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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Key Naval Deployments as of 9 April 2024
From FleetTracker:
Manufacturing’s Progress
Output, employment and value added:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment along with Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, and Sahm Rule
Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:
2024 Lampman Memorial Lecture: Susan Dynarski
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
From BEA:
An Event Study: News and Trump Media and Technology Group, 4/1/2024
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently news came today.
The Arrogance of Ignorance
Reader JohnH berates mainstream economists for ignoring the distribution of income while focusing on the average, despite multiple attempts to point out that I’ve talked about median incomes and wages a lot. To wit:
Guest Contribution: “The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I thank Sohaib Nasim for research assistance and Emil Kaneti for catching a mistake in an earlier draft.