“So China is now paying us billions of dollars in tariffs”

That’s economist Trump in 2018, as cited in Coy (2018). Now, from USITC “Economic Impact of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs on U.S. Industries” (page 22), a conflicting assessment. The Commission’s econometric model estimates that tariffs under  sections 232 and 301 resulted in a nearly one-to-one increase in prices  of U.S. imports following the tariffs. […]

On Tariffs, and Large Country Assumptions

Suppose the US puts a 10% tariff on imports from a foreign country. Will import prices (inclusive of tariffs) rise 10%? It depends on the elasticity of supply of said imports. If the elasticity of supply is less than perfect, then import prices will rise less than 10%. To see this, consider the most basic […]

Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.

Do Tariffs Matter? Soybean Edition

A year ago, there was some debate (e.g., S. Kopits) whether tariffs on US soybeans would have any impact on US soybean exports — that is since soybeans were highly substitutable, US soybean exports would be redistributed w/o an impact on prices. From Deutsche Bank today:

“Across-the-Board Tariffs on China with Retaliation and Federal Spending Create Over 1 Million Jobs in Five Years”

The Coalition for a Prosperous America publishes another study imbued with “secret sauce” structure…From the “working paper” (more akin to a press release): Specifically, we introduce the effects of Chinese retaliation with tariffs on US exports to China; we add the effects of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) programs to support farmers and food […]