Year-on-year 2022 is -2.1%.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise
Consider the following three examples of seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data.
Trade and Financial Policy Openness in EMDE’s, 1975-2019
Working on another project, I found this interesting correlation between the IMF’s “Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions” (MATR) (Estafania-Flores, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose (2022)) and the Chinn-Ito (JDE 2006) measure of financial openness (KAOPEN).
Just Because You Provide a Link, Does Not Mean that Link Is Worth Reading
This reprint of a The worst statistical analysis I have seen this year is motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall’s tendency to provide any ol’ link as support for a given position (actually, I believe it’s the worst I’ve *ever* seen).
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Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/11: Up, Up and Away, or Slow Deceleration?
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/11/2023 were released today.
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
I’m reminded of that statement (perhaps apocryphal) when I think of Senator Johnson’s views on Social Security. From WPR:
Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/4/2023 and Monthly GDP
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/4/2023, released today, compared against monthly GDP.
Carl Walsh Blogging “Thoughts on Fed Policy”
Carl Walsh, author of Monetary Theory and Policy, joins the econ-blogging community at his blog. His most recent post is on the four surges in inflation.
Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine
From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.
Rookie Economist Errors: A Compendium
I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.