How Well Have Predictions of Trade War Victory Done? Soybean Edition

Here is a graph of the front-month futures (July 2019, expires 12th) for soybeans:

Source: ino.com, accessed 6/26/2019 10AM Pacific.

The price as of 10AM Pacific was below $9.00. Note that on the eve of Mr. Trump’s Section 301 salvo against China, the price was about $10.50.

For commodities in general, the futures price incorporates both market expectations and cost of carry. However, as documented in Chinn-Coibion (2014), soybean futures are an unbiased predictor of future soybean prices, and in out-of-sample ex post historical simulations, beat a random walk and simple ARIMA(1,1,1). Hence, it seems appropriate to take futures contract prices as a proxy for expectations. In particular, my best guess of the price of soybeans on July 12, 2019 as of July 12, 2018 was about $9.00 $8.8575, the futures contract price on that date.

Nobody denies that other factors, including weather, affects soybean futures prices. However, most market commentary attributes the discrete drop in prices post-Section 301 announcement to Trump’s trade actions and perceived reactions (that approach, after all, is the basis for the multitude of event studies). However, dogmatic observers believed otherwise constantly harping on weather and currency values; reader CoRev wrote on July 9th:

…no one has denied the impact of tariffs on FUTURES prices. Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.

Now, we don’t know the counterfactual (although we do know that soybean prices have not recovered to that the previous harvest season’s levels, despite CoRev’s prediction). As I noted in this post, if one used a statistically based counterfactual (i.e., an ex post historical simulation) using the dollar as an exogenous variable to control of the currency, one finds that the current soybean price is much below what would be expected (for April, about 10% below predicted, in log terms).

So, my prediction informed by my research, as opposed to my “gut”: for July 12, 2019, I expect the spot price (approximated by expiring futures contract price) to be $9.00 $8.8575.

Postscript: For those inclined to dismiss the “research” as so much ivory tower babble, the Chinn-Coibion paper is derived from a CEA memo written to evaluate the use of futures for forecasting; I can’t post the memo, but here’s a closely related working paper from 2001).

Update, 6/27, 4:40pm Pacific: CoRev has asked for the specific 7/12/2018 contract price for the July 2019 future contract. Spurred by this request, I subscribed to ino.com. (CoRev could’a done this him/herself, since I kept on referring to ino.com, but it is what it is…) The closing price is 885.75. Date is here (xls). (This figure differs slightly — 1.6% — from my eyeball estimate of 900. I will revise text accordingly).

87 thoughts on “How Well Have Predictions of Trade War Victory Done? Soybean Edition

  1. pgl

    A woman watched her husband and daughter drown at the Mexican border, report says

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/26/politics/mexico-father-daughter-dead-rio-grande-wednesday/index.html

    Trump is blaming their death on the Democrats and their asylum policy? That is a lie. This family crossed into the U.S. legally and applied for asylum. CBP denied their right to that under Trump’s metering policy and sent them back to Mexico. This death is on Trump’s hands and he knows it. But the liar that he is – he blames the Democrats?

    1. The Rage

      Nothing personally PGL, but this stuff happens all the time. I have way more gruesome stories I can share on this, from the last 40 years since the surge in illegal crossing borders began(at the dawn of the reserve currency).

      Your not telling what why the Trump Administration really split the children from their parents, which is the real stinker in this. Many Trump supporting paleo conservatives may not like it either. I am thinking more and more, Progressives need to be replaced with Social Nationalism. You guys aren’t getting it done and playing dialectical fantasies isn’t helping.

      1. Menzie Chinn Post author

        The Rage: So you must be happy with the outcome. Two less “animals” (as Mr. Trump puts it) in the US. Mission accomplished. You should toast to many more such successes.

  2. pgl

    “For those inclined to dismiss the “research” as so much ivory tower babble, the Chinn-Coibion paper is derived from a CEA memo written to evaluate the use of futures for forecasting; I can’t post the memo, but here’s a closely related working paper from 2001).”

    I don’t think this link is working. Has a new CEA chair be selected to replace Hassett? Maybe this CEA can do some actual research on the soybean market and the role the trade war plays. Hopefully their paper will be the first real economics CoRev will ever read.

  3. Moses Herzog

    Off-topic
    I thought this was something gender studies expert and Native American rights expert Barkley Junior might take an interest in. Especially since he apparently thinks “it’s no big deal” when white people lie about their Native American ancestry in order to get an edge in attaining professorship jobs at Ivy League type institutions. Because God knows this type scam has never been perpetuated on Native Americans before. It’s advisory to all those not mesmerized by their own family’s connections to the loser confederate army to watch this video and read the stories. It could be highly educational. I present the video also because videos are easier to comprehend for those who can’t tell the difference between a research paper that plainly states something is uniformly distributed and say something that they misinterpret and misidentify as a “skewed” distribution:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC4JUWLsZg8

    I want to put on the record I tried to respond to a couple of Barkley Junior’s comments yesterday in Professor Hamilton’s post thread. Those comments did not get past the filter. The comments could have been considered belligerent or perhaps “antagonistic” and therefor Professor Hamilton chose not to post them. That is Professor Hamilton’s right, which I genuinely respect (his right) and his prerogative as co-host of the blog, and I am attempting to be an adult about it. My feeling is that they did not “cross the line”. Reasonable people can disagree.

    I’d also like to say I mean no disrespect going off topic, but I wanted to post this, because everyone knows that feeling when something important enters your head and you let it go for a later more appropriate time to mention it, only to have it lost in the abyss of your long-term memory. So I wanted to post this to again emphasize it’s not a joke for a blonde white woman with most likely less than 2% Native American DNA to claim Native American ancestry for a job. It’s not something to “slough off” as nothing. These things have REAL consequences and there’s real tangible reasons people might be “preoccupied” with the topic.

  4. pgl

    Trump, Without Offering Evidence, Accuses Mueller of Crime

    https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-politics/trump-without-offering-evidence-accuses-mueller-crime

    “Mueller terminated them illegally. He terminated all of the emails. … Robert Mueller terminated their text messages together. He terminated them. They’re gone. And that’s illegal. That’s a crime,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network, referring to two former Federal Bureau of Investigation employees who exchanged disparaging messages about the president.

    Terminated? I guess he is accusing Mueller of a cover-up by allegedly deleting these emails. Of course they were not deleted and in fact a matter of public record. I would say Trump is lying but this rant is so bizarre that I worry about Trump’s mental health!

  5. CoRev

    Menzie, it appears you forgot to add your 2019 prediction: “In particular, my best guess of the price of soybeans on July 12, 2019 as of July 12, 2018 was ”

    Also have you forgotten the date of your predictions? You’ve twice now dated it as July 12, 2018.

      1. CoRev

        This is the predictions that I saved and referenced several times:
        “Conclusion

        Soybean futures are remarkably good predictors of future spot prices of soybeans. Hence, my best guess of soybean prices one year from today is 872.

        Other futures – particularly for metals and precious metals – do not share those attributes. Nor are, as Robert Hodrick showed more than 30 years ago that for currencies, futures and forwards are not good or unbiased predictors of future spot rates.

        Hence, one cannot make generalizations about futures, or any predictive method. Rather, one needs to do extensive, systematic and appropriate econometric work.

        This entry was posted on July 15, 2018 by Menzie Chinn. “

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          CoRev: Well, that must be because on 7/15, the July 2015 futures was recording that price. My eyeballing of the price on 7/12 (one year ahead of the July futures maturing) is $9.00.

          1. CoRev

            Menzie, not “…7/15, the July 2015 futures..” but “… July 15, 2018 by Menzie Chinn. ”

            It’s the prediction for which I challenged you and am tracking. You’ve had a history of writing articles at low price points. The price on 7/13, the last business day, was $8.14. From here: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price Of $8.19 from here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data

            Where are you getting your $9.00 price?

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: That price you are quoting is a “front month” future as proxy for spot price. I’m quote the July 2019 future contracts price…how many times do I have to tell you that?

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Geez. OK, I subscribed to ino.com so I could download the data. The contract price for the July 2019 future contract indicates closing price on 7/12/2018 of 885.75. (This figure differs from my eyeball estimate of 900. I will revise text accordingly). The excel file is here.

    1. pgl

      My Lord – you have no idea what even the word “prediction” means. You love to put forth comments proving the obvious – you have no idea what you are talking about.

  6. Barkley Rosser

    Indeed, and as noted by 2slugbaits, given all the bad weather in the US soybean belt, if anything that all-important weather effect CR has had so much expert stuff to say about would have had prices higher now. But, well, there it is, prices about where you forecast them, Menzie. Again, congratulations.

    1. CoRev

      Barkley, if weather were the only price influence, but its not. The tariffs are still affecting the prices. Because they are still in place, most traders have probably arbitraged away that initial loss, but when positive or negative tariff negotiation news is released prices make rapid changes as the news is impounded. Then almost as quickly return to the near plateau price established by the tariffs.

      Additionally, the ASF affected prices by lowering them, and now US weather in the upper Midwest has again raised them. Regardless, the weather impact won’t be felt in the soy prices until very near harvest time.

      Expect more up/down price fluctuations as always happens. Its a market based upon changing prices. I do thank Menzie for forcing me to learn something about it.

      1. pgl

        “The tariffs are still affecting the prices. Because they are still in place, most traders have probably arbitraged away that initial loss”.

        Yea – the BROKERS are not making persistent losses. DUH! But I thought THE CoRev was the champion of the farmers who are the one that continue to bear this loss. But then you babble incoherently so much – maybe I’m wrong about who the heck you are the lobbyist. OK – THE CoRev is the tool advocating for brokers. GOT IT!

    2. CoRev

      Barkley made this observation in another article about oil:
      ” In particular what has struck me for some time has been how frequently I see completely contradictory stories on a given day, one declaring that prices are going up (definitely!) while another declares exactly the opposite (definitely!). This has been happening several times a week for quite some time now.”

      I have tried to explain the same issue re: soybeans here. So let me recreate his observation:
      ” In particular what has struck me for some time has been how frequently I see completely contradictory stories in a very short period, days to weeks, one declaring that prices are going up (definitely!) while another declares exactly the opposite (definitely!). This has been happening several times a quarter for quite some time now, mostly based on news uncertainty”

      Some of that uncertainty is tariffs based, but we’ve also seen ASF and weather uncertainties introduced during the harvest year.

      Does anyone remember my earlier comments how other factors should also be considered instead of just tariffs?

      1. pgl

        “Does anyone remember my earlier comments how other factors should also be considered instead of just tariffs?”

        Alas we all remember your incessant gibberish. Other factors matter? STOP the presses. The problem we have with you is you have no clue what the impact of these other factors are. Like your claiming bad weather is one of those factors driving DOWN soybean prices.

        Repeat after me (for the thousandth time) – bad weather = inward shift of the supply curve = market prices increase.

        See economics is rather straight forward when one takes off the Trump blinders and avoids your usual pointless babbling.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        CoRev,

        Tariffs are not at all playing a role in the current turmoil in the oil markets. Again today there were contradictory stories, one forecasting a fall to $30 per barrel (maybe, from current roughly 60 for WTI), and another forecasting a surge due to OPEC actions and inventory drawdowns.

        But none of this has to do with tariffs and is basically irrelevant to this matter of the determination of oil prices, although weather can sometimes be a factor, if not usually as important as it is in agricultural markets.

  7. AS

    Professor Chinn,
    If one were a trader, should a trader have enough confidence in the model to use the $9.00 forecast as of July 2018 to motivate shorting when the soybean price reached about $9.50 in the January 2019 to April 2019 period and then buy when the contract fell to about $8.00 after April 2018?

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ AS
      This is not advice, just me “thinking out loud” and hypothesizing.

      I had thought this same thought/question a few times, but due to my own lack of resources and never having traded options or commodities before didn’t really follow through on the thought. But it is a captivating question. One thing you have to think about is the SMALL possibility the tariffs will not be enacted long-term, delayed, or maybe an agreement could be made with Chairman Xi at the G-20. It’s an opportune and advantageous time for donald trump to have a false victory lap around the G-20 time (i.e an agreement with Xi). Hypothetically, you could just make SMALL bet based on the soybeans prices to protect on downside losses. Or you could do what I think is called a “binary trade” (although this has many different “definitions” of WHAT a “binary trade” is). But basically you could make a coinciding trade on another “vehicle”— commodity or equity, which would move in the opposite direction of soybeans if a trade agreement was reached. I would think most of the profit opportunity on a “short” is probably gone now. The best time to make this kind of trade (a short-sell) has passed by now. But if you “short” you need another trade which might stay relatively neutral otherwise, but would go in the opposite direction of your soybeans trade (I’m assuming what would be some kind of “long” trade against your soybeans “short”) if a trade agreement was reached, to act as a downside protector (in your “binary trade”) if a trade agreement was reached.

      It’s not always easy to think of a coinciding trade that stays “neutral” on a winning trade, but is a “gainer” in a scenario coinciding with a “losing” trade–if that sentence makes any logic to you. But they are out there if you are creative enough and hunt those type things down well. Hope something there is helpful to you.

  8. 2slugbaits

    Relying upon ocular analysis (always dangerous), it looks like there might be some nonlinear switching going on. Futures prices seem to react to positive price shocks at a sluggish pace, but negative price shocks result in a quick drop in price.

    1. CoRev

      2slugs, agreed! They appear to be oscillating around a tariff drive/created plateau. $9.00???? or near that.

      1. 2slugbaits

        CoRev I guess my comment was a bit too cryptic, although I’m sure Menzie understood it. Eyeball analysis suggests the responses of positive and negative shocks look to be asymmetric and this behavior might suggest what’s known in the econometrics literature as a two-regime threshold autoregression model. So negative shocks that fall below some threshold value result in a more persistent response than shocks that exceed the threshold. It’s plausible since linear models performed poorly.

      2. 2slugbaits

        CoRev If you search back in history I think you’ll find that my prediction was $8.95/bushel for an expiry of July 2019.

      3. pgl

        Wow – that kind of honesty is going to get you fired by the Trump White House. But thanks for FINALLY admitting what Menzie has been trying to get across to you for months.

  9. joseph

    Moses: “he says it’s no big deal when white people lie about their Native American ancestry in order to get an edge in attaining professorship jobs at Ivy League type institutions.”

    What evidence do you have that Elizabeth Warren used her Native American ancestry to get a job at Harvard? Have you seen her application? Have you talked to her interview committee? Did you just make that up? It seems there’s a lot of lying to go around.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I made the whole thing up actually.

      I have posted at least two forms on this blog where she made those claims. Do I have to post them up every time the topic comes up?? Let me use a crude example. If a woman comes skimpily dressed for an interview, and nonetheless isn’t hired, does it mean she wasn’t using her body to get the job?? The best excuse some of you morons can come up with is “we didn’t ask the people who hired her”. I suppose if the policeman doesn’t report the bribe he got to to overlook a ticket, that lady going 120mph on West I-94 wasn’t speeding ‘cuz the policeman didn’t give her a ticket?? And if the guy who owns a construction firm hires his son on as project supervisor says “No we didn’t hire him for reasons of nepotism, of the 500 applicants my son was the best guy.” Well, by your moronic barometer that solves everything there, doesn’t it?? How about the policeman who tells us he didn’t pull over the sexy blonde in the Ferrari F50 so he could talk to her, NO REALLY, it was because she had a tail light out. Or maybe a better example yet, the policeman didn’t pull over the black guy in the Ferrari F50 driving in a white neighborhood because he was black—well the policeman knows why he pulled the black guy over—so by your dipsh*t logic “All we had to do was ask”

      Again, I feel really extremely sorry for you people who think a woman who claims to be Native American with less than 2% of the DNA isn’t using it as a crutch or a way to get an edge in the hiring process. If someone had less than 2% African American ancestry and pulled the same exact stunt claiming they were “African American” on a job application (or on their state license to practice law, as the case may be) you’d all be screaming bloody murder. But somehow you’re all “down” with it when it’s perpetrated on Native Americans. The irony of people on the left politically defending this woman would be hilarious if it wasn’t so deranged and demented.
      https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/elizabeth-warren-apologizes-for-calling-herself-native-american/2019/02/05/1627df76-2962-11e9-984d-9b8fba003e81_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.fa09d1e5b05b

      Now I suggest you read that link, and see if your eyes can spot a BIIIIIIIIG “yellow box” there (I’m doing the best I can to help you slow ones out there that can’t read too well). Now some of you may be professors from Virginia who think yourself too advanced to read things front to back, in which case, said Virginia based Uni profs “get a pass” because you’re way too advanced to read things start to finish.

    2. Moses Herzog

      I copy pasted this paragraph as it’s farther down than the big “yellow box” and might be a real strain for some of you. Neck muscles or something. I’d even hold your hand to get to that part of the story, so far down and all, honest I would, but it’s hard to do that by internet means:
      Warren, asked in a brief interview Tuesday if she’d intended the apology to include labeling herself as Native American when at the University of Pennsylvania and at Harvard University, replied “yes.” She gave the same response when asked if it included labeling herself as a minority in the Association of American Law Schools directory.

      If you guys want, you can start a small cult where you worship people who make claims to any ethnic minority with less than 2% of the related DNA. I’ll donate about 10 dunce caps for your cult. You mind if they’re red with some unrelated text on them??

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Moses,

        So, are you back on your anti-Elizabeth Warren vendetta because it looks like she is about to knock your boy Bernie out of contention for being the Dem presidential nominee? Pathetic.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Some people brag about their family’s connections to the loser confederate army, thinking in their squirrelly mind and detached view of society that this shows some kind of “status” or “class”. Others spend their time doing things in the here and now at a potential high personal cost:
          https://images.app.goo.gl/XVnYWk3ufKyDbPTP7

          Look at those lines and see if you can tell which side of those lines your feet reside.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            You are becoming senile. When Bernie was doing that I was participating in the civil rights movement sufficiently seriously to get an FBI file for it. You are barking up a joke tree on this matter.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Any pictures of you there at the civil rights protests of that era?? Any police arrests of you at a civil rights protest of that time era??

            It’s a simple question: YES or NO??

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Moses Herzog: Seriously, I have to say that Barkley Rosser comes in under his own name, rather than a pseudonym. I think anybody who does that should be granted some leeway from hectoring about his/her record.

          4. Moses Herzog

            @ Menzie
            That’s a fair point. And in the name of fairness, I will wave the white flag here. But, I have caught the man in upwards of 5 false statements (if we include prior threads), intentional or otherwise. When he gets blow-hard-y (which is nearly all the time) it’s very tempting to poke there. And I had some follow-ups there that I think would have been interesting related to the YEAR his supposed FBI file was opened, as he implies it was related to 1960s civil rights activity, I think the year his supposed FBI file was opened would answer that question.

            But your point is valid and taken. I have been semi-open about myself here—and stating things not very self-flattering on occasion. But, yes, that is easy to do in “anonymity” behind a keyboard. I will surrender/give that point.

          5. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            No, there are no photos of me being arrested in civil rights rallies that I am aware of. So what?

            The issue at hand is why are you going off the deep end again over Elizabeth Warren’s bungled handling of the question of her Native American ancestry, a topic we have not heard you rant about for some time, but here you are again going at it ferociously? Since I know you are a big fan of Bernie, it occurs to me that it might be for the reason I asked, that she is threatening his position in the race for the Dem nomination for prez. I do not see why such a question deserves a personal attack on me, Moses. Menzie is right. It is uncalled for and unjustified.

            Yes, I have made misstatements here. Unlike others, I readily accept and confess that I have when it is pointed out, and have done so readily when you have been the one pointing them out. These are mistakes, generally due to sloppiness and imperfect memory, not due to deliberate fabrications like we see some people here engage in. I do not consciously lie here, ever, despite repeated accusations from at least one who does appear to engage in repeated deliberate fabrications and shamelessly so. I do not claim any perfection and never have.

            BTW, I have plenty of respect for Bernie, but i think that he will not get the Dem prez nomination, for better or worse, with it now looking more like it will be Kamala Harris, whom i have long preferred over both Bernie and Warren. I happen to know Harris’s dad, very well retired Stanford econ prof, Donald J. Harris. She has his precision and his brains. She looks to be the one who can actually take Donald Trump down and out, more so than any of the other Dem nominees, certainly including Joe Biden.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          For the record in fact my file was started the same year of the photo of Bernie being arrested, 1963. I never claimed I was a bigger activist than he was, simply noting that claiming my relationship with the Civil Rights movement can be characterized by the fact that I have slave-owning Confederate officer ancestors is a bit misleading.

          As it is, I have lots of respect for Bernie. I am good friends with several of his top advisers and have had his #1 economics adviser, MMT advocate Stephanie Kelton, along with the author of his employment plan, Pavlina Tcherneva, onto the JMU campus to give talks (although I invite people of a wide variety of views in to talk, even when I do not necessarily agree with what they have to say). I happen to agree with some of what Bernie advocates, but not all of it, which can also be said of my attitude to the views of Warren and Harris (and Biden) as well.

          For better or worse I think Bernie has seen his peak of support, his loyal 15% or so of Dems, who will probably stick with him to the convention.. But it now looks like a race between Biden, Harris, and Warren for the nomination, with people like Buttigieg and Booker running for the VP nod.

          Interestingly, the Trump people have now figured out what a threat Harris is and are seriously going after her. Donald Trump, Jr. has tried to do to her what you keep trying to do to Warren, sending out a tweet (apparently since retracted, ooops) claiming she is “not black enough” to speak about the problems of African Americans. I sort of remember people trying to pull that one on Obama.

          BTW, it seems that Menzie thinks “Moses Herzog” is not your real name. Is it? I have read most of Saul Bellow’s novels so fully aware of the character named that in his work. So the question I guess boils down to who it is or was who is/was the big fan of that character, you or your parents? I certainly have known several people named for characters out of literature.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Rosser
            I tell you what, you tell me the exact year your FBI file was opened, and I’ll tell you if Moses Herzog is my real name. I’m giving you a hell of a bargain there.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            I already said it, same year the photo was taken of Bernie getting arrested, 1963. Are you getting as careless and sloppy about reading these comments as I am?

          3. Moses Herzog

            Ok, I’m not sure how much I believe that. But against my gut instinct, I’m going to assume you’re telling the truth. The name Moses Herzog is a pseudonym (assuming you’re asking seriously). My real name is much more rather boring, and the only person on this blog I would share that with is Menzie, after he was sworn to secrecy. I don’t think I have told him that as of yet. If Menzie directly asked me, I would tell him, but only AFTER he gave me his word he wouldn’t share it with others. So, there you have as far as that rabbit hole goes.

            I’m a bit of a casual “Judeo-phile”. That is, I am fascinated by and have a very high regard for Jewish culture, even though I am what they would probably refer to as a “narish goy”. Whether you regard jews as “God’s chosen people” or whatever, I believe there is something special about them (special in a positive way). Saul Bellow is about as “Jew’s Jew” writer as you can get, and Moses Herzog is as about as “Jew’s Jew” character as you can get. So I chose this pseudonym largely because of the above—and that I treasure my privacy.

          4. Barkley Rosser

            OK, Moses, fair enough. I do not insist on knowing your actual personal name, although unless somebody has a job or is close to somebody who has a job that might be negatively impacted by their comments in cyberspace, I really do not see what the secrecy is all about. But, so be it. As it was, since I have known people who really have names of fictional characters, I have most of the time taken yours as for real, while occasionally thinking maybe it wa,s not.

            I shall fill in a bit more on your question. So, indeed my parents grew up in the Deep South with all that entailed, and became somewhat more liberal when they moved north and my old man got into academia, in fact being mostly pro-civil rights, but still largely conservative, sort of Eisenhower Republicans, more or less. I would end up going much further and having disagreements with my old man in particular that were so great they actually ended up in the newspapers in Madison, Wisconsin.

            So indeed while in high school in 1963 I joined the local chapter in Mad City of CORE, and was involved in demonstrations outside of the local Sears warehouse that was reportedly engaging in racial discrimination in employment. However, I think the reason I ended up with an FBI file was that the group had some very radical white members who would later be leaders of the anti-war movement on campus, and who were viewed as either leaning to or actually being Communists by the FBI. As it was, when I was in econ grad school later at UW-Madison (some dept history for Menzie here he may not know), I overlapped with Michael Meeropol who got a PhD in econ history. He is the younger son of Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, and the FBI was all over his tail.

            Again, for what it is worth, I do not think you consciously tell untruths, although you do say plenty of things that are inaccurate. But you believe them. And I also do not consciously tell untruths, although I make inaccurate statements due to sloppiness and forgetfulness, which I do my best to quickly correct when they are pointed out. Neither of these can be said about our co-commenter
            here, CoRev.

    3. The Rage

      Dude, “White People”, especially Germanic “white people” are part Native American. Europe as it become constituted in 900 at the end of the dark ages us basically of 3 sources:
      1.Albino Indians: Led a revolt after years of bigotry against them, likely around 18000-20000 BCE. This is where the story of “Satan” the rebel first forms in mythology and expands.
      a.They begin to move north and east. We see the long impacts of in east Asia to this day
      b.They run into Native Americans who didn’t cross the BS
      c.These natives and the albinos eventually cross breed in alliances. Native Americans begin using swastika. Most of modern Germanic people are formulated by this point. The L gene is the key here, the Indian Albinos don’t have it, yet the Natives do.
      d.Human migration from Anatolia starts around 10000 BC. These people are more related to modern Turks and had light olive skin. Picts, Basque among others were part of this grouping. They were led by Goddess religions. Likewise, in many areas, they have inbred into the the local DNA pool and are “white”.

      The problem with modern “white’ people is the servants to the banking elite and its aristocracy shareholders. When capitalism came, it wasn’t some big revolution, it was the Monarchy going behind curtain and controlling via money rather than politics. Then the Bankers helped the Aristocrats create “nation states” as economic units. That means being really free, means destroying Capitalism. A paradox of a house slave. Immigration flows into the US are likewise caused by capitalism. Destroy it and they stop. Its really that simple.

      Once again, progressives have failed. Early progressives from the early 20th century would be ashamed. Time for Social Nationalism to replace you and start taking bodies of the “conservatives” until they can’t fight anymore.

      1. Moses Herzog

        You didn’t take Barkley Junior’s class on Native American Studies by any chance, did you?? Asking for a friend.

  10. The Rage

    Looks like the late drying is going to create a boom in soybeans this harvest. We may crash down to below 8 by the fall.

  11. joseph

    Moses, you made a specific accusation that Warren lied about her Native American ancestry in order to get a a job at Harvard.

    You provided zero evidence that she used this to get a job at Harvard. You don’t even know if Harvard knew about about her ancestry claim when they hired her. You also provided zero evidence she lied. She apologized for her misunderstanding about Native American affairs. She does not say that she lied.

    For all we know, what she said about her ancestry was true, but Native American rules are unique among all American minorities in that membership depends on certain legal definitions and does not depend only on ancestry.

    1. Moses Herzog

      The above comment by “joseph” is a good example of what I refer to as “a Barkley”. This is the point where it’s futile to continue the thread. While in some ways I applaud the efforts, at some point the limited time we are given in life make this effort on the CoRev’s of the world……. uuuuuuhh an effort of “diminished expectations” and uuuuuuuuhh “decreasing returns to scale”. Diminishing marginal returns…….. whatever, “We report, you decide”.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Uh oh, joseph, Moses has said that you “did a Barkley.” If you keep this up he will accuse you of being a fan of the awful Quora. You are in serious deep doo doo now. Your immortal soul is probably in danger.

  12. pgl

    Here is why CoRev should be forever ignored:

    “CoRev
    June 27, 2019 at 10:24 am
    Menzie, not “…7/15, the July 2015 futures..” but “… July 15, 2018 by Menzie Chinn. ”

    It’s the prediction for which I challenged you and am tracking. You’ve had a history of writing articles at low price points.”

    I asked what was the point of his latest. He ignored the question but then he revealed his intention. He is accusing our host of being dishonest. Seriously?

    Note something we have pointed out to CoRev many times. Our host are noting future prices. Check both of his links. Spot prices. As I have said many times – if he does not know the difference, he should just stop commenting. After all – his mom have endured enough of this embarrassing the entire family.

    1. noneconomist

      He’s this blog’s battered Timex: he takes his lickin’—pretty much daily—and keeps right on tickin’, no matter how far off he may be.

    2. CoRev

      Pgl please, please learn the meaning of future and spot prices and how they converge. “Convergence
      Convergence is the movement of the price of a futures contract towards the spot price of the underlying cash commodity as the delivery date approaches. ”

      I’ll include the definition one more time. Not for you, but for those who think you are making a point.
      ” What is Spot Price

      The spot price is the current price (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currentprice.asp) in the marketplace at which a given asset—such as a security, commodity, or currency—can be bought or sold for immediate delivery. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/physicaldelivery.asp)

      A historical data set which listed FUTURES price data is showing the SPOT PRICE for that date. Repeatedly confusing futures and spot prices in a historical context is not reputation enhancing. For you that’s nothing new.

  13. pgl

    “You’ve had a history of writing articles at low price points. The price on 7/13, the last business day, was $8.14.” (followed by two links to spot prices) “Where are you getting your $9.00 price?”

    Let this sink in and admire the sheer stupidity of CoRev. He accuses Menzie of posting when “prices” are low even as Menzie’s charts of FUTURE prices show them hovering around the $9 price that CoRev cannot find. Really CoRev? Two questions: (1) is that $8.14 price you note higher than $9 (Trump wins, Trump wins); but more importantly (2) when are you going to figure out that spot prices and future prices are two different concepts?

  14. Not Trampis

    soy it again Sam.

    what you have never watched Casablanco. you are immediately deported

    1. Moses Herzog

      I think Sam was one of those dirty foreigners. If only Casablanca had put up a wall. Or at least the leader could shout loudly in macho tones he was going to build a wall, then not build a wall and put his name on a portion funded by the prior President. You know, we have to keep up appearances at least or the darkies will take us asunder

  15. sammy

    Joseph,

    If Elizabeth Warren wants to prove that her claim of Native American ancestry had nothing to do with her acceptance at Penn and Harvard and get this monkey/gorilla off her back, all she has to do is allow the release of her personnel files.

    Easy peasy. Yet she refuses to do that. Why?

    1. baffling

      and donald trump simply has to open up his personnel files to show that there is no pee tape in his closet. and yet he refuses to do so. why?

  16. joseph

    “Here is why CoRev should be forever ignored …”

    I’m still trying to digest his claim that CO2 can’t possibly cause long term climate change because photon interactions with CO2 molecules only last picoseconds.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Does that feel like “picoseconds” when you get inside your car in the summertime after it’s been baking in the sun 3+ hours in the afternoon?? Leave a small child or an elderly person in your car with the windows rolled up on a sunny day afternoon in mid-July and come back after 1 hour and see how that “picoseconds” thing works out for them. That’s the science experiment that’ll get you arrested for child endangerment or very possibly a worse result. In essence it’s the same damned process, only on a smaller scale. Functionally illiterate people like CoRev like to talk about “common sense” all the time, because it’s the only retort to make when you have no higher education. “Use your common sense” is the mating call of white trash. That’s what a person does when they got a D minus passing grade in their high school science class because their teacher finally got tired of looking at their sad face for the 3rd year in a row. CoRev probably doesn’t believe in inoculations either.

      It’s fascinating we have donald trump leading this nation at the same time our nation is having its first measles outbreak in decades. Why is that?? Could it be because after the last 4 decades that Republicans have defunded and destroyed public education while offering up “vouchers” as a way to hand out goodies to private companies, that public education of American citizens has now become a joke—-Republican legislators implementing a self-fullfilled prophesy of failure?? Gee, I wonder……

    2. CoRev

      Joseph, please show me where I made this claim: “I’m still trying to digest his claim that CO2 can’t possibly cause long term climate change because photon interactions with CO2 molecules only last picoseconds.” Digestion as does understanding a concept takes the correct components or knowledge to work. Heat IS NOT TRAPPED in the atmosphere was the concept I was tying to get across. It is at best delayed, and then for microseconds to milliseconds, while ~96% of the photons pass through the atmosphere with no delay due to interactions with GHGs (not just CO2).

      The misunderstanding and blind belief are scary.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ CoRev
        I’m presuming somewhere in these threads, unless they are discussing an older comment of yours. Trying to find it was kinda like following 4 large horses on a 4th of July parade with diarrhea.

        http://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/11/fourth-national-climate-assessment#comment-219198

        http://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/11/fourth-national-climate-assessment#comment-219426

        http://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/11/fourth-national-climate-assessment#comment-219465

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          You need to be careful here. CoRev is back to declaring himself not only a gentleman farmer who knows more about modeling soybean futures prices than Menzie who has cited publications on the matter, but also a great expert on climate beyond anybody here, as well as the recipient of almost countless awards and prizes for his role in the US space program, including a medallion that went to the moon and back, but which he merely keeps in a drawer because he has so many others.

        2. CoRev

          Mosoes, those cites actually repeat what I’ve been saying. The interactions times are short, not picoseconds short, but do not show “long term TRAPPING” of that energy causing LONG TERM climate change.

          Josephs claim was wrong or at best a misunderstanding of what I have said. Your cites are just examples of your own ignorance in not understanding the content.

          BTW, I feel for you in noting Barkley’s penchant for less than the truth.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Again, CoREv, I make mistakes but readily admit to them when they are pointed out. Unlike you, I do not consciously lie and make a game out of it. Or is it only when you are being “sarcastic:”that you lie?

            Again, you have not found a single inaccurate thing I have said about the US space program. However, you yourself have made some inaccurate claims that I have not bonked on you too hard about, instead preferring to ridicule your ludicrous claims of multiple awards for all the stuff you supposedly did, not a single shred of which you have actually spelled out. But it supposedly got you a medallion to the moon and back plus multiple “Apolllo 11 awards:” whatever it was you did. Wowie zowie.

            So, sure, go ahead, commiserate all you want with Moses, you shameless and worthless liar. Moses may be messed up, but at least he does not lie.

          2. CoRev

            Barkley, the issue was your STORY and HOW OFTEN IT CHANGED. It was not about the space program and you or your father’s understanding of it.

            Moses and I have shown the specific areas upon which you have lied So in your own words: ” you shameless and worthless liar.”

            Please clean up in here, because living in your mind is not pretty. We didn’t bring the dirt it was here from your lies Also, with both Moses and I in here it is getting crowded. 😉

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Sorry, CoRev, but I have not changed my story about what my late father said about the space program one iota. It is you the liar who has made false claims that I did. I point out that on another thread I challenged you to document one lie you made, that I had said that my father “saved the Mercury and Gemini programs.” You have failed to document that because indeed, I did not say it. You lied that I did, just one lie upon many others.

            Let me, since you are stupid enough to keep pushing this garbage, point out an inaccurate and just plain stupid remark you have made about the space program. Calling on all readers here to trust you on your “personal experience,” which has not been documented and regarding which not only I but Menzie and others have expressed strong skepticism about, you stated that from the beginning when the rockets took off the clocks were synchronized and after that they were checked to make sure they were keeping the same time. The first part is correct, they would be synchronized to show the same time, but you reveal your ignorance on the second part. Why would they be constantly checking to see if they were keeping the same time if there had not been a problem of them not keeping the same time? That was the problem. They would start out the same, but then gradually deviate by about 1/365. That fortunately got fixed before it caused any really serious problems, and it was my late father who was responsible for that matter getting fixed, which is the entirety of what I claimed (along with noting that indeed without that being fixed people going to the moon in Apollo would have gone into deep space, although you have very stupidly claimed that not fixing this problem, which you also have claimed never needed to be fixed, would not have destroyed the Apollo program). You have simply revealed once again that you have been lying about this and do not know what you are talking about regarding the space program, even if somehow you actually did get an award or two somehow in connection with it.

            I note that you do this with many others, including especially with Menzie. You distort what somebody wrote and make exaggerated claims of them messing up. When they challenge you on the accuracy or reasonableness of what you wrote, you make yet another small distortion, never giving up, with the upshot that somebody like me or Menzie and others end up having to respond to one escalating fabrication after another, with Menzie putting up more than one entire post to refute nonsense you have posted.

            As for your repeated false claims that I have somehow changed my story or otherwise misrepresented the facts of my late father’s role in the US space program, really, CoRev, it is time for you to just hang it up and shut up about this topic. You are going nowhere except in circles with it, unless you want to tell us about yet more awards you have supposedly received that we have not already been told about , by last count: medalllion that went to the moon and back, more than one “Apollo 11 award,” a Fed 100 efficiency award (not tied to the space program), multiple “coin challenges” and “plaques” (perhaps those were just the Apollo 11 awards), plus an all-encompassing and not spelled out “etc.” Do you not realize how completely absurd this all looks by now?

  17. joseph

    Sammy: “all she has to do is allow the release of her personnel files.”

    No can do. They are locked up in a secret vault with Obama’s long form birth certificate.

    You and your racist Dear Leader never change. Elizabeth Warren owes you literally nothing, nada, bupkis, go fish.

    1. pgl

      Sammy is just trying to see Warren’s sext messages. Yep – Sammy is a dirty old man hoping to get a date with an old lady Senator!

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ joseph
      That’s a fascinating example to give, when the man DID finally present his real birth certificate to the public, and did everything but personally blow a bugle horn in the process. ELIZABETH WARREN IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT—YES, SHE DOES “OWE” US, IF SHE WANTS THE DAMNED VOTE. PERIOD. FULL STOP

      The real point to make here is, no one other than someone as incredibly dumb as Sammy or you, thinks that on a university form somewhere it says “And therefore, largely or mostly because of her minority status, we have decided to hire her here at Harvard University”. These are only the type memos a dumb-A$$ like CoRev would put on the record. This is why it’s utterly asinine to say “We should ask the hiring committee”. You dumbsh*ts can’t figure out that opens them up to lawsuits—not to mention major public scrutiny and embarrassment.

      1. baffling

        do you think elizabeth warren’s academic body of work does not warrant a prestigious faculty position?

        1. Moses Herzog

          I think that either way, what she did was BOTH unethical and immoral, irrespective of whether her record warrants the faculty job. You can wager at the institutions Elizabeth Warren applied/worked at, there were others applying whose records also warranted being hired for the job (maybe some of them REAL ethnic minority people, can you imagine!?!?!?), [gasp] who did not make intentionally false claims (otherwise known as LIES) on their ethnicity.

          1. baffling

            do you believe she would not have been hired at harvard had she not been labeled as an ethnic minority?

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ baffling
            I believe that is a near impossible question to answer. Let’s say Harvard had 3 candidates they liked equally, her claim of being an racial minority could have tipped the scales. Universities weigh those things out even if in fact they don’t “at heart” care about them because they know statistics will be compiled on such things and it will be factored in to the university’s openness and friendliness to minority students.

            50/50 she would have gotten the job is my coward’s answer on whether Warren would have gotten the job without making the false claim to minority status.

            In fact I admire her academic work. I was a HUGE fan of hers when she was head of CFPB. But it was a LIE, and a LIE that I think she knew VERY WELL was false when she put it on the forms. But what upset me the most was that after she got busted she kept on “walking” the lie. She couldn’t even come clean on it—for how many months?? (years?) That’s a problem for me.

            Would I vote for her for President?? If she was the nominee that would be an easy choice. She’s not going to be the nominee. Harris is probably peeling off 4% of Warren’s votes per day. Harris is probably going to be in third place when the smoke clears, and Warren will be short on campaign funds before you can say “late apology”. Would I trust Senator Warren as President?? I think she would be above average on domestic affairs—and way below average on foreign affairs. She can have a great career and life growing old as a Senator. I suggest the sooner she gets the last idea in her head, the better for everyone—including herself and her family.

          3. baffling

            moses, i think you give yourself far too much credit for your ability to read the minds of faculty search committees. they obviously would have been aware of her gender. if she were black, they would have been aware. but search committees would have been unaware that she was native american. if its not on the cv, and cannot be observed as physically obvious, they would not have had any knowledge of her background. further, lets put this into the context of when the harvard hire occurred:1995. in the academic world at that time, there was no emphasis for ethnic diversity in the ranks, particularly in comparison to today’s climate. in fact, her being a female or a minority was probably held against her. she was also hired directly as a full professor into an endowed chair. this more than likely means she was directly recruited into the position and not hired against competition. there was not a choice of 3 to choose from, she was the only candidate and either they wanted her (which they did) or they did not want her. there was no edge needed in that type of process.
            its a shame that people are trying to twist this story into a situation where she was trying to game the system to get ahead. that simply was not the case. she was proud of her heritage and wiling to promote it (even though she was aware others would slight her because of that heritage). so her ethnic background does not rise to the level others may insist. this does not mean she cannot be proud of her heritage. i hope she continues to promote her native american background, and I hope that she passes on the same stories to her grandchildren so that they can be proud of their heritage as well. the whitewashing of our backgrounds is disappointing.

        2. sammy

          Actually, by most accounts, you are right, Elizabeth Warren was an outstanding professor. The question is if she would be an outstanding professor at Univ of Oklahoma or at Harvard. If she were an outstanding professor at U of OK and had not gamed the system, you would have never heard of her. At Harvard she became a Senator of Massachusetts and a presidential candidate.

          1. baffling

            she was an outstanding professor before she arrived at harvard. she did not need to use a quota system for that position. she was not hired because of a minority status, she was hired at harvard because she was already a successful professor. only those with an agenda against her believe that her ethnic background had any bearing on her employment at harvard.

  18. sammy

    Baffling,

    If your assertions are correct, that her claiming to be a disadvantaged Native American, was irrelevant to her employment at Penn and Harvard, then she should authorize the release of her personell files. Period. Full Stop. End of Story. She has not authorized such.

    She never claimed she was of Native heritage before Penn, she never withdrew any claims before she was a candidate at Harvard. She was alone getting into Harvard from a lowly state school. She never participated in any Native organizations. She erased any mention of Native heritage after getting tenure at Harvard. She is a blue eyed blonde. She could have looked I the mirror and have had questions as to what are the odds that a Native would have these characteristics . Not to mention that her hand picked geneticist said she was 1/512 to 1/024th native. What more evidence do you need that she is a fake Indian for academic purposes?

  19. baffling

    “If your assertions are correct, that her claiming to be a disadvantaged Native American, was irrelevant to her employment at Penn and Harvard, then she should authorize the release of her personell files. Period. Full Stop. End of Story. She has not authorized such.”
    my assertions are correct. exactly what do you expect to find in her personnel files? i don’t think you understand what is in a personnel file. this is simply another birth certificate type of argument, and it is silly.
    “She was alone getting into Harvard from a lowly state school.”
    lowly state school? she was a full professor (which means tenured) at texas-austin. one of the top public state schools in the nation. then a full professor at penn-one of the top private schools in the world. each school has indicated she was hired without reference to her ethnic background. i would argue if you want to say she used leverage to get a position, it would be as a female obtaining a faculty position-not as a native american. that said, there is absolutely NO doubt in my mind she obtained her positions due to her academic performance over the decades. her native american heritage had nothing to do with it. period.

    sammy, when you bring up these unfounded accusations (they sound like a sound bite i might her from hannity), it shows you actually know nothing about ms. warrens academic background and performance. further, you apparently have no understanding in how the faculty hiring process unfolds. in the private sector, you may get the type of hires you are insinuating. you think ivanka and jared have any qualifications to hold policy positions in the white house? this simply does not occur in an academic setting-the positions are simply too rare. so rather than cry wolf about a completely legitimate hire in ms warren, why not cry foul about the inappropriate nepotism hires by the current administration in the white house?

    “What more evidence do you need that she is a fake Indian for academic purposes?”
    my bet is that until the conservative propaganda machine unloaded on her, all of the academics that voted to hire or not hire ms warren had no knowledge of her native american heritage. your “evidence” is speculation and heresay from the echo chamber, not reality.

    my parents have told me i have irish blood in me. i have no proof of this, yet i will claim irish heritage-especially on st patty’s day. i was raised in the belief, provided by my parents, that i am part irish (among MANY others). i guess i should rescind this statement as well, because we have a family tree that goes back into the 1700’s and there are no irish immigrants on that direct line. my claim to irish is probably less than warrens claim to native american. but my family surname does carry on. you going to call me ( and the millions of others in the usa with a similar background) liars? perhaps throw my parents in jail for spreading such fallacies? idiot.

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