All suggesting slowing growth…maybe
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“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”
Paper by me, Hiro Ito, and Robert McCauley. From the abstract.
Policy Uncertainty Six Months, A.T.*
* “After Trump” .
Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty index (news) (blue, left scale), US Trade Policy Uncertainty categorical index (red, right scale), both monthly averages of daily data. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, NBER peak at dashed line; orange denotes Trump administration. Source: policyuncertainty.com, and NBER.
Part of this decline in uncertainty could be attributable to the economic management team.
Macroeconomic Management in the Biden Administration
Here is an update to this post, on who’s where at the top of select agencies.
Baumeister, Leiva-León, and Sims: “Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions”
Section 232 Report on Automobiles Released (over 2 years after submission to Trump)
More Great Quotes from the Past
From a reader in 2018:
The people 2slugs disdains can overhaul an engine and cultivate a field way better than 2slugs, and have way more “common sense” than many university professors. The supposed nincompoop Trump voters in his 2 years have lead a national economic performance that Obama in his 8 years, lead by “elites” such as 2slugbaits, never did, and in fact said was impossible. Who is the expert here?
In 2017Q1-20Q1, GDP growth averaged 1.9%, and in Obama’s second term averaged 2.4%. (In Trump’s first two years, GDP growth averaged 2.6%. To be clear, what mainstream economists said was impossible was the 4% or 5% growth Trump promised.
Great Quotes from the Past
In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:
Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year
As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…