A CMU-UW Madison-Columbia U-Rand zoom event on “Managing the US-China Trade and Technology Conflict: Is There a Better Way?” (April 17th) with experts (some of whom are coauthors, colleagues, and friends of mine).
Category Archives: Trade Policy
“So China is now paying us billions of dollars in tariffs”
That’s economist Trump in 2018, as cited in Coy (2018). Now, from USITC “Economic Impact of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs on U.S. Industries” (page 22), a conflicting assessment.
The Commission’s econometric model estimates that tariffs under sections 232 and 301 resulted in a nearly one-to-one increase in prices of U.S. imports following the tariffs. This implies that a 10 percent ad valorem tariff raised the price of U.S. imports from China by about 10 percent. This nearly complete pass-through (meaning that prices received by exporters were largely unaffected and prices paid by U.S. importers increased by the same amount as the tariffs) is unusual but has been similarly found by other recent studies, which conclude that U.S. importers have borne almost the full burden of section 301 tariffs.
Volatility in External Demand
Advance estimate for January 2023 goods exports out today. Big jump, compared to the pre-pandemic past, but not compared to the recent past.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook and the Impact of Recent Policies
Last Thursday, I talked on WPR’s Central Time about the national economy and Wisconsin’s outlook given President Biden’s policies. I noted that the macro outlook had improved substantially since last December, as the economy proved more resilient than expected, and inflation decelerated more than anticipated. That was true nationally, as well as locally.
Guest Contribution: “Let the WTO Referee Carbon Border Tariffs”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
World Trade, through Trump’s Trade War, Covid/Recession, Russian Aggression
From the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), world trade volume through April 2022:
Tracking the Russian Economy: Are Sanctions Working? [Updated]
[Updated 7/22 using 7/22 BOFIT Weekly Monitor information] It depends on what you mean by “working”, even if Russian GDP (as reported) hasn’t collapsed yet in the reported statistics yet, the worst is likely yet to come. And some effects won’t be easily measurable.
How Have Wisconsin Goods Exports Fared since 2018
I’m giving a presentation on what determines Wisconsin exports. Here’s an interesting finding – since 2018, real goods exports have underperformed what would’ve been expected based on rest-of-world GDP and the real value of the US dollar.
Empirical Estimates of Steel Tariff Pass Through
What is the proportion of tariff increases passed through into domestic price increases for steel, in the wake of the Section 232 actions. Some of the oft cited estimates pertain to early on in the trade war. With the benefit of additional data, we have more evidence confirming that — unlike the tariffs imposed on most other goods — pass through is less for steel.
On Tariffs, and Large Country Assumptions
Suppose the US puts a 10% tariff on imports from a foreign country. Will import prices (inclusive of tariffs) rise 10%? It depends on the elasticity of supply of said imports. If the elasticity of supply is less than perfect, then import prices will rise less than 10%. To see this, consider the most basic tariff graph in the known universe (from Feenstra-Taylor) – if you can’t understand it, abandon all hope for comprehension of tariff policy.