Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Category Archives: Trade Policy
CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”
New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.
Economic Policy Uncertainty through 3/6/2025: Through the Roof!
The 7 day centered moving average is only exceeded by the April 2 and April 23 observations (the latter is “bleach”, if you are wondering).
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s far out negotiating positions”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, written in advance of the March 4 tariffs, was published by Project Syndicate and the Korea Herald.
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
Update to this post.
Browbeating Trump’s Bete Noire into Submission via Trade War
Trump can’t even do that right.
Trade War w/Canada, Mexico
NFP Prospects
Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard IS-LM Model
I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got was a lousy 10% tariff on China, and promises of a concept of a plan for reciprocal tariffs. Well, maybe re-arranging my syllabus will still pay off, if Trump gets his act together for destroying the post-War liberal economic order. Notes for a Trade War (cf. Blanchard, Macroeconomics, latest edition).
Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.