Real defense spending is higher than at the Reagan buildup, but is (much) lower as a ratio of real GDP.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Structures Investment Booms (esp. in Manufacturing)
From the advance release:
GDP, GDO, GDP+
GDP is only one measure of income. Following up on Jim’s post on GDP (and housing), here are others.
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Here’s a picture of the series the NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP.
GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
“It was the ‘meh’ of times. It was the worst of times…”
Conference Board is on the former, while the U. Michigan sides with the latter.
The Manufacturing Construction Boom and Nonresidential Investment
Deputy Asst Secretary Tara Sinclair and Asst Sec Van Nostrand and Special Asst Gupta discuss the ongoing boom in manufacturing construction. Here’s one graph:
Real Defense Consumption and Investment, 1960-2023Q1
SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth
“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok: