Nationwide, labor force down 2.7% from February, and down 2.4% from year ago.
Category Archives: labor market
Interpreting the unemployment numbers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that 2.5 million more Americans were working in May than in April. That’s the biggest monthly increase since 1946, both in terms of the number of workers and as a percentage of the workforce. The unemployment rate dropped from 14.7% in April to 13.3% in May, the biggest monthly drop since 1950. All this is very good news. But there are also indications that we are in a deeper hole than the headline numbers suggest. Here I explain why I believe the true unemployment rate in May was a number more like 19.8%.
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Does Policy Uncertainty Matter?
The Atlanta Fed along w/Bloom (Stanford) and Davis (Chicago) survey business operators and finds it does!
Measuring unemployment and labor-force participation
The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies– if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another must be wrong. I’ve recently completed a research paper with Hie Joo Ahn that summarizes these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation.
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Did Minnesota’s Minimum Wage Hikes Hit the Fast Food Sector Hard?
I don’t think so. But you be the judge:
Continue reading“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”
Wisconsin Employment Declines, Previous Revised Down
Figures released by DWD suggest a slowdown in Wisconsin.
Arkansas and Missouri Minimum Wage Increases Contextualized
Arkansas and Missouri voted to raise minimum wages. Time to worry? Here’s a graphical depiction of CPI-deflated minimum wage up to September, and into 2021.
Fragile Inferences on Minnesota Minimum Wage Effects
An informal assessment of the impact of the minimum wage change suggests a large negative impact. Appearances can be deceiving. From a forthcoming working paper by me and Louis Johnston, a graph of the log ratio of MN employment in limited service eating establishments to Wisconsin (blue, left scale), and log ratio MN/WI minimum wage (red, right scale).
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Guest Contribution: “Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeannine Bailliu, Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu and Sri Thanabalasingam (all Bank of Canada). This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy. Therefore, the views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.