Before the The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018, what economists/analysts were in support of a loosening of requirements.
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How Have Market Expectations of the Fed Funds Path Changed?
Comparing CME implied Fed funds for the March 22 and May 3 meetings shows a downshift, which seems attributable to developments surrounding SVB.
Spreads and Risk/Uncertainty Measures post-Powell MPR and post-SVB
VIX and EPU up, inflation breakeven down, and term spreads diverge.
Russia: Waiting for Inflation?
I found this paragraph from a Re:Russia article of interest:
January 2023 Russian GDP Growth is -3.2% y/y
Year-on-year 2022 is -2.1%.
Seasonal Adjustment in the Wake of Big Shocks, Economic and Otherwise
Consider the following three examples of seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted data.
Trade and Financial Policy Openness in EMDE’s, 1975-2019
Working on another project, I found this interesting correlation between the IMF’s “Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions” (MATR) (Estafania-Flores, Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose (2022)) and the Chinn-Ito (JDE 2006) measure of financial openness (KAOPEN).
Just Because You Provide a Link, Does Not Mean that Link Is Worth Reading
This reprint of a The worst statistical analysis I have seen this year is motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall’s tendency to provide any ol’ link as support for a given position (actually, I believe it’s the worst I’ve *ever* seen).
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Weekly Macro Indicators thru 2/11: Up, Up and Away, or Slow Deceleration?
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 2/11/2023 were released today.
“We had to destroy the village in order to save it.”
I’m reminded of that statement (perhaps apocryphal) when I think of Senator Johnson’s views on Social Security. From WPR: