With lagging economic growth, and the massive tax cuts, revenues are falling below projection. From The Topeka Capital Journal today:
Tax collections by Kansas state government in September fell a sobering $21 million below projections to mark the fourth time in the past six months revenue failed to match targets, officials said Tuesday.
The state’s individual income tax receipts dropped $42.4 million beneath the estimate set earlier this year by a team of state economists and officials in Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration. Oil and gas tax revenue also failed to keep pace with the tax blueprint.
The revenue crater would have been twice as deep had it not been for a $21.5 million, or 33 percent, surge in corporate income tax receipts. It is unclear why that number moved so much to the positive side.
… the September report released by the Department of Revenue provided evidence the state could burn more rapidly through cash reserves and force the 2015 Legislature to take a scythe to the budget in January. The $21 million shortfall in September was 3.9 percent less than projected.
If the economy doesn’t grow rapidly and lawmakers don’t amend the budget, the Legislature’s nonpartisan research staff predicted the state would be confronted by a $238 million budget shortfall in July 2016. The hole would be larger if the state didn’t meet current tax revenue projections.
According to the article, the Brownback reelection campaign declined to comment on this report.
This account confirms the idea that reductions in tax rates reduce tax revenue, at least for the tax rates originally prevailing in Kansas. Furthermore, cuts in government spending appear to reduce economic activity. See this critique of the New Classical Kansas conjecture.