Revisiting the Recession Call of 2022H1
Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that we were in recession, to wit, Steven Kopits, January 2, 2023:
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When a Purported Policy Analyst Writes: “Does a confidence interval … change what you would have done or should do? If it doesn’t, then it’s a mere artefact, a curiosity, but of no use to people making real world decisions”
You should run away from that “policy analyst” as fast as you can. The above is a quote from Steven Kopits, who styles himself a policy analyst. His entire comment is here.
Some Textbooks
Public Service Announcement, for those who wish to talk intelligently about macro, instead of ranting. Here’s what I use (in response to Steven Kopits asking “What the he** do you teach your students, Menzie”). The following are free use, or older editions that have been superseded by newer.
Are You Better Off than You Were Five Years Ago?
Reader Steven Kopits writes in response to Are you better off than you were four years ago?:
X-Files, 2024 Edition
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
Math Is Hard!
Steven Kopits writes: On the other hand, interest payments have risen from 9.5% of GDP in 2020 to 13.6% of GDP in 2023. That is a whopping 4% of GDP in just increased interest payments. Further, as the incumbent debt is rolling off and has to be refinanced, interest payments will continue to rise, and […]
Some Cost Implications of Elevated Frequency of Extreme Events Associated with Global Climate Change
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits snarks that I’m worrying about having to wear shorts in Madison on Sunday, when it hit 70 degrees. Just to clarify, global climate change has real implications.
70 degrees F in Madison: “The Horror”
That’s climatologist/macroeconomist/epidemiologist Steven Kopits remarking on 70 degrees F high in Madison today. For context, some historical data from here:
Not “Exogenous versus Endogenous Business Cycles: How the Pandemic differed from an Ordinary Recession.”
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
The Year in Review, 2023: Deep State @ BLS, Russia’s Expanded Invasion No Big Deal (to the World Economy), and Wisconsin’s Senator Theoden
Slightly behind schedule, my year reviewed. Last year’s recap was entitled “Year in Review, 2022: Vast Data Conspiracy by BEA, “Drill, baby, drill!”, and the Ills of Diversity” This year, with rational policymaking returning, it’s time to keep on trying to erase stupidity.