So Shinseki was right.
Category Archives: international
International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items
The Allied Social Sciences Association (incorporating the AEA, the Econometric Society, the International Economics and Finance Society and many other groups) meetings took place in Chicago this last weekend. I wasn’t able to go to that many sessions, but I did attend a few related to international issues.
President Bush on Economics
On Wednesday, the President writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (sub. req.):
Low Real Rates Disappear…but the Deficit Remains
I’ve been looking at real long term interest rates as proxied by nominal rates minus expected inflation. The problem of course is finding measures of expected inflation. Subtracting off the ex post rate (appropriate under the rational expectations hypothesis) can lead to misleading inferences — and is not practicable for current measures of long term rates. Using ten year constant maturity rates and the Society of Professional Forecasters 10 year horizon CPI inflation rates yields the following picture.
Is Decoupling Possible?
The dream rebalancing scenario, in which adjustment of the world’s imbalances occurs without fiscal responsibility returning to America, relies upon “decoupling”.
Surge or no surge? minimal “burn rates” for operations in Iraq
Where are expenditure rates now? Where might they go?
The RMB: Where’s it been and where’s it going?
Faster appreciation against the dollar. And apparently against a broad basket of currencies.
Econoblog on “Dollars, Debt and the Trade Gap”
Thoughts on the Dropping Dollar
Bernanke in China
Distortion versus effective subsidy.
The October Trade Release
The non-oil trade balance stabilizes. Petroleum-related imports exceed the US-China trade deficit.