Covid-19 Fatality Rates Rising Again

Not good news. Not that it was so great even before this.

Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected as of 9/16 vintage (green), as of 9/9 vintage (teal), fatalities as tabulated by The Covid Tracking Project/Atlantic (dark red). Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC  9/16/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData accessed 9/16/2020 and author’s calculations.

Note that excess fatalities as of 9/16 vintage far exceed the officially designated Covid-19 fatalities for most of the sample.

Further note that both of the CDC series – Covid-19 Fatalities and Excess Fatalities – drop off dramatically in recent weeks. If you didn’t read the notes attached to the CDC spreadsheet, you’d conclude that we’ve won! But inspection of the spreadsheet reveals notes that indicate that the most recent data is incomplete. To illustrate, I show the previous vintage’s estimated excess fatalities (teal, 9/9 vintage), indicating substantial additions to estimated fatalities occur in just a week. I show in this post  that about the four-five most recent weeks worth of data are going to be substantially revised.  I shade this period in green in the above graph.

Another hint that this is a substantial problem is provided by comparing the trajectory of the unofficial tally compiled by the Our World in Data, which indicates a much smaller decline.

That means it is possible that “excess fatalities” — our proxy measure for Covid-19 fatalities  — is still increasing (although officially designated Covid-19 fatalities are probably declining, as the Our World in Data series not subject to really large revisions). Finally, even officially designated fatalities are rising over the last week ending 9/12.

 

94 thoughts on “Covid-19 Fatality Rates Rising Again

  1. Moses Herzog

    Where I live, the cases have consistently been rising the last 3 weeks. 12 deaths today, and they claim that the hospitalization number has gone down 33 (beds). There are some pretty good graphs (if we don’t care much about accounting for excess deaths) in the following Tweet:
    https://twitter.com/pmonies/status/1306264607774986245

    Our state is now number 5 ranking (“5th to worst” you might say) in positivity rate in the nation. They say that the lack of a state-wide mandate to wear masks is increasing infections and deaths in nursing homes. Also most rural area grade schools are using “in person” style of instruction which is increasing the transmission rate.

    On a more nationwide outlook, there seems to be a surplus rise in deaths related to dementia, which in part is being caused by keeping dementia patients in isolation. I’m assuming this would be part or a segment of the excess death counts, if the excess deaths counts are being tabulated near accurately:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/16/coronavirus-dementia-alzheimers-deaths/?arc404=true

    This, similar to immigrant children suffering in cages or in off-the-grid hotels because of donald trump’s MAGA policies, doesn’t seem to be registering with people. We have suburban area “Karens” going down to protest with the local school district offices about masks, while older people with very little cognizance of the world around them are suffering alone, because “Karen” and other illiterates like her, refuse to make any efforts to get some kind of societal control over the transmission of the virus.
    https://kfor.com/news/local/parents-gather-to-protest-edmond-public-schools-blended-learning-plan/

    1. pgl

      You live in Oklahoma? I was shocked earlier this year when my very left wing Northern California wilderness loving daughter told me she was taking law at one of the state’s universities. Turns out she is specializing in the area of law that protects our native Americans aka Indians. Not sure if she is ever going to make any real money but trust me – anyone who tries to deny the rights to these tribes is going to get a tough fight.

      Stay safe.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ pgl
        The 3 major universities in the state are not that good, but there might be certain majors they are better regarded in, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if things related to Native American studies they do better in. So as far as that specific major is concerned it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad choice. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could not even compare to the “average” Big 10 school for example. For example Oklahoma State considers itself a “leader” in agricultural studies, but I don’t think they could compare to Iowa State, or even Missouri which at one time was a Big 10 school, but switched conferences for the football dollars.

        There’s a lot of white trash in Oklahoma. I have stated on this blog before, like anyone cares, that my family at one time probably could have fit most descriptors of “white trash”, outside of education and literacy level, my family probably checked nearly all the white trash checkboxes. So even though there’s an extremely high proportion of Native Americans compared to other states there’s a lot of ignorance on the topic. Which is why our state’s governor recently tried to change state law related to gambling, even though every lawyer on planet Earth, including the state AG was telling him he would fail. Which after he kept going on he lost every case and fell flat on his face.

        This is also why a woman running for U.S. President raised in Oklahoma with less than 3% Native American blood gets people like Barkley Junior to sing her praises after lying. Junior apparently thinks you can buy a rainbow colored feather at the 7-11 convenience store and claim Native American Heritage. Now some schools that want to hire whites while claiming to meet racial quota hiring laws may love these type of lies. But people who see through that lie as an attempt to manipulate the system to get hired over a black of equal education might not like that. Those things don’t “phase” Barkley Junior though, Junior is more worried about the statues of “white saviors” being torn down. Junior has to pick his battles you know.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          No now now, Moses, Kamala Harris got the VP nod over Elizabeth Warren. The latter does not always beat out “a black of equal education.”

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      What? Deaths due to dementia are up? Well, I guess that Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden, and I should all be grateful that we remain among the living so far.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Well, since Biden made such a poor choice for his VP, I’m sad to tell you I am sweating out at least ONE of those out right now. I’m wavering on the other two as far as my personal feelings regarding their mortal peril. Check with me next time I’ve just purchased a large bottle of wine at the grocers, my spirits are usually at their highest then.

  2. pgl

    Bruce Hall needs a new way to spin the data and Trump comes up with one:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-blue-states-covid-19-fatalities

    In his latest effort to politicize the COVID-19 pandemic as the country approaches nearly 200,000 fatalities from the infectious disease, President Trump on Wednesday singled out “blue states” for the country’s jarring COVID-19 death rate. During a briefing at the White House on Wednesday, Trump attempted to paint a rosy picture of COVID-19 cases in the country by suggesting that if “you take the blue states out” of the equation, the U.S. wouldn’t be experiencing an alarming death toll rate from the novel coronavirus compared to other countries. “If you take the blue states out, we’re at at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at,” Trump said. “We’re really at a very low level, but some of the states —they were blue states, and blue-state management.” After Trump singled out Democratic-led states for the country’s increasing COVID-19 fatality rate, without providing specific evidence to support his assertion, he went on to further rail against blue states for not easing up on coronavirus-related restrictions sooner.

    Trump is touting the total death figure because if this was done as the rate of change, one would notice states like Texas and Florida are much higher than states like NY. But yea – Trump does not care about anyone except people wearing MAGA hats.

    1. pgl

      I heard this morning that the Red States suffered 90 thousand COVID deaths. So as usual Trump’s statistics are full of $hit. Blue States deaths must be 107 thousand but let’s see if we can compare per capita. Any way of totaling the number of people in Blue States v. Red States?

      1. Willie

        You probably could pretty easily. Reuters and World-o-Meter both have the data parsed out by state and by deaths per hundred thousand or deaths per million. You can also look at total fatalities in each state, put that data into a spreadsheet, then sort by who holds the governorship and add it up. I’m personally not that motivated, especially since NYC got hit hard early, and now Texas, Florida, and some of the other red states are getting hit hard in spite of the fact that we know far more now than we did early in the pandemic when things got out of control on the east coast. California is the one Democratic Party controlled state that seems to be the exception for now.

        1. baffling

          texas and its fearless governor have decided to continue to reopen the restaurants to 75% capacity. since many of the major city schools are set to move from online to face-to-face in october, this is just one comedy of errors. why not try to push up the spread just as you move your kids back into schools. i guess it is more important for somebody to be able to sit at a bar eating his burger and drinking a beer, than to keep your children and their families safe at school. the nightmare never ends in maga land.

  3. Moses Herzog

    David Graeber passed away. Don’t know what his age was. Doesn’t strike me as a man who wouldn’t have taken every precaution under the sun to avoid the virus, so I assume it was something else that got him. I’ve got his book on debt laying around here somewhere, I was drawn to him mostly because of his contrarian leanings. You gotta like a guy who’s quicker to shift away from the crowd impulse than ride the wave.

    I feel a little ashamed I was 2 weeks late reading the news:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/04/books/david-graeber-dead.html

    It’s a very nice touch here, they even give the Dutch translation for Bulls***
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1scCQ6BXkGI

    1. pgl

      David was only 59 and was on vacation with his wife. Natural causes somehow related to internal bleeding is what I heard.

  4. pgl

    I wonder who Dr. Francis Collins was thinking about here:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/nih-director-vaccine-mistrust-mix-science-politics

    National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins said Wednesday that public hesitation about getting a vaccine to protect against coronavirus needs to be urgently addressed, suggesting that public mistrust of a vaccine has been “enhanced” by an “unfortunate mix of science and politics.” “Those who are vaccine hesitant have had their hesitancy enhanced by a variety of things that are happening right now, particularly the unfortunate mix of science and politics,” Collins said at an event hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

    Credit should go to the director of the CDC for telling the truth to Congress yesterday. Of course the Liar in Chief called him out for doing so.

      1. pgl

        Sammy – either you are stupid or a liar. Cuomo is not making this political. The governors of California or New Jersey are not making this political. But of course you bow down to Herr Trump so you must see everything with the same racist self centered and lying eyes that he does.

  5. Bruce Hall

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Now, you can argue that current mortality rates are higher in Texas and Florida, but that only reflects the nature of how this virus has spread from New York City to the rest of the country in a “slow roll”.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html

    But keep trying.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Bruce Hall: I’d argue it’s a combination of timing/cycle and advances in treatment protocols. I don’t know why you want to focus on cumulatives. Seems current rates are more indicative of effectiveness of current policies.

      1. pgl

        “I don’t know why you want to focus on cumulatives. Seems current rates are more indicative of effectiveness of current policies.”

        Here is why Bruce has to rely on cumulatives. New York got its daily death rate below 0.25 million for the last 3 weeks. How is Michigan doing Brucie boy?

      2. CoRev

        Biden yesterday: “I trust vaccines, I trust the scientists, but I don’t trust Donald Trump,”
        Trump yesterday: “I am calling on Biden to stop promoting his anti-vaccine theories,…a vaccine will be distributed “sometime in October” and contradicting his own CDC chief, who testified under oath that itwill not be widely available until well into 2021.. ”
        https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/16/joe-biden-coronavirus-vaccine-trump-416420

        I don’t expect the worst analyst in the world to understand the difference in these statements. for the rest of you reading I highlighted the important difference. An example of his analysis is in his comment where PGL references HHS Officials: 1) Dr Francis Collins is Dir. of NIH. 2) “Credit should go to the director of the CDC…” without naming him. DIR of CDC is Dr. Redfield. BUT neither of these fine gentlemen is Dir. of FDA who is responsible for the approval of (you can guess what the “D” stands for).

        BTW, Dr Fauci made this claim: “A COVID-19 vaccine could be available earlier than expected if ongoing clinical trials produce overwhelmingly positive results,…
        The Data and Safety Monitoring Board could say, “‘The data is so good right now that you can say it’s safe and effective,’”…
        In that case, researchers would have “a moral obligation” to end the trial early and make the active vaccine available to everyone in the study, including those who had been given placebos — and accelerate the process to give the vaccine to millions.”https://khn.org/news/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccine-trials-could-end-early-if-results-are-overwhelming/

        Also later the above reference states: ” Each study was designed to enroll 30,000 participants. Company officials have said both trials have enrolled about half that total….” It is comments like Biden’s that makes it difficult to enlist volunteer participants in many Covid-19 treatment (not just vaccines) studies.

        1. Willie

          No. It is covid donnie’s history of serial and blatant falsehoods the hinders recruiting. Bidern is pointing out what most non-trump sycophants think. You have your slant. It is completely slippery and unconvincing.

        2. pgl

          Biden is somehow hampering the pharma companies from doing phase III trials? Seriously? Excuse me CoRev but you have totally lost your marbles.

        3. baffling

          i think the sentiment presented by most of the scientific communities in both the cdc and fda, is they believe an effective (or effective enough) vaccine will be created. i think what the scientific community has stated, is their belief that we will not have enough data to show this to be true before the election. they make a note, that if we are able to develop a wonderdrug that shows superior performance, we can cut the date short. i do not hear anybody in the medical and scientific community comment they have much confidence that this will be the actual outcome.

          “The Data and Safety Monitoring Board could say, “‘The data is so good right now that you can say it’s safe and effective,’”…”
          corev, this is simply not the expected outcome by those in the know. it would be great, just not very likely. so the question becomes, how do you handle the situation where the vaccine is only 50% effective? at what timepoint do you pull the trigger and say this should be deployed as it improves our safety. especially if people take the vaccine and then quit social distancing and mask wearing? these are the hypotheticals that we should be dealing with. the slam dunk situation is a hypothetical with a very low probability. i wish that were not the case, but it is.

          “It is comments like Biden’s that makes it difficult to enlist volunteer participants in many Covid-19 treatment (not just vaccines) studies.”
          his comments have no bearing on the ability to enlist volunteers. the barrior has to do with time and effort involved by a participant. by the way corev, have you signed up to be a participant?

          1. CoRev

            Baffled: “corev, this is simply not the expected outcome by those in the know.” Take it up with Dr Fauci.

            Baffled, “his comments have no bearing on the ability to enlist volunteers” Baffled has not read many of Covid-19 TREATMENT studies (not just vaccine) and why they were terminated early or testing and their results slowed.

          2. bafflilng

            i have nothing to argue with fauci. he and i are in agreement. you are the outsider here, corev.

            covid treatments, such as hydroxychloroquine, were stopped because they were shown to be ineffective and unsafe. trump argued they were both safe and effective-and was wrong. same for drinking bleach, or sunburning our innards. it is commentary like trumps, which actually puts people into danger, that is problematic for recruitment of volunteers. and takes resources away from possible solutions. not that you really care about these issues, corev the covid.

          3. CoRev

            Baffled, you argued with a direct quote of Fauci’s and yet blame me? The election must be slipping away, eh?

          4. Baffling

            I did not argue with fauci. His quote included the term “could”. It was a hypothetical scenario presented by fauci. He has made it very clear this is not the outcome he expects. Corev, please improve your reading comprehension. Idiot.

          5. CoRev

            Baffled, yup, he used the term “could” to qualify a projection.

            I’ve also provided quotes from the manufacturers supporting Fauci’s projection. All you provided is personal opinion with “I think”. Not good enough. Try again.

        4. pgl

          “An example of his analysis is in his comment where PGL references HHS Officials: 1) Dr Francis Collins is Dir. of NIH. 2) “Credit should go to the director of the CDC…” without naming him. DIR of CDC is Dr. Redfield.

          I thought everyone knew it was Dr. Redfield who told the truth to Congress. Come on CoRev – we get you are a worthless argumentative a$$hole but please stop trying so hard to prove you are incredibly stupid. That has been obvious to everyone for years. Got any more stupid yet angry rants to waste our time with?

        1. pgl

          And your problem with this sensible statement? Oh yea – you prefer the insane babblings of Bruce Hall. MAGA!

          How did those retarded monkeys take over your keyboard? Your rants are generally quite stupid but of late they have Flown Over the Cuckoo’s Nest!

    2. pgl

      Hey Bruce – come to my city and say that. You won’t get a block from Penn Station before the police have to protect you. Assuming they choose too.

    3. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Why is there any “roll”? Unlike New York, Texas and Florida had plenty of time to get their acts together. New York bit the bullet and clamped down on the spread of the virus. States like Texas and Florida decided to “party on Garth” in blissful ignorance that the virus would ever invade the old Confederacy. Guess what? States like Washington, New York and New Jersey at least had a good excuse for getting whacked. No one saw it coming and Trump’s bungled handling of rushing US citizens in Europe back into the country didn’t help.

      1. pgl

        Trump lied to my governor. Had he told the truth from the beginning, we would have done a much better job of controlling this virus starting in February. Bruce knows this but remember – Bruce will not be able to pay his rent if he does not play Steno Sue for Kelly Anne Conway.

      2. pgl

        Back in April, no one would have blamed Florida and Texas had they had the common sense to put travel limitations on people from NY. ut as you noted, they decided to party on.

        Now that NY has reduced our problem considerably whereas the MAGA hat governors are seeing local disasters, NY has smartly decided to limit travel from places like Florida and Texas. That’s right – we do not want to see any of these MAGA hat morons in our state.

        Of course if Bruce Hall was stupid enough to come here with his MAGA hat, I fear for his little life as our police probably would choose not to protect him. Brucie – stay safe in your mother’s basement. That is where you belong.

  6. ltr

    September 16, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases ( 6,828,301)
    Deaths ( 201,348)

    India

    Cases ( 5,115,893)
    Deaths ( 83,230)

    Mexico

    Cases ( 676,487)
    Deaths ( 71,678)

    France

    Cases ( 404,888)
    Deaths ( 31,045)

    UK

    Cases ( 378,219)
    Deaths ( 41,684)

    Germany

    Cases ( 266,865)
    Deaths ( 9,449)

    Canada

    Cases ( 139,747)
    Deaths ( 9,193)

    China

    Cases ( 85,214)
    Deaths ( 4,634)

  7. ltr

    September 16, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 613)
    US   ( 608)
    Mexico   ( 555)
    France   ( 475)

    Canada   ( 243)
    Germany   ( 113)
    India   ( 60)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 11.0%, 7.7% and 10.6% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.

  8. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TQLTrRAnPW/index.html

    September 17, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

    The Chinese mainland registered 9 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Thursday.

    This is the 32nd consecutive day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland. No deaths from the disease were reported while 11 patients were discharged from hospitals.

    The total number of confirmed cases stands at 85,223 and the death toll 4,634, while 354 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TQLTrRAnPW/img/06ecddc8dec94fe99252c46b646502eb/06ecddc8dec94fe99252c46b646502eb.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-17/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TQLTrRAnPW/img/63da11f128234c6d9f1f2e4fcd744583/63da11f128234c6d9f1f2e4fcd744583.jpeg

    1. Dr. Dysmalist

      I first read that as ” new asymptotic cases” and thought, “Wait a minute. I know that the x-axis is an asymptote for China’s total cases per million (well, for all countries, but it’s relevant for China, not for us) so aren’t they all asymptotic?” Then I reread it. [Sigh] The week is already too long, and it’s not even finished yet.

  9. pgl

    Let’s unpack what Mark Meadows said this morning:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/meadows-cdc-chief-2021-timeline-vaccine-not-based-information-closest-to-process

    ‘Meadows: CDC Chief’s 2021 Vaccine Timeline ‘Not Based’ On Info From Those ‘Closest To The Process’ White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows asserted on Thursday morning that Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield didn’t have his facts straight when he told Congress that a COVID-19 vaccine wouldn’t be widely available until 2021, contradicting President Donald Trump’s insistence that the vaccine would be ready in October. When the hosts of “Fox and Friends” asked who was correct, Meadows claimed it was Trump “based on what I know behind the scenes, how quickly we’re moving on the clinical trials.” “I think that we’ll at least have some results in October,” the White House senior official said. “And as we start to look at those results, I can tell you the President is pushing very hard to make sure that we’re delivering a vaccine before the end of the year.” “So I’m not sure where Dr. Redfield got his particular timetable, but it’s not based on those that are closest to the process,” he added.

    During a hearing in front of the Senate on Wednesday, Redfield testified that a vaccine for the virus would not be “fully available to the American public” until next year, past Trump’s desired timeline of October, aka before Election Day. “I think we are probably looking at late second quarter, third quarter 2021,” the CDC director told lawmakers.’

    Redfield has been talking to the scientists.

    When Meadows says something about those closest to the process, he is talking about himself, Jared Kushner, and that Cavuto person. You know – the political process.

    1. CoRev

      PGL, again showing his ignorance: “When Meadows says something about those closest to the process, he is talking about himself, Jared Kushner, and that Cavuto person. You know – the political process.” Redfield’s agency, CDC, does not approve new drugs. The FDA does. Both are part of the HHS. The latest data is resident in the Manufacturers performing the tests, Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech and AstraZeneca.
      https://khn.org/news/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccine-trials-could-end-early-if-results-are-overwhelming/
      Does Redfield have the latest data? Maybe. Maybe not. “Right now, only the safety board has access to the trial data, said Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services. As for when trial results will be available, “we cannot determine if it will be the middle of October or December.””

      Redield also made this statement: “In trials of this size, researchers will know if a vaccine is effective after as few as 150 to 175 infections, said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a call with reporters Friday.

      “It may be surprising, but the number of events that need to occur is relatively small,” Redfield said.

      1. 2slugbaits

        CoRev Dr Fauci says COVID vaccine trials could end early if results are overwhelming

        First, are you familiar with the subjunctive mood?

        Second, there’s no evidence that the results are “overwhelming”.

        Finally, look at the date of your article. It’s well before Oxford/AstraZeneca had to temporarily suspend their trial. That doesn’t support a case for test results being overwhelmingly positive enough to justify early release.

      2. pgl

        ‘Does Redfield have the latest data?’

        In a well functioning government he would. But given the utter chaos of the Trump Administration maybe you have a point there.

        Now if you think you have just endorses Trump’s incompetency – you are dumber than I could ever imagine.

      3. baffling

        ““It may be surprising, but the number of events that need to occur is relatively small,” Redfield said.”
        this is in reference to a trial that fails early. it is not in reference to a trial that succeeds early. it is much easier to show a drug fails than it is to show a drug succeeds.

        1. 2slugbaits

          Exactly. A point I made to CoRev before reading your comment to the same effect. CoRev is dumb as a box of rocks.

        2. pgl

          You forget to say Redfield heads the CDC. Now CoRev will school you on that omission as he is truly an argumentative idiot.

          1. [email protected]

            “You forget to say Redfield heads the CDC.” and NOT the NIH, lead agency on some studies and NOT FDA, the approval agency for all. All Report to HHS which in turn reports to the President and his staff. Who I assure you has a DIRECT LINK to the all US and foreign testers and manufacturers. Unlike 2slugs and Baffled who can only assume or assert.

  10. macroduck

    The effective reproduction rate (rate of transmission) is below 1 in 24 states as of the latest data (https://rt.live/ – Hey, Moses). Two months ago, 35 states had rates below 1. It is to be expected that the death rate would rise following a rise in the rate of tranmission.

    Summer’s end and school openings risk a further rise in the rate of transmission. That would naturally result in a rise in the death rate, all else equal.

    1. pgl

      These are ranges. NY is anywhere from 0.83 to 1.27 but we get classified above 1. Huh. NY also has seen huge drops in new cases and daily deaths.

      I appreciate the link as data on these things matter even if one has to take everything with a grain of salt (but not with a gulp of bleach).

    2. Barkley Rosser

      md,

      Well, if only we had all followed the wise advice of our Great Leader and opened all schools everywhere this would not be a problem., right, Sammy? I mean he has let us know that all these coid deaths are due to meanie Blue States with their lockdowns rather than the goodly open states like Florida and South Dakota!

  11. CoRev

    Biden yesterday: “I trust vaccines, I trust the scientists, but I don’t trust Donald Trump,”
    Trump yesterday: “I am calling on Biden to stop promoting his anti-vaccine theories,…a vaccine will be distributed “sometime in October” and contradicting his own CDC chief, who testified under oath that itwill not be widely available until well into 2021.. ”
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/16/joe-biden-coronavirus-vaccine-trump-416420

    I don’t expect the worst analyst in the world to understand the difference in these statements. for the rest of you reading I highlighted the important difference. An example of his analysis is in his comment where PGL references HHS Officials: 1) Dr Francis Collins is Dir. of NIH. 2) “Credit should go to the director of the CDC…” without naming him. DIR of CDC is Dr. Redfield. BUT neither of these fine gentlemen is Dir. of FDA who is responsible for the approval of (you can guess what the “D” stands for).

    BTW, Dr Fauci made this claim: “A COVID-19 vaccine could be available earlier than expected if ongoing clinical trials produce overwhelmingly positive results,…
    The Data and Safety Monitoring Board could say, “‘The data is so good right now that you can say it’s safe and effective,’”…
    In that case, researchers would have “a moral obligation” to end the trial early and make the active vaccine available to everyone in the study, including those who had been given placebos — and accelerate the process to give the vaccine to millions.”https://khn.org/news/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccine-trials-could-end-early-if-results-are-overwhelming/

    Also later the above reference states: ” Each study was designed to enroll 30,000 participants. Company officials have said both trials have enrolled about half that total….” It is comments like Biden’s that makes it difficult to enlist volunteer participants in many Covid-19 treatment (not just vaccines) studies.

    1. 2slugbaits

      CoRev You’re desperate. Trump has no idea when the vaccine will be available. No one does. Even the pharma companies don’t know. If all goes well the expectation is that we might (emphasize might) have positive results from the clinical trials by late October. Filling an inside straight is not impossible, but it can happen. But even if a vaccine gets approved in late October, no one believes that it will be available to the general public until well into 2021. I’m sure that Fearless CMDR Bonespurs will be the first to jump at the head of the line to get a vaccine, but very, very, very, very, very few people will have the opportunity to get a vaccine before election day even if everything goes at warp speed and without a hitch. I heard Trump. He was clearly trying to reassure his base that a vaccine would be widely available before the election. I also heard Dr. Redfield. He was clearly referring to when a vaccine would likely be widely available to the general public. It was that comment that caused Trump to say that Redfield was confused. If Trump and Redfield both meant the same thing, then why did Trump say Redfield was confused?

      As to Biden not trusting Trump. Would you trust a vaccine if Trump said it was okay but the scientists at the FDA did not say it was okay? Of course, you probably injected yourself with bleach too. I don’t think it’s comments like Biden’s that are discouraging people from enrolling. It’s far more likely that it’s concerns over Trump’s politicization of HHS, CDC and the FDA. The demographic groups that are underrepresented in the clinical trials are precisely the groups that trust Biden the most and trust Trump the least…and with good reason. Would you trust the word of someone with over 30,000 documented lies in a little over three years?

      As to Fauci’s comments about ending the trials early, that is standard procedure if (and only if) the results are unambiguously effective and safe. That’s just standard policy. But no one is saying that the clinical results are anywhere near that threshold. Not even close.

      1. CoRev

        2slugs, “ If Trump and Redfield both meant the same thing, then why did Trump say Redfield was confused?” I even highlighted the important part of Redfield’s comment, and yet you have comprehension problems.

        You being the insider that you are: “But no one is saying that the clinical results are anywhere near that threshold. Not even close.” All this to deny that the ONE PERSON with access to all parties’ data is strongly hinting. Let me repeat Redfield’s other recent comment:
        “Redield also made this statement: “In trials of this size, researchers will know if a vaccine is effective after as few as 150 to 175 infections, said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in a call with reporters Friday.”

        Surely your insider status can give us the number of infections in the two groups. You claim I’m desperate? I prefer to not make assumptions and just show the error in others’ assumptions.

        1. 2slugbaits

          CoRev The important part of Redfield’s comment was that a vaccine would not be widely distributed until mid-2021. Trump said Redfield was confused. What part of that do you not comprehend?

          I’m not an insider and neither is President Trump. And neither is Dr. Redfield since the details of the clinical trials have been tightly held by the drug developers.

          researchers will know if a vaccine is effective after as few as 150 to 175 infections

          Read that carefully. It means that if we see 150 to 175 infections, then we’ll know the vaccine is NOT effective. Why else do you think he said “as few as”? The point of the vaccine trials is to demonstrate that we won’t see infections. If we see as few as 150 to 175 infections, then we’ll know that the vaccine is not up to the job. More than 175 infections would justify shutting down the clinical trials as a failure. You seem to have gotten it completely bass ackwards. Also note that effectiveness is not the only criterion. The vaccine must also be shown to be safe.

          1. CoRev

            2slugs, thank you for admitting your not an insider and only personal opinion. Why the need to lie? Adding the word NOT to a quote is lying!

            I agree with you that the vaccine manufacturers are holding their test result close to the vest. Unless of course they make PUBLIC pronouncements. WSJ 9/18/20
            “Moderna Study Set For Results In Months … Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel said the timing will depend on rates of infection in the U.S. locations where the trial is being conducted, because the study is comparing whether fewer vaccinated people come down with symptomatic Covid-19 than unvaccinated people.

            Researchers will assess this at intervals after a certain number of cases occur, ranging from 53 cases to 151 cases.

            “Thankfully for the U.S. population it has become better the last few weeks,” he said, referring to a general decline in new cases since August. “That actually makes it harder for an October readout on efficacy of the vaccine.

            “If Moderna’s interim results are positive, the company could seek government authorization for emergency use of the vaccine soon thereafter, Mr. Bancel said. That could lead to quick distribution of any available doses, which Moderna has been manufacturing.

            Also included in the article was this comment from Pfizer, the other major manufacturer: “Albert Bourla, in recent television interviews, also gave an end-October time frame. ”
            and

            Please don’t turn into PGL letting your TDS bias and lying TOTALLY over rule any logic.

          2. CoRev

            Menzie, sometimes this old man messes up. I admit it! Selectively pointing such common errors is petty, don’cha think?

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: If one is to make provocative and hard-to-verify assertions, then one should be on double-guard for errors in message transmission. At least, that’s my view.

          4. 2slugbaits

            CoRev You’re confusing “best case” outcomes and “most likely” outcomes. No one is disputing the claim that if everything goes swimmingly in a perfect world, then the FDA might be able to authorize a vaccine by the end of October. Of course, the logistics would severely limit how many vaccines get distributed, although I’m sure CMDR Bonespurs will cut to the front of the line. But that doesn’t make the extreme possibility of an October approval anymore likely than the chances of my filling an inside straight while holding a four of spades and an 8 of diamonds. Not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. In any event, whether a vaccine is approved at the end of October or the end of November won’t change the fact that the vaccine won’t be widely available to the general public until mid-2021.

            Did you read the Moderna comment? I mean actually read it. Hint: “Months” is plural. The WSJ article was dated 18 Sep. Do the math. And did you understand what he meant when he said that fewer positive COVID cases would likely push out the date when Moderna can request approval from the FDA? He’s saying that an end of October date is less likely.

            And let’s review how a clinical trial works. The critical number is the number of failures (i.e., infections). You want as few positive cases as possible. That’s why “as few as” 150 to 175 positive cases would be enough to determine that the vaccine is NOT effective. Contrary to your misunderstanding, “as few as” 150 to 175 positive cases does not mean you an accept the effectiveness of the vaccine. That’s just not how you do clinical trials. Everyone else seems to understand the distinction. Why can’t you?

          5. CoRev

            2slugs, I’m not confusing anything, just providing quotes. You’re interpreting them through TDS glasses. I’m not the one claiming Trump is lying. I’m not adding words to a quote to confirm bias.

          6. 2slugbaits

            CoRev The problem is that you don’t understand the English language. You obviously misunderstood (and badly misunderstood) what the Moderna spokesperson was saying. And yes, you’re one very confused old man. So confused that you even voted for Nixon not once, but twice!

        2. pgl

          A quiz for you. Do you even know what phase III trials even are? Clearly Trump has no clue. How about quality control? Oh I’m sorry – I’m using basic concepts for the biopharma sector which of course you could care less about. Please proceed with your angry argumentative and dishonest rants.

          1. pgl

            “PGL, what an angry and dishonest rant.”

            I asked a simple question. I guess you cannot answer it as you have no clue what phase III clinical trials are about. Which explains your general stupidity on these matters.

  12. ltr

    Of course I trust information from China almost as much as I trust anything from Donald Trump.

    [ This is a racist comment, of course.

    This administration from the beginning has fostered racism directed against the people of China. We are to be returned to the Cold War decades, even to the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 and beyond. ]

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      ltr: Actually, I would say it’s a statement based upon assessing the degree to which the CCP has managed information. Historically, I have trusted HK and Singapore statistics.

      1. baffling

        i know people from mainland china who agree with that statement, ltr. most folks in china are under no illusions as to the accuracy, or lack thereof, of much that comes from beijing. it simply does not bother them, as they accept that to be the life in china today. trying to argue such a statement is racist, prejudice or derogatory is to deny reality. the argument is not the china is bad. the argument is that it is not transparent.

        1. Moses Herzog

          @ baffling
          The overwhelming majority of Chinese people are good salt-of-the Earth type people. It is the system or higher levels of China’s government which “twists” them over time and creates a misperception about Chinese people. Similar to Jews running away from Germany and Europe in World War 2. America benefits, we get “the cream of the crop”.

          Canada, America, Australia, New Zealand, etc. we all benefit by getting the cream of the crop in Chinese immigrants. It’s one of our biggest ace cards in negotiations when the leaders in Beijing and Chinese corporate leaders know if they want their kids to be anything they have to send them to western schools.

          Mainland Chinese are not dumb. quite the opposite~~~they know the score. Knowing the score and speaking it out to foreigners are two different things. They (generally) do not need “lectures” from Americans about how Beijing treats them.

      2. Moses Herzog

        You know I hesitate saying this, and truly have a lot of reticence saying it, for more than one reason, not the least of which the purge going on in HK right now and extending back over years. But I would say this~~~ donald trump and Hillary Clinton are pathological liars. That is they will take an opportunity to lie, even when that lie is completely unnecessary. With the Beijing leadership, it’s mostly a pragmatic type/form of lying. So, does this mean Beijing leaders are more honest than donald trump?? I think a strong argument could be made.

        On a side note, I would also say that once mainland Chinese get past being worried they will offend you, once most mainland Chinese citizens become your friend, they can match any American in terms of honesty, and might even beat the “mean average” of the honesty of any randomly picked American. That is with the proviso/asterisk *once they become your friend .

        I did have some doozies told to me in my 7 years there, so…… I’m trying to be objective here. But that is how I see it overall.

        1. baffling

          “With the Beijing leadership, it’s mostly a pragmatic type/form of lying. So, does this mean Beijing leaders are more honest than donald trump?? I think a strong argument could be made.”
          be careful here, moses. rick stryker used a similar type of rationalizing to argue that donald trump is an honest politician, because his lies were an effort to simply achieve his goals. you do not want to be in the same neighborhood as the porn star, on this topic of lying.

  13. ltr

    There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 32 days.  Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.  Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

    The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.  There are as a result 141 active coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 2 cases are classed as serious or critical.

  14. ltr

    Of course I trust information from China almost as much as I trust anything from Donald Trump.

    [ This statement is general, sweeping and derogatory. The statement is not hedged or limited in scope. The statement derides an entire people, is prejudiced and absurd.

    This statement is just what this administration has been fostering in instructing Americans how to think about the people of China. I suggest looking to the always prejudiced remarks on China of Secretary Pompeo, on almost any given day. ]

  15. ltr

    Of course I trust information from China almost as much as I trust anything from Donald Trump.

    [ This statement demeans the people of China, which is just what this administration has been and is teaching Americans and all who can be so influenced to do. At least we should understand what prejudice is, given how dangerous it is. ]

    1. macroduck

      You seem a little confused about how public discourse is done in the U.S. Let me help.

      Haranguing is generally seen as rude and unsophisticated. Pronouncements about what is “right speech” is not characteristic of U.S. discussions. More of a State TV kind of thing. I can’t tell if you are paid to intervene here, but if so, your employer is not getting much value.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Sorry, ltr, but the CCP is not the same thing as “the people of China,” even if it claims to be, and statements from you claiming such have zero credibility. You make some intelligent comments here, but this stuff is just stupid propaganda.

      Menzie has probably done more empirical studies of the Chinese economy than I have, but I have done several over the years and am coauthor of the world’s leading textbook on comparative economics, with also having long knowledge of Chinese culture and history from when I was young. I have to agree with Menzie that economic data out of the PRC is regularly unreliable, although not as bad as what used to come out of the old USSR. In any case, it is certainly far less reliable than what one gets out of Hong Kong (or used to), Singapore, and Taiwan.

      I do not have independent information about reliability of health data, but there is an obvious strong political/ideological/diplomatic motive to distort the data on SARS-Cov-2 infections. That said, it is pretty clear that China certainly has done far better than the US in getting infections down, and better than many other nations as well. But making charges of racism, etc. when people express skepticism about the ptrecise accuracy of numbers you post here just makes you look like propagandizing fool.

    3. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      I have just double checked your claims. Worldometer agrees with what you have stated here avbout zero new cases since April. But other sources disagree. I found an Associated Press story from August 10 reporting that there has been a decline of “locally transmitted casess” to 14 per day, with over 30 coming in through Chinese returning from abroad.

      I also checked Corona Tracker, which reports 10 new cases in China on Sept. 18, now yesterday in China. You should be a bit more careful about throwing around accusations of racism when people here express doubt about numbers you claim here. They are not fully credible.

    4. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      I see, double checking that you claim no deaths since May and no new cases in 32 days.

      I have just further double checked Statista, which relies on the World Health Organization. The do not report any new deaths in the last 24 hours, but they do report 44 new cases within the last 24 hours in China.

      It looks like you are just handing out full-blown flaming lies here, while being very self-righteous about it. Yes, this resembles President Trump and his various spolkespoeple here, who seem to suffering severe cases of TDS, taken in by mountains of fake news as the yare.

  16. baffling

    Stéphane Bancel, Moderna chief executive, told CNBC that if the infection rate in the US slowed in the coming weeks, it may not be able to examine data until December. 
    https://www.ft.com/content/69215c2a-c665-4ac9-b041-538a1aff9d25

    so it appears the comments out of the vaccine pharma companies is that if infection rates continue to fall around the nation, it will take longer to analyze the data because too few infections will have occurred in the trial timeline. the companies indicate that only an increase in infections can result in a shortened timeline that could produce an early trial success. i can only make a very dark and morbid guess that this is what is behind trumps more recent attempts to goad the country into dangerous behavior. in his view, the only path to reelection is a vaccine available before the election. and the ONLY way that can occur, is if we can restart the virus fire so that enough people get sick, or not, to verify the effectiveness of the vaccine. puts back into context his push for football games and indoor rallies with no masks or social distancing, which is a reversal from about a month ago. what a dark and perverted monster trump has become.

    1. pgl

      And of course the Usual Suspects blame Biden for all of this. If Biden was not wearing that masks, the number of cases would be yuuuuge. MAGA!

      1. baffling

        i wrote my comment before hearing about the claims from olivia troye. after hearing her comments, i no longer believe my comments are a guess. this is exactly what the president is doing-creating the only condition whereby a vaccine could be approved prior to the election. olivia troye was a leader of the task force from vice president pence office. she is not some democrat with wild accusations. she is a loyal republican. and has stated that trump made decision making on the coronavirus based upon its impact on his reelection chances, not on the welfare of the nation. this is treasonous. rick stryker, corev and bruce hall, along with the assortment of other idiots on this site, there is blood on your hands for your support of this callous disregard for your nations safety. you will have much to answer for come judgement day.

      1. baffling

        you need to come up with another explanation for why the president continues to promote activities that increase infections, rather than decrease the spread. i think it is a sad state of affairs when i have to make such a declaration about the president. but this is not simply from Dems/liberals, as you try to argue. ms. troye is a lifelong republican. her views are that trump has made dangerous decisions based upon his election prospects, not the overall safety of the nation. this appears to be a bipartisan criticism of the president, corev. try barking up another tree, idiot.

  17. noneconomist

    It would be great to have a safe vaccine available and deliverable next month. Alas, the likelihood of that is less considerably than Angelina Jolie announcing her engagement to CoRev.

    1. macroduck

      Are you sure? I mean, a reliable vaccine in the next few months ain’t gonna happen, but you may have identified the only negative probability event in the known universe as a comparison.

  18. Dr. Dysmalist

    I first read that as ” new asymptotic cases” and thought, “Wait a minute. I know that the x-axis is an asymptote for China’s total cases per million (well, for all countries, but it’s relevant for China, not for us) so aren’t they all asymptotic?” Then I reread it. [Sigh] The week is already too long, and it’s not even finished yet.

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