From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.

From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”

From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”

Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.

From WaPo:

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said Tuesday that he would be open to the Supreme Court overturning its 1967 ruling that legalized interracial marriage nationwide to allow states to independently decide the issue.

He later revised and extended his remarks.

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Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:

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A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.

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FromKateryna Yushchenko.

Source: Kateryna Yushchenko.

Translation: Гаага = Hague

Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.

VIX, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Geopolitical Risk:

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As declassified by the President, a transcript of the July 25, 2019 telecon between Mr. Trump and the President of Ukraine:

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A post on VoxUkraine by Yuriy Gorodnichenko (Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley):

…

February 24, 2022 is the day of infamy too: Russia attacked Ukraine, bombed Ukrainian cities, killed innocent Ukrainians on the Ukrainian soil. It can’t be clearer: Russia is the aggressor; Ukraine is the victim. Ukraine has only one threat to Putin: Ukraine can be a free and successful country and thus give hope to Russians to become one day a free, successful country too. As I said before, this is the war with far reaching consequences for the global order, for the free world, and for the security for each of us no matter where we are.

It is a test for all of us.

Entire post here.

One rule of thumb is that a successful counterinsurgency requires something on the order of 20-25 troops per 1000 population (Goode, 2010). Ukraine’s population is 44 million. Simple division and multiplication yields 880,000 to 1,100,000.

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