The Wisconsin Department of Revenue has released its Economic Outlook, dated November 22nd. The forecasts incorporate assumptions that include: “November IHS Markit forecast shows a slowing down of the economic recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Several high-frequency indicators point to a further deceleration in October, but the forecast does not include a double dip. ….Wisconsin personal income growth accelerated in 2020 pushed by the federal stimulus funds, but it’s expected to decline 1.9% in 2021, as the fiscal stimulus fades. …The current forecast assumes no further fiscal stimulus and that a vaccine will be available by mid2021.”
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Employment Down
From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:
[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.
Wisconsin Employment in September
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
A Funny Forecasting Story
Last night, I knew I was on tap to talk about Wisconsin GDP numbers today (Wisconsin Public Radio report here). I wondered what a naive forecast would imply, so I regressed first difference of log Wisconsin GDP on first difference of log US GDP and a lagged Wisconsin GDP first difference, to obtain this forecast…(red square)
Wisconsin Q2 GDP
Wisconsin GDP declined by 32.6% (SAAR) in 2020Q2, compared to 31.4% for the US. BEA’s release today notes Wisconsin’s Q/Q growth in Q2 ranked 35th.
Pondering Elevated Wisconsin Covid-19 Infection Rates Resulting from a Successful Judgment for Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty
Striking down Governor Evers’s mask mandate in the name of process means fatalities almost assuredly must be higher than otherwise. From AP today:
Swing State Wisconsin: The Major Issues
Presented by UW–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs and WisPolitics.com (October 2, 12 noon central)
Wisconsin Employment in August
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
“Scott Walker: Wisconsin’s agricultural, manufacturing jobs would be ‘devastated’ under Biden leadership”
That’s title of a FoxNews article. Like all things emanating from the former governor, you have to look at the data to assess. Let’s consider first agriculture under Walker.
August Wisconsin Employment: Continued Slow Recovery?
My guess, based on a first differences specification of Wisconsin employment on national, in logs, 2019-2020M07.