Call For Papers
July 6-7, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive spike in concerns and uncertainties and raised challenges in macroeconomic forecasting surrounding almost every aspect. The purpose of this virtual workshop is to bring together researchers working on various aspects of measurement, modelling, evaluation and forecasting of COVID and its impact on the economy.
Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC as of today:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Manufacturing and trade sales for February assumed to be at stochastic trend for 2018-2020M01. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (3/26 release), and author’s calculations.
The 20181918-20 pandemic waxed and waned. This suggests there is not necessarily a quick return to “normalcy”.
“Red Dawn” emails documenting how everybody who was knowledgeable about pandemic threats knew by 1/28, even as Trump kept on comparing the novel coronavirus to the flu up to March 9th – example:
Email from Dr. James Lawler, professor, and doctor who served in the WH under Pres. G.W. Bush, & adviser to Pres. Barack Obama. More emails, see here, article here.
I still wait to find out when the President’s Daily Brief on the coronavirus threat was circulated.
From ABC News today:
“Analysts concluded [a novel coronavirus pandemic] could be a cataclysmic event,” one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. “It was then briefed multiple times to” the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.
From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis…
We need the PDB declassified and released, to understand the full magnitude of the public policy disaster this administration has visited upon America, just like this PDB of August 6, 2001 “Bin Laden determined to strike in US” was released.
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope, click here.
Elgar’s Nimrod Variation IX, from the Enigma Variations – musicians of the Calgary Philharmonic Orchestra and the Edmonton Symphony Orchestra.
In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, we wonder why we did not prepare adequately and efficiently. Trump has blamed China, Obama, the media, the governors, General Motors and the hospitals.
I suspect there are historical parallels, and someday we will see the documentation. Like below:
Just finished a conversation on Wisconsin Public Radio “Central Time”. Here are some papers that informed my talk.
