Quantity Theory and (Broad) Money Demand in Normal and Abnormal Times
Data released yesterday (CFS, SPGMI), through August.
Search Results for: steven kopits
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Some Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
The Recession of 2022H1 – Rec Vehicles, but No Spam
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
The 2022H1 Recession Call in Hindsight, the 2023H2 Call in Context
Back at the beginning of this year, Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit:
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Remembering the 2022H1 Labor Market Collapse Hypothesis
Mr. Steven Kopits asserted that the Philadelphia Fed’s early preliminary benchmark supported a recession in 2022H1, to wit: You, Menzie, held the Est Survey was more likely right. You wrote: So: (1) I put more weight on the establishment series, and (2) the gap between the two series is more likely due to increasing, and […]
A Stryker Velocity Model
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker:
“…we had a debate about whether M2 was mean reverting or not. The data says it is.”
That’s a comment by Steven Kopits.
Swedish Inflation: Blame It on Biden!
The evidence is overwhelming. As Steven Kopits comments: Yes, Powell and Yellen [are at fault for causing the inflation and resulting banking crisis]. Nothing new there. And, yes, the US can export inflation. If a US fiscal impulse goes into a full employment (or upwardly constrained employment) economy, then the difference will show up in […]