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Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency

The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:

This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

50% Tariffs on the EU? Or, Wegovy for me, but not for thee?

Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.

This entry was posted on May 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.

This entry was posted on April 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Steeling losses: sectoral strains from the return of tariffs on steel and aluminium”

Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. 

This entry was posted on March 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”

New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.

This entry was posted on March 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]

And CBO’s January  projection:

This entry was posted on February 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing Productivity When Tariffs Last Bloomed

Going to be some outrageously crazy arguments about the merits of tariffs coming. Just to remind people, higher measured productivity is not one of the plausible outcomes.

This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Douglas Irwin in WSJ “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense”

From WSJ today:

This entry was posted on February 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

EPU after Reciprocal Tariffs Announced, Before New Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

Up, up and away.

This entry was posted on February 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs

No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.

This entry was posted on February 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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