Near month, over past two years:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
For PubAffr819: What Not to Say as a Policy Analyst
(1) do not make absolutist statements without knowing the nature of the data; (2) Do not abuse statistical terminology; (3) do not assert a conspiracy is in place just because the data do not conform to your preferred narrative.
Economists in Favor of Banking Deregulation, 2017
Before the The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018, what economists/analysts were in support of a loosening of requirements.
How Have Market Expectations of the Fed Funds Path Changed?
Comparing CME implied Fed funds for the March 22 and May 3 meetings shows a downshift, which seems attributable to developments surrounding SVB.
Spreads and Risk/Uncertainty Measures post-Powell MPR and post-SVB
VIX and EPU up, inflation breakeven down, and term spreads diverge.
Russia: Waiting for Inflation?
I found this paragraph from a Re:Russia article of interest:
January 2023 Russian GDP Growth is -3.2% y/y
Year-on-year 2022 is -2.1%.
Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise
Consider the following three examples of seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data.
Trade and Financial Policy Openness in EMDE’s, 1975-2019
Working on another project, I found this interesting correlation between the IMF’s “Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions” (MATR) (Estafania-Flores, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose (2022)) and the Chinn-Ito (JDE 2006) measure of financial openness (KAOPEN).
Just Because You Provide a Link, Does Not Mean that Link Is Worth Reading
This reprint of a The worst statistical analysis I have seen this year is motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall’s tendency to provide any ol’ link as support for a given position (actually, I believe it’s the worst I’ve *ever* seen).
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