NIIP is the difference between US holdings of assets abroad, minus foreign holdings of US assets. Shown below is the ratio of NIIP to GDP.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Neel Kashkari at Madison: “Kashkari says he takes comfort from yield curve shape”
Should he? FRB Minneapolis Fed President was at UW Madison today, and stated:
“The fact that the yield curve is now uninverted gives me some indication that we have taken the brakes off the economy,”
“CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update”
From the Highlights of a new CBO study:
If the Administration Is So Concerned about Corruption…
shouldn’t it be doing something about the Russian Federation as well?
Sick of “Winning”: Trade Deficit Edition
Since January 2017:
Gross vs. Net Investment, Pre- and Post-TCJA
In other words, the sugar high fades. Brad Setser has noted how weak nonresidential fixed investment has been, despite the TCJA. It looks worse when looking at net — rather than gross — investment.
Recession Probabilities, September-October 2020
Plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit yields 37% probability of recession in October next year. Adjusting the spread by the 10 year term premium estimate (Kim-Wright) implies only a 6.5% probability in September (vs. 46.4% plain vanilla). Augmenting the term spread with the 10 year term premium implies a 42.2% probability for September…
Exactly How Much Does the Mainstream Literature Ignore Demographics?
Reader Steven Kopits writes about the economics profession:
MMT in (Relatively) Plain English
The Yield Curve Has Dis-Inverted. Are We Safe Now?
Figure 1: 10 year-3 month constant maturity Treasury spreads (blue), 10 year-2 year (red), 5 year-3 month (green), in %. Source: Federal Reserve, Treasury.