As of 24 January, according to the Information Analysis Center:
Source: Information Analysis Center.
Discussion of presence of Russian T-72-B3 tanks in Ukraine, here.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Judy Shelton to the Fed?
From the White House:
A “Critique” of Confidence Intervals
Steven Kopits opines on statistics:
I don’t like confidence intervals for two reasons:
David Romer: “In Praise of Confidence Intervals”
That’s the name of a new NBER working paper, and a paper presented at ASSA (slides; I didn’t get to see myself). As I get to teach applied econometrics for public policy this semester, I thought this was interesting paper. From the abstract:
GAO: “Office of Management and Budget—Withholding of Ukraine Security Assistance”
From GAO today on “the drug deal”:
In the summer of 2019, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) withheld from obligation funds appropriated to the Department of Defense (DOD) for security assistance to Ukraine. In order to withhold the funds, OMB issued a series of nine apportionment schedules with footnotes that made all unobligated balances unavailable for obligation.
Faithful execution of the law does not permit the President to substitute his own policy priorities for those that Congress has enacted into law. OMB withheld funds for a policy reason, which is not permitted under the Impoundment Control Act (ICA). The withholding was not a programmatic delay. Therefore, we conclude that OMB violated the ICA.
Year in Review, 2019: “Victory at IAD” and Other Alternative Facts
It’s the year that Donald Trump said that in the war against Great Britain, “Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do, and at Fort McHenry, under the rockets’ red glare, it had nothing but victory.”
Madison, WI, December 17th – A March
To Impeach Trump
© Lauren Justice for The New York Times. Protesters gathered outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis.
Source: Vigdor, “Protesters Clamor for Trump’s Impeachment on Eve of House Votes,” NYT, 17 December 2019.
In Defense of Applying Cointegration Testing and Error Correction Models
In honor of Mark Thoma’s retirement, let me discuss the relevance of one of his papers (coauthored with Tim Duy) regarding the usefulness of imposing cointegrating restrictions.
Bleg: Examples of Bad Econometrics to Teach
I’ve been tapped to teach the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence at the La Follette School. I need examples of excruciatingly bad econometrics to discuss. Please post your suggestions as comments. In 2016, I assigned students to examine the empirical content of “business conditions” indices, like Stephen Moore’s/ALEC Economic Outlook rankings.
Making America Great Again (in Indebtedness): Net International Investment Position
NIIP is the difference between US holdings of assets abroad, minus foreign holdings of US assets. Shown below is the ratio of NIIP to GDP.