Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 11/25/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 11/25 accessed 11/25/2020 and author’s calculations.
Upward revision of excess deaths (calculated as actual minus expected) going from 11/11 vintage to 11/25 vintage for the week ending 10/24 is about 5700 (that’s a 7 day total)
My experience with these series is that the CDC excess count series moves upward toward a line parallel to, and shifted upward from, the Our World in Data series (see this post). In other words, excess fatalities are likely rising (I say likely, because these are statistical estimates, not administrative counts; note I calculate excess fatalities as actual minus expected allowing for negative counts, while CDC bounds below at zero). So, whatever you think of the trend in the commonly reported (administratively designated) fatality series, the truth is likely worse.
As hospitalization rates and fatality rates climb — also I think likely in the wake of the Thanksgiving holidays — I expect further decreases relative to usual levels of contact-intensive services spending.
The increasing frequency of news reports (e.g., NYT) about a further deceleration in Q1 — perhaps even negative — reflects the enormity of the surge and the diminishing hopes for a large and imminent fiscal recovery package. The news reports reflect in turn the increasing short term pessimism for growth from investment bank reports. The unemployment claims increase for the last week merely reinforces the negative short term view.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
This source has the 7-day moving average of deaths per day in the US at 1657. And Bruce Hall told us it would drop well below 700 and never go back up. Of course now that Trump has lost the election – this lying sycophants have decided to run and hide.
It is curious how the usual suspects (CoRev, sammy and Ed Hanson) have not been heard from since the election. Crickets. Bruce Hall had one drive-by post and hasn’t been heard since. Did they get fired from their jobs as paid trolls? Are they (at long last) finally embarrassed by Trump’s obvious craziness? Did they succumb to COVID?
As to the increasing death toll, are we surprised given the stupidity of so many Americans? If 74 million people were stupid enough to vote for a huckster like Donald Trump, why are we shocked when we see so many ignoring CDC guidance and going to grandma’s house today and grandma’s funeral for Xmas? Americans flunk the marshmallow test once again. Instead of holding off on family celebrations until Easter, by which time vaccines will be available, Americans demonstrate how myopic they truly are.
And speaking of the vaccines, the logistics of distributing the vaccines will be quite a challenge, but it is reassuring that GEN Perna is heading up that effort. I know Perna. I used to work for him and I always found that he asked smart questions. He never pretended to be an expert, but was always eager to listen to experts.
2slugs asks: “Did they succumb to COVID? ” I can’t answer for the others, but as for me the answer is a resounding, NO! I did succumb to a quad by-pass. I certainly had more important things to consider, than the arrogant liberal BS.
CoRev Good to hear that you’re still on this side of eternity. Happy Thanksgiving and skip the dark meat and gravy.
Are those “more important things to consider” helping John Lott with his statistics that Rudy Giuliani can abuse to assert Pennsylvania voter fraud? Gook luck with that one!
@ CoRev
Yeah, I would agree making up things about the latest “darkie” politician coming to take your gun…… Saying a “darkie” politician requesting you have the basic intelligence to wear a mask during a pandemic and wash your hands with good quality soap is an “invasion of your freedoms”……. Maybe having the intelligence post 1985 dietary guidelines not to stuff your face with cholesterol everyday is probably “more important”.
Or should I guess based on the median level of the intelligence of your comments here that you have smoked cigarettes a significant portion of your life as well?? No, too insulting of an educated guess. I would never do that. This is why I never tell Barkley Junior to take vitamin D which helps with lung infections (a large part of Covid-19 symptoms). Because….. Junior could have allergies to vitamin D. Have some extra bacon for me, ok CoRev???
Moses,
The serious health problems in my family right now involve brain cancer and heart disease, nothing to do with lungs. I am currently healthy myself. But, hey, thanks for the advice! I mean, I had never heard any of this about Vitamin D before. Wow. Wonders will never cease.
Moses, as usual you are totally wrong on each count. Why do you persist in your own projections?
BTW, the hospital Dr. took me off Vitamins – D, C and E as well as many of my old medications and replaced with a new set.
This snarkily inaccurate post is an example why I seldom read yours, even those specifically naming me.
For the rest of you, my priorities are adjusted to appreciate my family, friends and neighbors who care, and to ignore the stupid and inhumane.
I have a hard time feeling sorry for dumb people who make poor decisions such as eating high cholesterol foods, smoking (which as I suspected CoRev hasn’t denied) and then expecting us to pay higher premiums because they want to act like 12 year olds in high school. People on here regular should be able to make damned good guesses on my age. Never had a single respiratory or cardiac event, after being born with a murmur. Have I made generally good choices?? You figure it out.
Let’s all “guess” what a man who probably never wears a mask during a pandemic and/or thinks it’s a chin-diaper does on his personal health choices. Even the obtuse Barkley Junior can probably figure out that “enigma”.
As far as ignoring my comments?? Do you notice~~~ as acidic as people perceive me to be on this blog I rarely directly reply to your and the “usual suspects”comments on here?? Probably less that Menzie, 2slugbaits, and macroduck do (among the people here whom I respect). You know why?? I have little interest in interacting with people who have the equivalent intelligence of the Chow Chow breed with a purple tongue hanging out of its mouth.
Congratulations, Moses. You have provided a role model for how to avoid interacting with dumb people, whether they live in Virginia or have purple tongues hanging out of their mouths. People here will be not only grateful for your great achievement in not interacting with dumb people, but greatly admiring it as well. i certainly do. Wow. This is even more impressive than all that advice about Vitamin D.
Quad bypass surgery is usually the result of poor life decisions regarding lifestyle and diet. Hope you take this opportunity to improve on your choices. And follow your doctors advice now, social distance and wear a mask.
Baffled, you are just as wrong as Moses. Genetics also plays a MAJOR role in medical conditions. But, you knew that and still couldn’t resist making a foolish comment.
Moses, what part of: “Moses, as usual you are totally wrong on each count.” is so hard to understand?
CovRev wrote: “Genetics also plays a MAJOR role in medical conditions. ”
Sorry, many of the so called lifestyle deseases are only known as widespread issue for two or three generations, therefore, we can exclude genetics as major role. You are talking nonsnese again.
“ Genetics also plays a MAJOR role in medical conditions.”
Corev, we know genetics can affect medical issues. And if a 30 year old requires a quad bypass, then i would say genetics played a major roll. But we both know you are an old man. Genetics had little to do with your condition. Rather, it was more the environment. 50 years of poor dietary and exercise decisions clogged your arteries. Rather than accept responsibility for your condition, you blame it on genetics. Convenient. But at least you are learning, as genetics supports evolution. So you must not be a supporter of creationism.
Ulenspiegel and baffled, you both just qualified for the dumbest comments I have EVER read. US thinks heart disease is a recent (3 generations) life style disease, but it has been found even in Egyptian mummies. “People often associate high cholesterol with an unhealthy lifestyle –– greasy food, lack of exercise, and smoking. The role of genetics is often overlooked. In the case of familial hypercholesterolemia, a healthy lifestyle alone probably can’t bring your LDL down. You will need to work with your provider to manage it, which may include taking medications.” https://www.pennmedicine.org/updates/blogs/heart-and-vascular-blog/2019/january/inherited-heart-diseases
Couple the actual diseases with genetic disposition of sensitivity to the more common medicines and you have compounded the genetic picture. Next time you are prescribed a medicine read the side effects. If you are lucky genetically you may have none of them. Others may not.
Baffled you have made some laughter comments, but this one is amazes: “Genetics had little to do with your condition.” I guess Dr Baffled is smarter than some of the best cardiologists in the country. “Many different types of heart disease can be passed down through families. Some are caused by just one or a few genetic changes that have a very strong effect in causing disease. Known as monogenic conditions, they include uncommon disorders that mostly affect the heart’s muscle (such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy) or electrical system (such as long QT syndrome). Another example is familial hypercholesterolemia, which causes very high cholesterol levels and may lead to premature coronary artery disease (occurring before age 50). https://www.health.harvard.edu/heart-health/the-genetics-of-heart-disease-an-update
Or this one: “Conclusions
We found that genetic variants in disease-causal gene networks contribute to a major portion of previously unidentified CAD heritability (11,12The GRNs with the strongest influence on CAD risk were found in fat and the arterial wall, which by inference signifies these tissues as being particularly important in understanding the pathobiology of CAD. A major step in the future battle of CAD, we believe, will be to assess how our knowledge and understanding of these network models can achieve earlier prevention, diagnosis, and more effective network-focused therapies.” https://www.onlinejacc.org/doi/full/10.1016/j.jacc.2019.03.520
Nope, in your world it is and can only be caused by environment and life style. I and my siblings don’t need to answer any of those family history questions. They don’t apply, especially past 3 generations. Nor do the sensitivities to common heart medicines apply, since they are caused by environment and life style.
Another example of wrong headed judements.
“Many different types of heart disease can be passed down through families. Some are caused by just one or a few genetic changes that have a very strong effect in causing disease. ”
now before we get deeper into this conversation, corev, i will warn you that i am quite familiar with the field of cardiogenetics. respected by some of the leading folks in the field to the point i have reviewed their research grant proposals. i do not practice in that field, but i am aware of the field. you have no experience in this area, besides a couple of goodle searches. so let’s deal with your case specifically. exactly what has been identified as a cardiovascular issue with direct relationship to genetics. in particular, have you even had a genotype test run to determine if there are any variants in your genes that could contribute to cardiovascular disease? because as YOU quoted above, this information is known and can be searched. exactly which genes have a defect resulting in your disease?
and i will point out again, if you were a 30 or 40 year old requiring quad bypass surgery, genetics probably plays a big role. but you are not. you are an old white male, who made a lifetime of poor dietary and exercise decisions. in old age, genetic disease is not the culprit. drinking, smoking and eating pure lard for the majority of your life is a great contributor to quad bypass surgery. if you had spent a lifetime exercising and eating a good diet, you would NOT be in the position you are today. the fact you cannot take ownership of your own faults speaks volumes. “its not my fault, its genetics” is your excuse for a lifetime of stooopidness. it is called DENIAL.
“I and my siblings don’t need to answer any of those family history questions.”
yes you do. you also need to answer the question about your lifelong exercise and dietary habits. poor decisions will catch up to you eventually. just ask trump.
Baffled, more BS!
no corev, my comments are pretty factual here. your doctor understood that if he came out and laid blame on your poor lifestyle choices, it would not have benefited your medical recovery. and you are really too old for those changes to have a significant impact now, the damage is done. so he took it easy on your ego, and let you believe there was a POSSIBILITY that your quad bypass was the result of genetics and not poor lifestyle decisions. but lets be frank here, corev. you ended up in the hospital because of years of poor decision making. even if you had no genetic predisposition, i would bet your lifestyle still would have sent you to the operating table as you aged. you are not alone here. lots of old folks in this country are in a similar position because of the same lifestyle decisions. i myself am guilty more often than not as well. but i ain’t a coward like you, denying my contribution.
corev, i will point out, you did not provide evidence of the genetic condition creating your quad bypass. my guess is because there really is not much there. but i bet all those years of smoking, eating poorly and not exercising were pretty big contributors. idiot.
Baffled: “ my guess is because there really is not much there. but i bet all those years of smoking, eating poorly and not exercising were pretty big contributors. idiot.” As waw Moses, you are wrong on all counts.
The arrogance of a liberal mind is evident in your assumption that you can diagnose my specific case from afar and without any knowledge. I gave you enough information to understand the genetic ramifications of my case, but, in your arrogant ignorance you presume superior knowledge.
You’re a special kind of personal troll.
“I gave you enough information to understand the genetic ramifications of my case”
no. you shared copy and paste of various genetic issues with some cardiovascular issues. i do not dispute those-i am knowledgable about the field. but you have not shown any evidence that those issues apply directly to you. just like you cannot accept how wrong you are about global warming, you cannot admit you were the main cause for your trip to the operating room. take your doctors advice. quit smoking, stop drinking, eat better and get off the couch every once in a while. just quit blaming genetics for your personal failures.
Hi 2slugbaits,
I am lying low, which is advisable when the all the winds are blowing against you. Also, I don’t think the election is in the bag for Biden, so it doesn’t make sense to opine on the presidency and economic policies of Sleepy Joe.
I suspect massive voter fraud. However, suspicion is just probable cause, not evidence. Even if there is evidence of fraud on a scale that would decide the election, I don’t know if there are operative mechanisms or enough time to overturn the current results. However if the election was fraudulent and is allowed to stand, this bodes ill for America as we know it. The “Progressives” will be in charge forever.
“I suspect massive voter fraud. However, suspicion is just probable cause, not evidence.”
Oh you are John Lott’s research assistance. And between the two of you you cannot cook the statistics? OK!
Big connection between Repubs and 5th graders. When 5h graders lose, it MUST be because the other side cheated.
Yeah, Sammy. Like the van with Biden-Harris painted on the side pulling up to a precinct in Vegas with thousands of fake votes inside that Fat Matt Schlapp described in detail.
Massive fraud, fer sure.
And Sammy, you can now get back to wailing (and gnashing teeth) re: deficits and debt. Who—other than plenty of small businesses and millions of unemployed—needs another costly stimulus anyway?
Also, you can harp on government data being totally wrong. That you’re now positive the unemployment data is totally fake, unlike it was during the Tump years.
When the Dow goes down, you can point to that as being proof things have gone south, that there go the Dems again, unlike, the honest numbers pre covid Tump.
You can once again join those who will scream for a tax cut because we all know tax cuts always pay for themselves, that trickle down is a sure fire way to freedom and prosperity when the wealthy have most to gain.
Be sure to cheer when the Supreme Court eliminates Obamacare because, Tump had a much better, cheaper and all around swell medical insurance plan five years in the making.
In other words, be as dishonest and duplicitous as Republicans have grown accustomed to being. Cheer heartily when Moscow Mitch wants to wait until 2024 to fill a Court vacancy.
As Trump fades into the sunset and into more legal troubles, remember the modified words of WH Nelson:
Turn out the lights, the party’s over
Call it a night, the party’s over
Thank God, tomorrow won’t start the same old thing again
“all the winds are blowing against” you? Last I heard GOP made gains both in the House and state legislatures, not to mention that with religious fanatic Amy Barrett Coney on the SCOTUS churches will soon be allowed not only to be coronavirus superspreaders but disctiminate against others as they please. Hey, next they will ptrobably be allowed to own slaves based on quotations from the Bible.
To put things in perspective, it increasingly looks that most of the European nations that have seen surges are beginning to move past their peaks on the various lagged variables, although many of them still have higher death rates than we do in the US. But they are mostly in the position of beginning to get better, while in the US we are still getting worse on pretty much all fronts across nearly the entire nation.
This is why the epidemiologists are so freaked about Thanksgiving. Just when it looks like maybe things had topped out we get Americans being Americans… three million going through airports, everybody deciding that ‘their’ T-day get-together will be perfectly safe.
Roughly 316 non-negligent homicides per week in the U.S. Roughly 5700 excess deaths per week due to Covid. One of our two main political parties ran on law and order while downplaying Covid in this year’s election. That’s why we can’t have nice things.
For our commenters who seem to have missed this point during the campaign, 5700 is bigger than 316. We won’t bother with the “order of magnitude” issue. Baby steps.
On the point of the Q1 economic outlook, personal income fell in October. Real disposable personal income was off 0.8% in October from September. Weekly jobless claims are rising again, his time without a federal supplement to jobless benefits. Much more of that pattern and a decline in Q1 GDP will be really hard to avoid.
That really doesn’t matter. Credit is free and cheap. I doubt you get a decline. Then the pandemic is over by 2nd quarter 2021.
fwiw, jobless claims are irrelevant. Watch when the pandemic ends in a couple of months. They will fall off a cliff.
You really know everything, don’t you? You’re more knowledgeable about economics than economists. You know more about politics than political scientists. And you know more about humility than the residents of Humble, Texas.
Here I was thinking that credit was hard to come by for small firms, which are among the hardest hit by the pandemic. I thought banks had tightened lending standards more or less across them board, but I was relying on Fed research (https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202010.htm). How embarrassing for me to learn from you that credit is both free AND cheap.
I thought initial claims had an excellent record of signaling the onset and end of recession, but I was basing that view on an examination of the data (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IC4WSA) when I could have learned so much more from you. What was I thinking?
I clearly need to put less emphasis on evidence and more on whatever enlightenment you have to offer.
Again, do you see the inflationary boom being clouded over by covid or don’t you???? This isn’t 2009, far from it based on credit expansion.
Rage, as i have noted previously, you provide absolutely no evidence for your claims. None. Its almost like listening to baby trump-fact free, opinion full.
Good to see you winning yet again.
If only we imitated you down under
Almost 3000 new infections reported in Washington state today. This will be a long winter of hiding out.
November 25, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 13,137,962)
Deaths ( 268,219)
India
Cases ( 9,266,697)
Deaths ( 135,261)
France
Cases ( 2,170,097)
Deaths ( 50,618)
UK
Cases ( 1,557,007)
Deaths ( 56,533)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,060,152)
Deaths ( 102,739)
Germany
Cases ( 983,731)
Deaths ( 15,381)
Canada
Cases ( 347,466)
Deaths ( 11,710)
China
Cases ( 86,469)
Deaths ( 4,634)
November 25, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 831)
US ( 808)
Mexico ( 794)
France ( 775)
Canada ( 309)
Germany ( 183)
India ( 98)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.7%, 3.6% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-26/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-VIY3uuSJCE/index.html
November 26, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 21 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland registered 21 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, including 9 domestic infections in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the National Health Commission announced on Thursday.
A total of 5 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 321 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Wednesday, and 20 patients were discharged from hospitals.
As of Wednesday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,490, with 4,634 fatalities.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-26/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-VIY3uuSJCE/img/8ab7f0226eb94deba07d0c5b09b3dea1/8ab7f0226eb94deba07d0c5b09b3dea1.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-26/Chinese-mainland-reports-21-new-COVID-19-cases-VIY3uuSJCE/img/2b7e90b00635448f8178fd24b3f640d9/2b7e90b00635448f8178fd24b3f640d9.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having ended completely. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are also checked. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 306 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 7 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
November 25, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 1,373)
Spain ( 942)
Italy ( 861)
UK ( 831)
US ( 808)
Mexico ( 794)
France ( 775)
Sweden ( 642)
Netherlands ( 531)
Switzerland ( 506)
Luxembourg ( 457)
Ireland ( 410)
Portugal ( 405)
Canada ( 309)
Austria ( 295)
Germany ( 183)
Greece ( 183)
Denmark ( 138)
India ( 98)
Finland ( 69)
Norway ( 58)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 16)
Korea ( 10)
China ( 3)
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 19 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries. Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.
November 25, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 808) *
Brazil ( 801)
Argentina ( 831)
Colombia ( 702)
Mexico ( 794)
Peru ( 1,078)
Chile ( 789)
Ecuador ( 749)
Bolivia ( 761)
* Descending number of cases
Menzie, irrespective of pgl’s snarky use of my name, I’m offering up this from your counterpart at Johns Hopkins University:
https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
Bruce M Hall: No disrespect to Ms. Gu, but why is a sophomore at JHU writing in a student newsletter, my “counterpart”?
Apparently, the rather garbled article means to report that an academic has found a way to chop excess death data up (in heart disease, repiratory failure…) and paste the data back together in a way that loses track of the excess.
A link to the actual report might have made things clearer. I’ll hunt.
Note that the study used data through mid September. Please hunt for a calendar for Brucie as he does not know it is Thanksgiving!
Repeating a nonsequitor doesn’t change the fact that it’s a nonsequitor. You made assertions that you apparently can’t support with evidence. Credit is hard to come by for a significant share of businesses. Claims convey real information. Now your argument has changed to “look over there!” Put up or shut up.
Sorry repeat of a comment elsewhere.
The only record I can find of what is reported in the school newspaper is a webinar. The tone of the webinar suggests it was aimed at undergrads who need to see how to find data and manipulate it. I have not found an actual published study. There may be one, but I can’t find it.
Everything else coming out of Johns Hopkins finds high and rising excess deaths, infections and hospitalizations. This is just one more case of Brucey tossing dust in the air. He’s willing for more people to die to keep the right-wing lie going.
In Bruce Hall’s basement – all Asians look the same I guess. Never mind the Vietnamese never exactly got along with their neighbors. Then again Bruce Hall must still believe our involvement with the struggles between North and South Vietnam was spreading democracy. History was never Bruce’s strong point.
Menzie, perhaps there is pressure to suppress any information that does not conform to the COVID-19 money funneling system. I’m sure any economics academician worth their credentials has contacts to obtain the original analysis from Dr. Briand and then refute the data and statistics with no great amount of effort, unless the original analysis is correct.
The student newsletter was forced to retract the article because “our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.”
They did provide a link to the original article: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Md5h1_farrLKoBDZzJ56YGbDFVXZRqXT/view. However, they did not provide a link to the original analysis.
HOWEVER, if you have some intellectual curiosity about her presentation, it can be accessed, in full, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKJN61aflI
Bruce M Hall: Yes, and the Puerto Rico toll from Hurricane Maria is still 64. ( https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/06/estimates-of-excess-fatalities-in-puerto-rico-post-maria ) “Excess deaths” – what a crazy idea!
Bruce Hall I watched about half of her video and gave up in disgust. If she were one of my old students I would have flunked her. First, each week is constrained to 100%, so obviously if one age group sees a relative increase, then other age groups will see a relative decrease as a share of total deaths. Second, she is blind. The share of deaths in the age group 55-64 quite clearly increased relative to the pre-COVID months. She claimed not to see any difference. All I can say is “look harder.”
When comparing heart attacks in the 2018 peak and the 2020 peak she was not comparing against the same months. She ignored seasonality. Also, the peak in 2018 is unusually high. Why didn’t she compare 2020 heart attacks to 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 or 2019, which were all pretty consistent. The outlier was 2018, but yet that’s the one she used as her baseline for comparing 2020…and she was using different months at that. Just horrible statistics. Wait. It really isn’t statistics. It’s just dumping data to an Excel spreadsheet and creating pictures for an ocular analysis. Not exactly professional.
And her overall message seemed confused. Her own graphs show COVID deaths are uneven across time. You can easily see the effects of lockdowns and other public policy measures. Some of the groups fawning over this video take her “analysis” as an argument against the need for restrictions. Huh? That’s the wrong counterfactual. The correct counterfactual would be to ask what deaths would look like in the absence of an aggressive public policy campaign. What needs to be explained are the waves in the data, not the percentage share of deaths by age group. She also ignores the fact that COVID deaths are not homogenously distributed across time and place. She should have looked at NYC deaths in April 2020 alongside April from other years. And then moved to different zip codes as the virus spread across the country. This is a really crappy analysis. Like I said, I would have flunked her.
Why do you continually fall for what is obviously bad analysis? I get the sense that you just hunt around the web for crazy stuff that you think confirms with your priors and then you just post it without ever actually understanding what’s going on.
Hey – at least she knows how to use Powerpoint. I started to watch this webinar but gave up early on as it was clear that it was another waste of an hour. But this is the standard fare for what Bruce Hall brings us.
“I get the sense that you just hunt around the web for crazy stuff that you think confirms with your priors and then you just post it without ever actually understanding what’s going on.”
Exactly right. I have been saying this for the entire year. Thanks for stating it so plainly. Crazy stuff that Bruce posts before he even bothers to even read it through.
‘The student newsletter was forced to retract the article because “our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.”’
Is this why you wasted our time with what is clearly a misleading piece of intellectual garbage. Just about everything you post here fits in that category. And you take pride in this nonsense? Very weird.
Menzie, this may explain why Dr. Briand came to her conclusions: https://youtu.be/Tw9Ci2PZKZg (a short excerpt of a longer presentation)
Ngozi Ezike not Briand. April 27? Do you ever check little details such as WHEN this was recorded. The case definition is “simplistic”? Sort of like every thing you write – simplistic.
WOW, Bruce Hall has made some doozies, but that one was really bad. How does one even miss the large title line to the video??
Maybe Bruce Hall needs a quad bypass, seems to be some blockage in blood flow to his brain (which I could have diagnosed CoRev with about 2 years ago). The chin-diaper is not helping brain function. I think maybe the problem with sammy, Bruce Hall, CoRev, Ed Hanson, Kopits, and Rick Stryker is they may be using middle aged illiterate football coaches as their personally chosen archetype on how to wear a mask:
https://twitter.com/StevensonFWST/status/1322687249620914178
We’ve talked on here a few times that just because one doesn’t have their PhD doesn’t mean they are a complete dunce, and also that just because a person has a PhD, doesn’t mean they are completely reliable. Something I think Menzie has been very agreeable that, that happens on rare occasion. One is left wondering how Genevieve Briand got her distinguished title, as well as how JHU allowed Briand to give this very vacuous talk, with no less than the JHU banner being flown in the background as she gave it, which I might argue would have gotten her a failing grade at a small mediocre accredited university if she had used it as a term paper for class credits in attainment of a Bachelor’s degree—never mind a Master’s….. or PhD. I could go on on my thoughts about certain others who have their PhD in the comment section of this blog, but……..
Not beneficial to JHU’s reputation I don’t think.
Brucie – we know you flunked preK reading so let us help you out with what Ms Gu found:
‘From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million’
Maybe your calendar is dumber than you are but we are over 2 months past the end of her data set. And over the past few weeks another 0.8 million Americans have died of this virus. And that death count may be growing.
Come on Brucie – even you cannot be THIS stupid. Or can you?
“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.
If that theory were correct, then presumably the results could be replicated across all countries, unless you somehow believe the virus treats Americans as exceptional. If you believe that, then I’ve got some fraudulent votes to sell you.
Did you read Ms. Gu’s last sentence? I bet Bruce Hall did not as she is contradicting his pathetically stupid advice.
In less than 8 weeks Kelly Anne Conway will be escorted out of the White House which means Bruce Hall will need a new job and I have the perfect one for him. The Osama bin Laden foundation needs a speech writing. Bruce can tally up the number of US deaths over the last twenty years and show us that 3000 deaths in my city on 9/11/2001 were no big deal. Of course Bruce will be well advised never to visit my city and this of BS will not sit well with the average New Yorker.
But go for it Brucie as you have to pay the rent somehow.
Yanni Gu has written quite a bit this virus including this must read. She is so right so why did her fan Bruce Hall not share this with us. Oh wait Kelly Anne Conway knows her boss was stirring up these disgustingly racist attitudes. And since Bruce Hall carries their water – he could not share with us this thoughtful essay.
The coronavirus is not an excuse for sinophobia – The Johns Hopkins News-Letter (jhunewsletter.com)
The coronavirus is not an excuse for sinophobia
The coronavirus has ignited many social and political issues. Racist discrimination and harassment have been observed around the globe, including in the United States.
On Feb. 1, a 23-year-old Chinese citizen in Berlin was beaten following racial harassment. On Feb. 16, a 24-year-old tax consultant with Thai heritage was verbally abused, robbed and assaulted in broad daylight after the assailants reportedly yelled “corona.” In the U.S., similar hate crimes have also occurred.
In a New York City subway station, an Asian woman wearing a face mask was physically attacked after being called a “diseased bitch.” A 16-year-old boy in California was bullied by his schoolmates after being accused of having the coronavirus, due to his Asian heritage.
The University of California at Berkeley, in its response to the coronavirus outbreak, claimed that “xenophobia” is a “normal” and “common” reaction to the coronavirus. The hate crimes are only accumulating and becoming more severe as the outbreak persists to transmit and infect people around the world.
The xenophobic reactions are not appearing out of thin air. This prejudice is a phenomenon known as sinophobia, which is discrimination against people of Chinese heritage.
In an interview with Vox, Professor Merlin Chowkwanyun of Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health explained how throughout history, communicable illnesses have often been associated with minority or foreign groups.
“Historically, in both popular and scientific discourse, contagious disease has often been linked, in a blanket way, to population groups thought to be ‘outsiders,’” he said.
Vox explained that China, as the most populated country in the world, is often naturally thought of by the Western cultures as a place of dirtiness, barbarism and backwardness.
Wendy Xie, a Hopkins alum from the class of 2019 who is originally from China, shared her personal experience of watching the coronavirus outbreak unfold in an interview with The News-Letter.
“We are victims too. We are suffering. Why are people blaming the Chinese for the coronavirus?” Xie said.
Xie was critical of the way Western media has reported the transmission occurring in China, as well as around the globe. The number of infected cases is simply a numerical count and nothing more; real patients and real lives are accounted as “death tolls” and a detached report of cases.
“The Western media is doing nothing to humanize the Chinese people. There is nothing letting us know what’s really happening in Wuhan,” Xie said.
In the meantime, on social media posts that show doctors in China traveling to Wuhan in an effort to help amend the lack of medical staff and supplies, there are regularly multiple comments suggesting that this is propaganda staged by the central government.
Xie herself has observed this phenomenon on some major Western social media sites, especially Facebook. With frustration, she indicated her belief that there is no need to make everything a political means to attack.
“These are doctors, and they are just doing their jobs,” Xie said.
As a future medical student, Xie expressed that the action of going into Wuhan to help is part of the basic morals of any practicing doctor. Saving lives and helping others are the reasons why people choose medicine as their career, she asserted.
Zora Liu, a senior from China, also shared her struggles coming back to the U.S. during the coronavirus outbreak.
Due to worries for her family and friends back in China, as well as the general worsening outbreak, Liu noted suffering depressed emotions and a drastic decrease in her desire to maintain a healthy social life.
Like many other Chinese students, Liu also started wearing masks to class in order to both protect herself as well as other students. She notes the difference between wearing masks in China versus in the U.S.
“Honestly wearing masks in another country is a lot of pressure. On the one hand it is a form of protection, but on the other hand, wearing masks is like putting on a ‘danger’ sign which forms an invisible barrier around us,” Liu said.
When asked what could be done to address sinophobic sentiment, Xie suggested that the Western media could focus more on the human aspect of this outbreak, rather than simply counting death tolls and numbers infected from a macro-perspective.
Xie expressed her view that the world needs to see what is really going on in China, especially in the city of Wuhan, where doctors are putting patients’ lives above staying safe with their own family, and where patients are alone and homeless because the medical resources have maxed out and they want to prevent their family from becoming infected.
Like Xie, Chinese people around the world want the media to shine light on a new perspective, and for the world to regard Chinese people as victims of this ferocious outbreak, not perpetrators.
“I’m just really frustrated. None of us meant for this to happen,” Xie said.
Fortunately, Xie has not experienced any discriminatory actions or words at Hopkins. However, it is the wish of the entire Chinese student community for the Hopkins administration to not only address issues occurring on the physical health level, but also that from the sinophobic sentiments all over the world.
“For a lot of us, the damage is the microaggressions we experience in everyday life,” Xie said.
Nobody can prevent the occurrence of disaster, but it is how we react to it that matters. During this critical time, it is important for the Hopkins community to support and care for each other. We should create an inclusive and safe environment in the face of adversity and trouble.
When all of the medical profession says covid is responsible for excess deaths, why do you only listen to nonmedical folks with creepy blogs to gain your information? Strange, bruce.
That is because Brucie boy is taking orders from Kelly Anne Conway. Of course one would think they would be spending their remaining days in the White House cooking up evidence of voter fraud. John Lott is on the job but he needs all the help he can get.
The fact that a lot of hospitals are severely overburdened is going to become much more visible in the “excess death” numbers. Doctors and nurses who have been worn down by this will make a lot more mistakes – or just not have the energy for another push to save a person (regardless of whether its Covid, traffic accident or hearth attack). At current record levels of hospitalizations (and with GOP abandoning our health care troops) the lack of resources (physical and mental) will begin to increase the excess death rates in all kinds of categories. STAY HEALTHY Y’ALL.
This is kind of interesting. I have suspected something very similar is going on with Oklahoma’s Covid-19 numbers. We are on our 3rd “Head” state epidemiologist and there have been others who quit their jobs in the OSDH hierarchy, sometimes resigning on the exact same day:
https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2020/12/07/agents-raid-home-fired-florida-data-scientist-who-built-covid-19-dashboard-rebekah-jones/6482817002/
this is an embarrassment. republicans like desantis are acting like dictators in a third world nation. who sends in a swat team to recover computer files? seriously? of all the drug running that goes through florida, we use swat on this family? point guns at children. rick stryker would be proud.
as a side note, it appears the communication system was unsecured. the same user name and password is used by ALL users. desantis should be held liable for this breech of security. it is incompetence at its best. i hope that biden sends in federal investigators to look into these issues in florida.
Appointed by our Republican Governor. Notice the words on her shirt, with Army camouflage background.
https://oklahomawatch.org/2020/12/07/stitt-rescinds-education-board-pick-who-spread-misinformation/
After rescinding her appointment the Republican Governor also took the extra effort to insult public school teachers and labor unions.