Reader Bruce Hall, commenting on the focus on mass shootings and semi-automatic weapon use, remarks:
The focus on the AR-15 is illogical.
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Semi-automatic Rifle Use and Mass Shooting Casualties, 1982M08-2018M04
Figure 1: Cumulative mass shooting fatalities from incidents where semi-automatic rifles used (blue), non-fatal injured (light blue), fatalities where other weapons (handguns, semi-automatic handguns, rifles, shotguns) used (red), non-fatal injured (pink), through April 2018. Light green denotes assault weapons ban. Orange denotes 2017M01-2018M04. Source: Mother Jones, accessed 5/18/2018, and author’s calculations.
The above graph does not incorporate the estimated 10 deaths and additional injuries incurred today in Santa Fe, TX.
Cumulative Mass Shooting Casualties since 2009M01, 2017M01
Thankfully, Mr. Trump in conjunction with the Republican controlled Congress have implemented policies to address this issue in manner supported by evidence-based research.
Figure 1: Cumulative fatalities from mass shootings since 2009M01 (blue), since 2017M01 (red), on a log scale. May observation assumes lower bound of 8 fatalities. Source: Mother Jones accessed 5/18, news accounts, author’s calculations.
It took 4-1/2 years from 2009M01 to match the number of fatalities that have been recorded in the 16 months since 2017M01.
Is the economy overheating?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the unemployment rate was down to 3.9% in April. That’s nearly as low as it’s been any time in the last half century. Does that mean the U.S. economy faces some problems ahead?
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Over 1100 Economists, 15 Nobel Laureates and Republican and Democratic CEA Members Agree
Don’t repeat the mistake of Smoot-Hawley tariffs.
Prognostications on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity
From WSJ op-ed via AEI:
The second factor [in the slow recovery] is less obvious, but possibly also of great importance…. Congress and [the] President signaled their intentions to introduce major changes in taxes, government spending and regulations–changes that could radically transform the American economy.
…
… other government proposals created greater uncertainty and risk for businesses and investors. …
Liberal Biased Uncertainty Index Elevated
Reader CoRev argues that economic uncertainty indicators such as the Baker, Bloom and Davis based on content analysis of newspaper articles are instances of GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). Here is a plot of another indicator suggesting current elevated uncertainty.
Figure 0: Measure of risk/uncertainty (red). Observation for April is data through 4/23.
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A Dummies Approach to Trumpian Uncertainty
Mass Shooting Casualties since November 2016
Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning 2016M11; deaths inflicted by non-Muslims (dark red), wounded inflicted by non-Muslims (pink), deaths inflicted by Muslims (dark blue), wounded inflicted by Muslims (light blue). Source: Mother Jones. Tabulations of religion of perpetrator by author.
Longer perspective displayed in this post.
Is Trump Really Special? Economic Policy Uncertainty Edition
Despite reader Ed Hanson‘s comment:
[T]he current Monthly EPU is at an elevated level, but it has been at this elevated level 7 out of the past 9 years. The elevated value is better described as normal for about the last decade.
And his concluding admonishment:
Perspective, Menzie
I still believe that economic policy uncertainty as measured by the news based index (which Ed Hanson was discussing) is elevated.
Figure 1: Monthly Economic Policy Uncertainty, news based (blue), baseline (red), as reported. Source: http://www.policyuncertainty.com.