as it indicated 2009Q2 2010Q2 growth, conditional on data already released, would be lower. But there was also some unhappiness as it was taken by some to mark the return of the spendthrift consumer.[0] Yet, everywhere I see discussion of how consumption is lackluster, because households are deleveraging and beset by uncertainty. [1] These two narratives clash. Which one is right?
Category Archives: international
Chinn-Ito Capital Account Index up to 2008
Thinking about Trade and Trade Costs
One of the big issues facing policymakers around the world is the evolution of the pattern and volume of international trade flows. I recently participated in a very useful conference that included a number of papers that shed light on this important question. The conference, “Trade Costs and International Trade Integration — Past, Present and Future,” organized by Dennis Novy (Warwick University), David Jacks (Simon Fraser University), and Christopher Meissner (University of California, Davis), and sponsored by the UK’s ESRC, and the University of Warwick’s CAGE.
Measuring the Trilemma (with Special Reference to China)
Yesterday, Greg Mankiw discussed the trilemma in international finance, noting that countries can trade off between capital mobility, monetary policy autonomy, and exchange rate stability, but cannot fully all three of those objectives at a given time. In this post, Hiro Ito cites work with Joshua Aizenman and myself, in which we quantified how countries have traded off these objectives over time (paper here).
Views on Rebalancing the Global economy
VoxEU has released a primer on rebalancing the global economy here, edited by Stijn Claessens, Simon J Evenett and Bernard Hoekman. For those interested in the political feasibility of rebalancing, Jeff Frieden holds forth on “The political economy of rebalancing”. The table of contents for the entire book is here.
Some Ruminations on Trade Flows, Trade Costs and Trends
One of the persistently challenges I consistently face in trying to model US import and export flows is the sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of time trends. Time trends are bothersome because they are, in one sense, a measure of our ignorance. That’s a worry as we consider the feasibility of global rebalancing [0] [1] [2] [3].
Is Spain Next?
Today, we’re fortunate to have Mark Copelovitch, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin, as a Guest Contributor.
First off, let me thank Menzie for the opportunity to “pinch hit” here at Econbrowser. It’s a pleasure to be here. I am Menzie’s colleague in the La Follette School of Public Affairs here at Wisconsin, and my primary area of expertise is the politics of international finance.
What Does a Euro Depreciation Mean for the US?
The euro has been depreciating against the dollar over the past few weeks. The implications of this development for the US depend critically on (1) the extent of the depreciation, (2) the duration, and (3) the source of the depreciation. (See Jim’s post for other links.)
Inflation, taxation, and the underground economy
University of Maryland Professor Boragan Aruoba (of the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index fame) has an interesting new paper that offers another perspective on the challenges facing Europe.
Consumption and Imports: A Snapshot
The March trade release came in close to consensus (although suggesting higher 2010Q1 growth [0]). Comparing the advance release figures on real goods imports against the Jan-Mar figures from the trade release doesn’t suggest a big revision (about 7.5 billion Ch.05$ on SAAR). I thought it would be interesting to see if there were any indications that American consumers were weaning themselves off of foreign consumer goods, using the 2010Q1 Advance release figures.