A sequel to my rebuttal to an anti-log manifesto:
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I Bet (Figuratively) Tonight Is the Night: Rosenstein Edition
From PredictIt:
Imagine: US Effective Tariff Rates with Another $100 Billion Imports Covered
From Goldman Sachs, “How Easy Is It to Win a Trade War?” (Stehn/Hatzius) today:
July Soybean Futures as of Noon, Today
Thanks, Trump!
Source: ino.
“Parts of floor polishers of subheading 8479.89.20; parts of carpet sweepers”
That’s HTS code 84799041, on the Section 301 hit list released today. Mr. Trump has the thanks of a grateful Nation for stopping intellectual property theft in this important category.
The entire list is here.
There’s a 30 60 day consultation period. Since around $50 billion of goods is targeted, China will likely impose proportional measures if and when retaliation occurs.
Ready, Shoot, Aim: Who Else Gets Hurt in a Sino-US Trade War?
Because the value added of Chinese exports to the United States is fairly low (i.e., exports incorporate lots of foreign components), it is unclear how much damage would be inflicted on bystanders. Wells Fargo uses data on trade in value added to show Taiwan’s exposure.
Guest Contribution: “Can Technology Hurt Productivity?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate on March 19.
US-Canada Bilateral Trade Balance in Goods and Services at Quarterly Frequency
Is the trend more important than if there is actually a surplus or deficit, as one commenter suggests? On a bilateral basis, I don’t think either is particularly important, but as a matter of fact I think we need to verify that the US-Canada bilateral trade balance in goods and services is (barely) positive in 2017, and trending upward on a quarterly basis.
Figure 1: US-Canada trade balance in 000’s US$, s.a. (blue), and 12 quarter trailing moving average (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER, author’s calculations.
Some GDP Nowcasts
Figure 1: Real GDP growth, actual (bold black), forecast of NY Fed Nowcast 3/16 (green), Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3/16 (red), Goldman-Sachs 3/19 (red), Macroeconomic Advisers 3/16 (blue), Merrill Lynch 3/19 (blue), q/q SAAR. Source: CR, Macro Advisers, Goldman-Sachs.
GDP growth in Q1 has been lower in the past years, few consistent with residual seasonality.
Where Should POTUS Get His/Her Data From?
My view is that if we pay hundreds of millions of dollars per year (we should probably spend more) on collecting and analyzing economic data, we should use that data. Yet, when Mr. Trump debates trade policy with the Canadian prime minister, by his own admission he makes up numbers.