From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:
Category Archives: Trade Policy
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.
“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the figure below.
Miran’s Manifesto
The nominated CEA chair designate, Stephen Miran, has an exposition (h/t Politico)of how protectionism and a depreciating dollar can go together. As far as I can make out, it involves massive forex intervention, possibly sterilized, along with “user fees” on foreign held-UST’s…
Intra-industry Trade Estimated
Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he doesn’t explain why. I’d say intra-industry trade (IIT) – a staple of academic research since the 1980s – is one reason, but that does not provide justification for protection. In fact, his ignorance of IIT suggests his case for protectionism is ill-founded.
When Econ 101 Isn’t Enough: Oren Cass on Trade
In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism.
Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down
U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop.
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts.
Trump: “Tariffs are going to make our country rich”
From Reuters:
In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press that aired on Sunday, Trump said he did not believe that consumers ultimately pay the price of tariffs, adding “I think they’re beautiful.”
Did Wisconsin Manufacturing Thrive during Trump Trade War 1.0?
A retrospective: