Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency
The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:
Search Results for: tariffs
50% Tariffs on the EU? Or, Wegovy for me, but not for thee?
Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.
Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Guest Contribution: “Steeling losses: sectoral strains from the return of tariffs on steel and aluminium”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”
New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]
And CBO’s January projection:
Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed
Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.
Douglas Irwin in WSJ “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense”
From WSJ today:
EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs
Up, up and away.
Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs
No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.