I expect a downward revision tomorrow for today’s value, but tomorrow’s value?
Reader Bruce Hall writes: Just noticed that steel prices have generally fallen over the past 6 months. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/steel?countrycode=xx . … Mr. Hall seemingly links to a stock price index, rather than the price of steel. No matter; here are two relevant series, as compiled by the St. Louis Fed.
Some observers claimed the fungibility of soybeans would mean little impact on US soybean prices. Unless the Bloomberg terminals are being hacked by the Russians…
That’s part headline from CNBC. President Donald Trump has requested the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent.
From Brown, Sheldon,AEDE Agricultural Report 2018-001, May 2018: Through calculations made based on a representative west central Ohio farm, and assuming an average degree of Chinese substitution between U.S. and Brazilian soybean import, it is estimated that average net income per year (2018-2024) would drop from $63,577 to $26,107 under the proposed tariff, which translates […]
I’ve seen the argument that China’s tariffs on soybeans will have no effect because the soybeans will be relabeled so that US soybeans go to Europe, and soybeans that previously went to Europe go to China, evading Chinese tariffs on US soybeans. John Cochrane makes this point. This seems to have surface appeal in a […]
Reader Bruce Hall, opining on the impact of mooted Chinese tariffs on US hog and soybean exports. As with pork, it looks as if the cost of food is going down for Americans as the Chinese bury their citizens in food price increases.
From The Hill: President Trump’s incoming national security adviser John Bolton said Sunday he hopes impending economic tariffs against China could be “a little shock therapy” for the country.
Bruce Bartlett reminds us of the George W. Bush: Screwup-in-Chief, 2001-2008. Short version: Iraq, WMD, unfunded Medicare Part D, Sarbanes-Oxley, Katrina, Harriet Miers, no vetos until second term, tax rebates+credits and nonpermanent tax cuts, steel tariffs, ag subsidies, keeping Cheney, compassionate conservativism, signing McCain-Feingold after threatening to veto, neutering SecTreas, and GSEs.
The CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook is a must read. In addition to the widening budget deficit (no supply side miracle here), and the downward revision in projected 2018 growth, there is this commentary in the section blandly titled “Some Uncertainties in the Economic Outlook” (page 14 onward): A sizable uncertainty in the U.S. trade […]