on the upside. But the disjuncture between (inverted) misery and sentiment (and confidence) continues.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Russia Invasion Skeptics on the Eve of the War
Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:
Sentiment down 46%, Confidence down 25% Relative to Pandemic Eve
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.
GDP Q4 Nowcasts of November 17th
Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.
GDP and Interest Rate Forecasts and Recession from the SPF
The Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released Monday. Accelerated growth is forecast, no yield curve dis-inversion, and triggering of the Sahm rule.
Taiwan Straits Balance of Forces, 2023
From DoD’s 2023 report on PRC’s military and security developments.
Some Hate Crimes, over Time
Risk and Uncertainty, Market and Geopolitical
One way to visualize:
Mr. Johnson’s Modest* Conjecture for Saving Social Security
By happenstance, I was covering the challenges facing the Social Security and Medicare trust funds in my course on Wednesday. On that same day, Mr. Michael Johnson became the new Speaker of the House. In the past, he has provided an implied solution. From Newsweek:
“We are in a soft recession right now”
That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.