That is Stephen Moore, on June 27, 2022. He further notes: “Moore pointed to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the “first six months of the year have been negative for growth.” Here are the data around that time.
Data released yesterday (CFS, SPGMI), through August.
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
Back at the beginning of this year, Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit: You, Menzie, held the Est Survey was more likely right. You wrote: So: (1) I put more weight on the establishment series, and (2) the gap between the two series is more likely due to increasing, and […]
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker:
That’s a comment by Steven Kopits.