If you’re an economic policy analyst, you might get the feeling that the crazy-high uncertainty surrounding policy has abated. You might even feel that more profoundly if your portfolio includes trade policy…
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On the Word “Eminent”
Reader EConned writes about Judy Shelton:
One can disagree with Shelton’s policy stances, public statements, writings, etc… but there’s no doubt she’s an eminent economist. Debating the substance of her views is great but I certainly don’t see the need to just “hate on her” I. The fashion of this comment (and, honestly, the OP). There are Americans including policy makers of past, present, and future who respect her opinions… for better or for worse.
Now, I know “eminence” is in the eye of the beholder. As an academic economist, I would be tempted to go to “Google Scholar” or the successor to the Social Sciences Citation Index to make my own judgment.
Personally, I don’t know Dr. Shelton, have never met Dr. Shelton, nor corresponded with Dr. Shelton. However, I find her views on government statistics strange, her views on currency manipulation confusing, and her malleability with respect to the conduct of monetary policy troubling.
Thus Confirming Everything I Thought about Both The Independent Institute and Judy Shelton
Popping into my email inbox today, a press release titled:
Renowned Economist and Author Judy L. Shelton Joins the Independent Institute as Senior Fellow
Measuring the Informal Sector
Some methods for estimating the informal sector, and characterizing the cyclical behavior thereof, from Ceyhun Elgin, Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Shu Yu (2019).
Some Statistics and Thoughts Regarding Causality
Consider the incidence of hate crimes directed against Asian-Americans/Pacific-Islanders as reported to the FBI.
CPI: Growth Rate vs. Level
Headline CPI inflation is up. But the level matters.
Recent Developments in Interest Rates and Spreads
The five year constant maturity Treasury yield has risen; but after accounting for the estimated term premium, the increase is much more modest, if not negative. Moreover, expected 5 year inflation has not on net moved much over 2021.
Oil Prices: Futures, Survey Expectations
Despite the recent runup in oil prices, measures of expectations do not spike.
The US Economic Outlook: March WSJ Survey
Forecasted GDP rises yet again, with considerable dispersion.
A Literature Review on Economic Policy Response to Covid-19
An excellent review of empirical findings regarding the various provisions is contained in this FEDS Notes article, by Elena Falcettoni, and Vegard Nygaard.
The COVID-19 pandemic has kept economists busy analyzing many aspects of economic side of the coronavirus impact. This note is meant to present an overview of what economists have analyzed regarding the implications of two of the main components of the CARES Act that affect individuals: the increased UI benefits and the stimulus checks. We present the findings from the literature on these two policies with an eye on potential future governmental interventions.
Taken together, these two components have been effective at providing stimulus and lowering poverty. In the aggregate, Kaplan et al. (2020) (PDF) find that the initial UI benefits and stimulus payments boosted aggregate consumption by 2 percentage points, while Bayer et al. (2020) show that the CARES transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by up to 5 percentage points.
Complete note here.