That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Donald Trump Proposes Violating Treaty Agreements
From CNN:
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021)
One of the Three is Not Like the Others: The Partisan Divide and Economic Sentiment
Here’s the U.Michigan sentiment indices for three partisan groupings, vs. the SF Fed News Sentiment index.
Employment in January: Benchmark Revisions, Seasonality, Population Controls
The Employment Situation release for January 2024 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at +353 vs. +187 thousands Bloomberg consensus. (Last year at this time, NFP again surprised, at +517 thousand exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of +115 thousand.)
Evaluating 25 Years of ECB (Policy)
On 16 January 2024, the second ECB@25 Symposium was hosted by Professor Mary Pieterse-Bloem (Erasmus School of Economics Professor of Financial Markets) at our Pavilion.
Sentiment, Confidence, News: January 2024
The Conference Board’s confidence index is up, following U.Michigan’s survey of sentiment.
The Atavistic Component of Republican Economic Sentiment as Overall Sentiment Jumps
One of the mysteries of recent times has been the divergence between conditions (say, as measured by the Misery Index) and measured consumer sentiment. Figure 1 shows the U.Michigan sentiment index (FRED variable UMCSENT) vs. the sum of inflation and unemployment rates over the 2016-24M01 period. The jump in UMCSENT of 9 was about 2 standard deviations (for the 2016-23 period), on top of the nearly two deviation jump in December, and goes some way to redressing the gap.