Yesterday, I asked if odds were flipping. As of midnight on PredictIt:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt):
Growth in Swing States
As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months:
Odds: PredictIt 4pm ET
For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents.
Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today:
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment
A snapshot as of July:
“44th International Symposium On Forecasting | Dijon, France”
International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.
What Do Joseph Stiglitz, George A. Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden , Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth, William F. Sharpe, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, and Robert B. Wilson Have In Common?
(1) They all have been awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, and (2) they oppose Mr. Trump’s economic agenda.