Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/4/2023, released today, compared against monthly GDP.
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Carl Walsh Blogging “Thoughts on Fed Policy”
Carl Walsh, author of Monetary Theory and Policy, joins the econ-blogging community at his blog. His most recent post is on the four surges in inflation.
Up to 50 M-1 Abrams MBTs to Ukraine
From NYT:
The Biden administration plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said on Tuesday, in what would be a major step in arming Kyiv as it tries to seize back its territory from Russia.
Rookie Economist Errors: A Compendium
I start teaching a couple classes tomorrow; here are some cautionary notes.
Deja Vu. Oder, “Haben Sie einen Professor zu melden?”
From Turning Point USA‘s website:
Guest Contribution: “Emotion in Euro Area Monetary Policy Communication and Bond Yields: The Draghi Era”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Dimitrios Kanelis (Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Müun) and Pierre Siklos, (Wilfrid Laurier University and CAMA at ANU). The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Why Friends Shouldn’t Let Friends Mix and Match Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Unadjusted Data in Calculating Changes
Reader Bruce Hall comments in his defense of calculating an 18 month change using not seasonally adjusted CPI data, and then 6 months of seasonally adjusted data:
A Re-Post of a Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
A Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), time is at a premium. Videos from an established media outfit (Reuters, Bloomberg, NY Times, WSJ, CNN, etc.) are not subject to this proviso.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2023
With the release of December 2022 industrial production (-0.7% vs. -0.1 Bloomberg consensus, m/m), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with IHS Markit monthly GDP: