US, Euro area, and UK GDP Trajectories Compared, and the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis
Category Archives: recession
Asymmetries in Aggregate Supply in Two Frameworks
And Implications for Current Macro Policy
Econbrowser recession indicator index up to 30.5%
The BEA released today its comprehensive national account revisions, according to which real GDP grew at a 1.7% annual rate in 2013:Q2. Although this was above the 1.1% rate that many analysts were expecting, the new estimates also revise down the growth rates that were previously reported for 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q1, with the growth rate over these quarters now estimated to have been 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively, down from the 0.4% and 1.8% figures that had been reported last month.
Sovereign debt concerns in 2013
Interest rates on government debt for a number of European countries– notably Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain– shot up considerably during 2010-2012. Those yields have fallen significantly from their peaks, though these five countries still face higher borrowing costs than most other countries in Europe.
Another mediocre GDP report: is this the new normal?
The BEA released today its estimate of 2013 first-quarter real GDP, which grew at a 2.5% annual rate from the previous quarter. That’s below the average 3.1% growth rate since World War II, but better than the 2.1% average since the recovery began in 2009:Q3.
ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: U.S. recession began around the middle of last year
I’m dubious, but I will not “pull a Lazear”. Or a Don Luskin for that matter.
GDP falling again
The BEA released today its estimate of 2012 fourth-quarter real GDP, which declined slightly from the third quarter. How scary is that?
The Wages of Austerity, Yet Again: “Britain’s economy flirts with “triple dip” recession”
From Reuters:
The country’s gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts.
The Economy’s Trajectory in 2013
The agreement arrived at on New Year’s day implies that output at the end of 2013 will be between 0.6 to 1.0 percentage points higher than it otherwise would be under what was until New Year’s, current law, according to CBO’s preferred multipliers. The uncertainty arises in part from the unresolved nature of the sequester deal.
Investment and the business cycle
I fell a little behind on blogging with the holidays, so today I’ll outsource to Calculated Risk.