Classes are about to start, so time to assemble slides on the trade outlook. I put together this graph of US goods exports to and imports from China (would’ve been through November, but for the Federal government shutdown – Jan 8 was release date). Please help me see the victory Mr. Trump keeps on talking about.
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“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”
When Will Trump Deliver on the Trade War: Soybeans
Stock market meltdown, government closure, coup d’etat at DoJ, announced exit from Syria, maybe-exit from Afghanistan, tanks on the Russia-Ukraine border, DPRK still developing nukes, and Mattis departs. But at least we’re winning the trade war, right?
Continue readingUS Gets China to Agree to What It Was Going to Do Anyway
From NYT:
In a significant concession, Mr. Trump will postpone a plan to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent, from 10 percent, on Jan. 1. The Chinese agreed to an unspecified increase in their purchases of American industrial, energy and agricultural products, which Beijing hit with retaliatory tariffs after Mr. Trump targeted everything from steel to consumer electronics.
USDA Speaks
From Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast, released yesterday.
Fiscal year (October/September) 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $141.5 billion, down $1.9 billion from fiscal year 2018 and $3.0 billion from the August 2018 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton. Soybean export volumes are down because of declining Chinese purchases from the United States as a result of trade tensions, and as a record U.S. crop continues to pressure soybean prices lower.
Guest Contribution: “Trade War is Not a Reason to Ease Money”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on November 26th.
So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing.
Origins and Challenges of a Strong Dollar
That’s the title of an op-ed appearing in Nikkei newspaper (日本経済新聞):
US Goods Exports and Trade Policy Uncertainty
At a minimum, trade policy uncertainty has risen. Whether that has resulted in the stagnation in exports is an open question.
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N. Dakota “orphan soybeans” at 236 million bushels
That’s from WaPo. In 2017, the US exported 1.2 billion bushels to China: North Dakota’s orphan soybeans today are nearly 1/5 of total sales to China in 2017…
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