Why haven’t they risen?
Category Archives: Trade Policy
When the Textbook Is Right: Implications of the Trump Fiscal/Trade Regime
Today we learned that through March, the Federal budget deficit was 15% larger than the corresponding point in the last fiscal year — as expected given a not particularly stimulative tax cut (so much for tax cuts paying for themselves, as Stephen Moore claimed) and the ending of spending restraints. The dollar remains at elevated levels, as interest rates have risen. The trade deficit, excluding petroleum, continues to deteriorate. As I explained to my macro class today… it’s all textbook (notes).
A Pyrrhic Victory (Perhaps) on China Trade
From Bradsher in NYT:
…spurred by tariffs and trade tensions, global companies are beginning to shift their supply chains away from China, just as some Trump administration officials had wanted.
Does Policy Uncertainty Matter?
The Atlanta Fed along w/Bloom (Stanford) and Davis (Chicago) survey business operators and finds it does!
Empirically Assessing “a whole world of hurt”
That’s how an unidentified White House official characterized the impact of closing the southern border.
Two Years of “Winning”: Messages from GDP, International Investment Releases
The release of the final release for GDP, and the international investment position provides an opportunity to assess progress on the trade war. I for one have gotten tired of “winning”.
“Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”
That’s the title of the La Follette School Spring Symposium, taking place this Wednesday, 1-6PM at the Wisconsin Memorial Union, ending with:
Guest Contribution: “Xi and Trump Miss a Chance to Expand Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on March 21st.
Why Haven’t Soybean Futures Recovered?
As Brad Setser noted last month, US, Brazilian and Argentine soybean prices have converged, suggesting the end of arbitrage profits.
This Is Winning?
The November trade release on US-China trade:
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