From people who extrapolate from personal observations, while dismissing statistics; to wit:
The chip shortage is ending. My Whirlpool contact told me they are now back to full production and going downstream to a HVAC company I am related to, all chip shortages ended in late summer.
Auto will be over by Halloween. Production of new cars will surge into 2021. Creating deflationary pressures. People like Condon don’t anticipate, they create intellectual fantasies.
That was a comment by Gregory Bott in September 2021.
So read this latest comment (from today) regarding the oil price increase/Russian invasion impact on economic prospects with that prognostication in mind:
I see little actual disruption. My guess by May, this will be reversed. Much like the coming upward revisions to gdp/payrolls in 2020-21. Be careful with struggling government data.
Gregory Bott may turn out to be right in the end. But I’m not betting on it (and I just really don’t know how people can be confident about things when the situation is so fluid).
