Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data show the divergence from the establishment survey measurment of total employment in the months before the peak.
Figure 1: Year-on-year growth rate in nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (red), from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (blue), both calculated as 12 month log differences. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.
NBER identified peak is 2020M02.
Menzie, are you forgetting the great Barkley Blowhard says May consumption was up a whopping 8%??
” ‘Possibility’ it might be as high as -20% for second quarter? It now looks like consumption is highly likely to be positive for the second quarter kills any chance of overall GDP growth for the second quarter being -20% or lower. Heck, I would be very surprised if it is lower than -10%.”
The above Barkley comment, going back a long long time ago, June 27th of 2020.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/06/gdp-nowcasts-june-26th#comment-237778
Does anyone remember how old Barron Trump was back when Barkley Junior made that comment?? Was this before or after his Mom renegotiated the prenup??
http://www.bea.gov , Moses. It is the US gov that says consumption grew 8.2% in May. Why are ranting on about this?
From Barkley Blowhard’s own keyboard:
“ ‘Possibility’ it might be as high as -20% for second quarter? It now looks like consumption is highly likely to be positive for the second quarter kills any chance of overall GDP growth for the second quarter being -20% or lower. Heck, I would be very surprised if it is lower than -10%.”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/06/gdp-nowcasts-june-26th#comment-237778
I encourage one and all to pay attention in late July when initial BEA numbers on 2nd Quarter GDP come out. Then you’ll find out why he’s been fleecing Virginia tuition payers for years now.
https://www.breezejmu.org/news/jmu-s-comprehensive-fee-one-of-highest-in-virginia/article_567197d6-ca0a-11e9-8a68-e39a2f15d005.html
I also suggest anyone attending his class that has to spend more than 30 seconds listening to him discuss economics request an immediate tuition refund.
Oh, and here we have you repeating this for a third time. See my comment on this on the next thread. In the meantime, you still owe me an apology, but instead of doing what you should you put multiple posts here admitting nothing and piling on the personal insults. Really pretty shameful, Moses, although not at all surprising from you.
I assume this number has to be pretty damned close to the WSJ survey number??
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2020/survq220
Of course, a person would have to have a pretty gargantuan ego to think they can get the number 12% better than the average typical professional forecaster. I have my moments, I’ll admit I have my moments where I may overrate my own wits. However, thankfully, I am not equipped with that porky sized EGO. You’d have to visit Harrisonburg VA to find that
WOW. So will he keep bequeathing us with his knowledge at his new home?? I have to assume “Yes”
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/07/03/1593786863000/July-4th–charted/
The chart is probably a prelude to how britain will also fare after the eu split.
I’m on the record for saying I think Brexit is overdone. I don’t think it’s going to hurt Britain that bad. I’m sure if the data is there after, what, 5 years?? Menzie will be happy to take me to task. Since the odds are slim on me making it by positive/constructive means, it may be my one and only way to get a name drop in one of Menzie’s posts, so it’s not all bad.
I was expecting a slowdown of some kind about now, without a pandemic. That is what the magic cloudy plastic ball was telling this SaniCan economist. The fact that we are in a pandemic means that there is no way to know whether the magic cloudy plastic ball was telling the truth or not.
Aaaaaahh. You’re too hard on yourself. You get the general idea of things and the correct direction. If you insist on using this nomenclature, I say you’re at least a good quality Kohler with the added feature of a bidet. Besides, if you’re a latrine throne then I have to start to ask where I am on the scale of knowledge and that’s psychologically discombobulating, and stuff, and makes me feel like I’m….. like I’m sitting on a “skewed” (not normally distributed) commode.
Do you enjoy toilet humor??
No I do not much like toilet humor.
Willie,
Moses showed quite some time ago and repeatedly since that he would not know a skewed distribution if it hit him in the face, much less hit him in his hidquarters.
I do not actually read some portion of what he writes.