Revisions to some of the key indicators bring us back to the same old story– the U.S. economy continues to grow, but at a slower rate than any of us would like.
Category Archives: recession
Europe in recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week
issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
Links for 2012-11-10
A few links to some items I found of interest.
Imminent Recession?
So says David Malpass in the WSJ:
Representative Ryan on Conditional Macroeconomic Prediction
Recent developments in oil markets
The price of Brent crude oil fell $35/barrel between April and June. But increases this summer have taken about $25 of that back.
“Slow Recovery or Failed Agenda?”
That’s the question posed in the title of yesterday’s op-ed by Ed Lazear, and it’s an excellent question. Looking at the statistics, 13 quarters after the President’s inauguration, non-defense GDP is only 4% higher (in log terms) than when he came into office.
Austerity, Forced and Unforced
The GIIPS countries on the periphery of Europe are undertaking fiscal retrenchment that is largely self-defeating, because they have little choice given the structure of the eurozone’s governance, and Germany’s policy position. The United States, in contrast, is undertaking reducing government spending not because it has to, but because of an ideology that sees austerity as a convenient means of bludgeoning the opponents of a reasoned fiscal policy.
Contractionary Fiscal Contraction, Quantified: European Edition
From Deutsche Bank, “Fighting the Clock,” Fixed Income (May 2012) [not online], some estimates of changes in structural balances, multipliers, and output impacts:
Expansionary Fiscal Contraction in Action (or Not)
The recession in the UK is even worse than first reported.