Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
Category Archives: Trade Policy
A Trade War Interpreted in a Blanchard IS-LM Model
I was promised an all-out trade war by Trump, and all I got was a lousy 10% tariff on China, and promises of a concept of a plan for reciprocal tariffs. Well, maybe re-arranging my syllabus will still pay off, if Trump gets his act together for destroying the post-War liberal economic order. Notes for a Trade War (cf. Blanchard, Macroeconomics, latest edition).
Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.
Douglas Irwin in WSJ “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense”
From WSJ today:
Ante-mutua portoriis EPU
…or I wonder how “reciprocal tariffs” will affect economic policy uncertainty measures.
Doug Irwin, On Tariffs
Doug Irwin, my coauthor of International Economics, is in the news today, for obvious reasons.
How Did this Guy Get a Ph.D. in Economics?
From Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, “Trump’s tariff critics are trading on overblown and unfounded fears”:
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump.
I Guess I Picked the Wrong Week…
to you know what (apologies to Abrahams and the Zuckers).
In one day, US taxes roughly $2.4 trn worth of goods (2023 amounts). Biggest one year tax increase in dollar terms since… ever, at $364 bn (if Trump goes through with plans). Automatic escalation clauses if the target countries retaliate (Canada already has declared).
Canadian Oil, Tariffs, and Gas Prices in PADD 2
Should’a bought that EV! Joseph Brusuelas notes tariffs should show up in gas prices in the Midwest pretty quick, as the region gets its oil from Canada.