I’m just finishing writing a new research paper whose goal is to come up with a better measure and understanding of the lagged effect of monetary policy on the economy. One of my claims is that the public’s expectations of what the Fed is going to do next play a key role in that process. In this, the first of several posts based on that paper, I describe some of the properties I’ve found for fed funds futures prices as predictors of subsequent Fed policy changes.
Monthly Archives: October 2006
“Trends in Iraq” – Updated
This figure updates the data presented in an earlier post on Iraq trends, replacing the projection with actual figures for October.
Skepticism about the Business Fixed Investment Handoff
One view of how GDP growth can be sustained in the wake of negative residential investment growth is to assert that business fixed investment picks up the slack. If this happens, then the adjustment of construction employment need not be too abrupt.
Interpreting median house prices
“Home Prices Plunge by Most in 35 Years”,
declare the headlines. But those numbers don’t mean what you might think.
Third quarter growth slows to a crawl
As expected, GDP growth became even weaker in 2006:Q3.
More evidence that housing may be stabilizing
Data on new home sales and inventories released today from the Census Bureau continue to support the view that the market downturn may have reached its bottom.
The U.S. Macroeconomy: Facing the Future with (at least) One Hand Tied
[This is an English version of an article that appeared the Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on the 24th September.]
Today, the U.S. economy stands poised between persistent inflation and slowdown. Even as many measures in the production side of the economy signal continued strength in the economy, forward looking indicators such as housing prices, residential investment, and the yield curve point to substantially weaker growth going forward.
Is peak oil irrelevant?
Does the market price of oil reflect a recognition that the resource is fundamentally limited?
The Fiscal Exposure of the Nation
In present value terms, where were we in 2000? Where are we now?
Monday, December 18, 2006
At the rate of casualties incurred in October-to-date, cumulative U.S. fatalities in the Iraqi theater of operations will exceed 3000 on this date.