Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, June release (brown), July release (pink), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.
DWD will release July numbers tomorrow. Here’s my guess for employment. First, what we know now.
Nonfarm payroll employment slightly exceed June 22 Economic Outlook forecast.
Just released (even as the Trump administration retains its January forecast), Wisconsin Economic Outlook June update. Employment is now forecasted to rise, at a higher level than earlier predicted. The implied pace of employment growth is almost the same as in May.
Like the rest of the nation, employment in Wisconsin recovered slightly. Unanswered is how sustainable the recovery is.
I’m interviewed on Wisconsin Public Radio today, in the wake of declining Wisconsin exports.
State level GDP data for 2019Q3 are out today. If you were wondering, Wisconsin lagged both the US and Minnesota. Since 18Q4 (the last full Walker quarter), Wisconsin growth has matched Minnesota growth.
Or, “Ready, fire, aim”. From Mitchell et al. “The Economics of a Targeted Economic Development Subsidy,” Mercatus Center:
Or not.
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and Wisconsin (red), in logs normalized to 0 in September 2018. Light orange shading denotes Walker administration. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit was fully phased in as of January 2016.
National manufacturing employment peaks nearly a year later, August 2019.