February coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from slightly over a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.

Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]

The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the Q3 GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.

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Below are the peer-reviewed journal articles authored or co-authored by Stephen Moore, CNN “economic expert”:

This list might be incomplete.

His non-peer reviewed articles/books include the annually published Rich States, Poor States, and the associated Laffer-Moore-Williams economic outlook ranking. My assessment of the empirical relevance of their index is in this post.

Menzie might be abut slow on approving comments…and fixing errors and omissions…

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That’s the title of this year’s Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs Spring Symposium, on April 3 (organized by Mark Copelovitch and myself):

More information and registration here.

Our spring symposium two years ago focused on Europe in Crisis, bringing in Gillian Tett (FT), and Peter Hall (Harvard) as keynote speakers.

California GDP has grown a cumulative 13 percentage points more than Wisconsin over the Brown and Walker years. Employment, 10 percentage points…

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St. Paul’s Chapel, Broadway and Fulton Street
The Choir of Trinity Wall Street, NOVUS NY, and Trinity Baroque Orchestra

March 7 and 9, 2019 at 7pm

Time’s Arrow

Laura Elise Schwendinger Artemisia

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March 5–9, 2019
St. Paul’s Chapel, Broadway and Fulton Street
The Choir of Trinity Wall Street, NOVUS NY, and Trinity Baroque Orchestra
Free

Continuing the commitment to amplifying the voices of female artists across multiple mediums, this year’s Time’s Arrow festival juxtaposes old and new stories of the biblical figure Susanna. Exploring sensitive themes of our time, the festival includes the fully staged world premiere of the new opera Artemisia (composer Laura Schwendinger, librettist Ginger Strand and Stage Director Christopher Alden) and concerts of Handel’s Susanna as Trinity continues its presentation of the composer’s oratorios. Artemisia tells the story of the Baroque artist who portrayed herself as Susanna in her famous painting Susanna and the Elders.

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on February 25th.

Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast — a lot faster than expansions. Who’s forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).