Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
Back at the beginning of this year, Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit: You, Menzie, held the Est Survey was more likely right. You wrote: So: (1) I put more weight on the establishment series, and (2) the gap between the two series is more likely due to increasing, and […]
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker:
That’s a comment by Steven Kopits.
The evidence is overwhelming. As Steven Kopits comments: Yes, Powell and Yellen [are at fault for causing the inflation and resulting banking crisis]. Nothing new there. And, yes, the US can export inflation. If a US fiscal impulse goes into a full employment (or upwardly constrained employment) economy, then the difference will show up in […]
(1) do not make absolutist statements without knowing the nature of the data; (2) Do not abuse statistical terminology; (3) do not assert a conspiracy is in place just because the data do not conform to your preferred narrative.
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus […]