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A Depressed Growth Trajectory: The Wall Street Journal July Survey

Forecasters are downbeat relative April survey (Figure 1).  And about a third forecast negative Q/Q growth in 2022Q2, but the mean (and median) forecast is for positive growth, as shown in Figure 2 (though there being two consecutive quarters of negative growth are not central to determining whether NBER BCDC declares a recession). About a fifth of respondents predict at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth starting later in 2022-23.

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