Treasury Borrowing Rates – Nominal and Real

Rising government debt-to-GDP ratios should be viewed in the context of borrowing costs. Below, three-and-a-half decades of ten year Treasury yields.

Figure 1: Nominal ten year constant maturity Treasury yields (black line), CBO projection (green line), WSJ November survey mean yields (orange +), TIPS ten year constant maturity yields (red line), ten year expected inflation adjusted (real) yields (lavender x). Inflation adjustment using Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) median survey response for 10 year CPI inflation. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, CBO (July), SPF, and author’s calculations.

The WSJ forecast implies rising nominal Treasury yields. A cautionary note about interest rate forecasts is provided by the following figure, depicting the actual Treasury ten year yield, and the SPF forecasts at several junctures.

Figure 2: Professional Forecasters’ Projections. Source: Figure 3 from Kirby, Barry, “Diminishing Returns: The Incredible Shrinking Bond Yield,” CapTrust, October 24, 2019.  

In other words, we’ve been expecting a reversion to (earlier) mean too often over the past two decades.

120 thoughts on “Treasury Borrowing Rates – Nominal and Real

  1. Steven Kopits

    It looks like yield expectations have been wrong almost without exception. Realized rates have consistently come in below forecast, which tells us the macroeconomics community is using the wrong paradigms. It would be interesting to do an error analysis on this, Menzie. What was the average error at the time frame of, say, 6 months, one year and three years? (Pretty easy to do if you have the data underpinning the graph.) Why the error?

    It’s interesting to contemplate the relationship of interest rates to ideology and the median voter boundary. Are social attitudes going to be the same in a world of fast GDP and population growth with many young people as it will in a world of low GDP growth and an old and declining population? Will the last, say, 140 years (from Marx) prove a historical blip? Does slow growth lead to a concentration of economic and political power where the focus is on maintaining social and economic status rather than growing the pie or seeking a standard of living higher than one’s parents’?

    Reply
    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Steven Kopits: I don’t “have the data”, as the graph is from CapTrust (indicated in legend to figure). I’d have to go back to every SPF survey over past 20 years, and enter in the forecasts, and I don’t have a RA to do help me out for blog-related material.

      Suggest you see video of Ken Rogoff’s 2019 UW presentation. In any case, the graph is a pretty spectacular repudiation of the full-information rational expectations view of the world.

      Reply
      1. Barkley Rosser

        Menzie,

        Yes it is. That is quite a stunning figure with so many consistently wrong forecasts having been made over such a long period.

        Reply
      2. Moses Herzog

        I guess I am not the first person to make this dipshit style observation or “commentary”, but honest to God, Menzie, you know how I am and you know I “can’t resist”. Do we need any more proof that human beings do not act in rational ways (“rational expectations theory”) than to see an electoral college majority (“45% popular vote” which ever way you prefer to express it) voted for donald trump to have the most important job in the world?? You certainly do not have to be a Hersh Shefrin. Amos Tversky, Meir Statman, Richard Thaler “fan” for that one to “register” mentally do we?? You don’t even have to be a Judeo-phile freakboy like me. What were we batting there on those last names?? I think at least .750 there.

        PLease clear this one onto the blog Menzie, but any after this today please filter, I’m about to get sauced.

        Reply
      3. Steven Kopits

        Yeah, ok. If you have the data, the differencing is pretty trivial. If you don’t have the data, well, either you have a Bloomberg terminal or it’s not trivial.

        Reply
        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Steven Kopits: You can download the data from the Philadelphia Fed, but the issue is the person-hours to input the data in a way to analyze the data. Only 24 hours in a day. But I’m sure somebody’s done it already, although maybe not for SPF.

          Reply
      4. Steven Kopits

        I read Rogoff’s presentation, but not clear to me how it applies in this case.

        I think it’s pretty clear that interest rates have to do with demographics, and demographics may have to do with the underlying growth potential in the economy.

        I’d also note there is absolutely nothing in the data which would support fiscal responsibility given political realities. Borrow til you drop, that’s what capital markets are saying to the Treasury.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          His paper mentioned ultralow interest rates and even negative interest rates many times. But I guessed someone fixated with ‘demographics’ would not have noticed as you likely did a search for your pet term and it never came up.

          Reply
      5. macroduck

        The paradigm problem can exist in two basic forms. Either inflation expectations or term premium expectations were persistently too high. Cost of carry (funds) expectations fall out from the other two. In this particular view, I would not use TIPS as an inflation expectations estimate because I don’t think TIPS yields differentiate between term premium and inflation expectations.

        My recollection is that inflation expectations as revealed in surveys have mostly been higher than realized inflation since the late 1980s, so the inflation paradigm has been wrong.

        It has long (always?) been axiomatic that investors demand a premium for tying up cash over longer periods, which has also proven to be a shakey paradigm. Over the entire period represented in the CapTrust chart, term premium has been falling on trend: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/THREEFYTP10 . One can easily think of reasons this would happen, but those reasons were apparently not give much weight by professional forecasters.

        The questions now facing interest rate forecasters are whether inflation (expectations) and term premium (expectations) will rise in the forecast period. History says “yes” only if the economic outlook improves. That would amount to a cyclical rise. I’m not convinced professional forecasters have the wisdom to comment reliably on secular trends in the factors underlying interest rate determination, so I have little faith in longer-term rate forecasts.

        Reply
        1. macroduck

          By the way, Menzie, thanks for posting the CapTrust chart. It fits my recollection, both of history and of similar charts published over the years. Nice to know I wasn’t imagining things.

          Reply
    1. pgl

      Why do you keep babbling incoherent gibberish? Since the vaccine was announced interest rates have increased by less than 0.1%.

      Please stop with these insultingly stupid rants.

      Reply
      1. The Rage

        Dude, give it up. The news didn’t cause a larger swing because it’s down the road and the pandemic lives on. Just a lazy poster.

        Reply
  2. pgl

    “The WSJ forecast implies rising nominal Treasury yields.”

    Let’s say this forecast turns out to be correct and let’s also assume expected inflation does not change. Then their forecast would put the real interest rate zt zero at the end of the forecast period.

    Reply
  3. ltr

    November 12, 2020

    Coronavirus

    Massachusetts

    Cases   ( 180,189)
    Deaths   ( 10,242)

    Deaths per million   ( 1,486)

    ————————————

    Coronavirus

    New York

    Cases   ( 582,912)
    Deaths   ( 33,926)

    Deaths per million   ( 1,744)

    Reply
  4. ltr

    November 12, 2020

    Germany

    Cases   ( 749,638)
    Deaths   ( 12,276)

    Deaths per million   ( 146)

    ————————————

    Coronavirus

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,290,195)
    Deaths   ( 50,928)

    Deaths per million   ( 749)

    Reply
  5. baffling

    in 2016 trump won the electoral college with 306 votes, in what he called a “LANDSLIDE”. is 306 votes in the electoral college still considered a “LANDSLIDE”, or have the trump followers changed their definitions once again? i am talking about you, dick stryker.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Trump will be serving a 2nd term in the minds of a few deranged right wing trolls. Actually do not be surprised if Trump moves to Moscow.

      Reply
      1. baffling

        trump has but one option. he must resign and receive a pardon from pence. otherwise he goes to federal prison. he may have the ability to negotiate a state trial, but he will not be able to wiggle out of the fraud committed at the federal level. taxes for starters.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Pardon by either himself or Pence or even Biden will not save him from prosecution by state and local govts, and that is coming, indeed, is already going on in New York. They’ve got his financial records now.

          Reply
      2. Dr. Dysmalist

        I would LOVE for that to happen! If it does, I eagerly await the verbal manifestations of the fatal levels of cognitive dissonance that it causes as MAGAmorons try to normalize it. I also anticipate a large increase in myocardial infarctions and strokes in MAGAland, duration of said exogenous shock indeterminate.

        Reply
    2. pgl

      Trump trailed Clinton in 2016 by 3 million but yea he got 306 in EC votes. This time Biden led by 5 million and got 306 in EC votes. Sammy and Bruce Hall are working on their Excel model to show that a 5 million vote lead is statistically insignificant. This should revive sales for that 1954 classic Lying with Statistics.

      Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          baffling,

          I do not know what you mean that you “don’t believe in faithless electors.” If this means you think you do not believe the exist, they most certainly do. Go check the record: there were 7 in 2016, and we have seen them popping up on a regular basis, always in inconsequentially small numbers, for a long time.

          Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Ha! Actually Trump was supposed to get 306, but it in the end it was 304 because of faitlhless electors. And while Clinton was supposed to get 232 she only got 227. That’s right: there were 7 faithless electors, 2 who did not vote for Trump and 5 who did not for Clinton.

          Reply
  6. Moses Herzog

    Menzie says: “we’ve been expecting a reversion to (earlier) mean too often over the past two decades.”

    Does this remind you at all about the ECB’s inflation calls/predictions over the last few years, which Ashoka Modi has pointed us to?? This isn’t intended to be smart-alecky towards any points Menzie is making here, just trying to draw an analogy related to false expectations.

    Reply
  7. pgl

    Alabama has sent former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville to the US Senate. What could to wrong:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/incoming-gop-senator-doesnt-seem-to-have-a-full-grasp-on-basics-of-u-s-govt-and-history

    “You know, our government wasn’t set up for one group to have all three of branches of government. It wasn’t set up that way, our three branches, the House, the Senate and executive,” the senator-elect said, apparently unaware that the House and Senate form one legislative branch and omitting the judicial branch altogether. Additionally, he incorrectly asserted that Al Gore was president-elect for 30 days in 2000.

    Those weren’t the only, uh, flubs: Tuberville also indicated that he didn’t understand what World War II was about. “My dad fought 76 years ago in Europe to free Europe of socialism,” he told the Daily News (it was fascism, not socialism). That wasn’t even the first time the incoming lawmaker had misidentified the basis for U.S. involvement in World War II: During his victory speech on election night, Tuberville told supporters his father was “liberating Paris from socialism and communism” during the war.

    The sad thing is – he is likely not the stupidest GOP member of Congress. But damn!

    Reply
    1. Dr. Dysmalist

      Wow!!! I think Tuberville has immediately jumped into serious contention for Stupidest Senator (current) with Wisconsin’s own Ron Johnson (the consensus ‘champ’ for this title on another blog I read regularly) and Moses’s favorite Senator James Inhofe, but also for Stupidest Officeholder on Capitol Hill’ with Louie Gohmert. It’s a very competitive contest.

      Reply
      1. Willie

        They called themselves “National Socialist” party. Really dumb, ignorant ideologues cannot get past the s word in the party name.

        Reply
        1. noneconomist

          There’s definitely a Palinesque hue to Tuberville.
          Of course, the southern civil rights movements of the 50’s and 60’s were “communist inspired” in the minds of a majority of white southerners, with that belief predominating in Alabama and Mississippi.
          Doubtful Tuberville ever read—or can even pronounce—Mein Kampf. Or that Hitler refused to allow elected socialists and communists to take their elected seats in government.

          Reply
          1. The Rage

            Incorrect. Hitler allowed every Nazi supporting socialist to take his seat. You do understand that don’t you??? The Nazi party was the only party. Social Democracy started calling them “right wing” to blunt cover that the Nazi movement branched off of SD.

          2. noneconomist

            When the alternatives are likelihood of suffering bodily harm, prison, maybe even death, certain members would likely change their votes. There had already been mass detentions and arrests of Social Democrats and communists, especially after the Reichstag fire.
            And, of course, there was a decree issued July 14, 1934:
            “The National Socialist German Workers Party constitutes the only political party in Germany. Whoever undertakes to maintain the organizational structure of another political party…will be punished with penal servitude of up to three years or with imprisonment of up to three years…”

  8. joseph

    The errors in the SPF forecasts are not random. They are almost always up.

    My new job is interest rate forecaster. I just take the SPF forecast and subtract 1%. I’m a genius.

    How do these forecasters still have jobs? Who is paying them to be consistently wrong?

    And these are not just innocent mistakes. They are politically motivated. These overly optimistic errors are why the Fed has been always suppressing employment and wage growth for the last 40 years.

    Reply
  9. ltr

    November 13, 2020

    Denmark

    Cases   ( 60,000)
    Deaths   ( 756)

    Deaths per million   ( 130)

    ————————————

    Coronavirus

    Sweden

    Cases   ( 177,355)
    Deaths   ( 6,164)

    Deaths per million   ( 609)

    Reply
  10. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 6 of the 17 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.  Mexico has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries.

    November 12, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 749) *

    Brazil   ( 771)
    Argentina   ( 767)
    Colombia   ( 656)

    Mexico   ( 745)
    Peru   ( 1,058)
    Chile   ( 767)

    * Descending number of cases

    Reply
  11. Moses Herzog

    I was trying to imagine Mainland Chinese watching this video and what they would think. [ ??? ] If they watched it they wouldn’t probably “think too much about it”. I can’t really say in good conscience that it’s a great tribute. BUT…….. on a personal level I think it’s pretty great music. And it’s a greater tribute than most Mainland Chinese would perceive it as, because heavy metal is a deep part and an important part of American culture:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ODNxy3YOPU

    Reply
  12. SecondLook

    Seems we have a case of too much money chasing too many goods…

    On a more salient note: why is the Treasury not issuing 50 year bonds in this environment?
    Seriously, I can’t quite work out the counter logic.
    Mind, I can understand why corporations don’t seriously buyback stock when the price is depressed as opposed to the contrary – that has to do with how executive stock options are structured. But why the United States doesn’t lock in incredibly cheap rates?

    Reply
    1. baffling

      because current elected officials are really not too concerned with how to deal with a budget even 10 years from now. that is somebody else’s problem.

      Reply
      1. SecondLook

        Hmm, on reflection, I think it’s more likely due to unelected entities. Think on it, issuing longer term bonds reduces the activity of the markets – and that affects the bottom line of the huge primary dealers (basically every heavyweight financial firm). What they want is as much turnover as possible, it’s an intergral part of how they do business.

        Reply
    2. Willie

      You would think that issuing trillions worth of bonds at negative real rates would be a no-brainer. Renovate a whole lot of infrastructure so that the economy is healthy and we don’t have to do the work when money is expensive. What am I missing?

      Reply
      1. macroduck

        Treasury consults with fixed income market participants, mostly on the sell-side, one each quarter to assess market demand for bills, notes and bonds. The question of 50s and (I think?) centuries has come up repeatedly. There is demand, but on such a limited scale that the overall cost of Treasury funding would not be much affected.

        If Treasury were to put the interest of tax-payers ahead of primary dealers, 50s and centuries might be added to the curve.

        Reply
        1. macroduck

          Sorry. This is a response to a comment by Second Look.

          Interest rate reset is the big risk and should be taken into account. That risk should not be exaggerated. It could be mitigated by issuing longer maturities.

          Reply
    3. macroduck

      Treasury consults with fixed income market participants, mostly on the sell-side, one each quarter to assess market demand for bills, notes and bonds. The question of 50s and (I think?) centuries has come up repeatedly. There is demand, but on such a limited scale that the overall cost of Treasury funding would not be much affected.

      If Treasury were to put the interest of tax-payers ahead of primary dealers, 50s and centuries might be added to the curve.

      Reply
      1. SecondLook

        Quite so. It’s amusing that in the corporate market 40 year bonds are out there – most notably Microsoft’s.
        Japan has done well rountinely issuing its 40 year paper.
        Unless one assumes that inflation shall be perpetually low, very long term bonds issuance should be net positive on cost.

        When it comes to the decision making cadre at Treasury, well… Look at where they go after they leave public service. Regardless of Administration.

        Reply
      2. Willie

        There is a secondary market, so the traders can always get some cut of the action. 50s and century bonds make perfect sense now. If the demand collapses, do not sell them. This seems way too straight forward for there not to be a hitch.

        Reply
  13. Moses Herzog

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YT1zNuUpMFw

    This is one of my very favorite songs Menzie. It stands for some song of a girl you liked very much, but never could quite talk to her. right??

    That’sa different song from the girl I loved named Wu Qiong, some girl from grade school. Wu Quiong is the girl I “lost” but Mary I pined for in grade scholl/

    Reply
  14. Moses Herzog

    That’s why I got angry at Junior, He had no right to take it as a personal comment—and if you went back that forth you’d see why I was extremely angry at him. He had no right, to “go there” that was an extreme “out of bounds” place Rosser went to

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      You announced earlier that you were going to “get sauced,” and I do not know if you are or not. But, seriously, “Nephew” Moses (I have a real nephew who is much better person than you appear to be, so you are the “bad” nephew, if you are one), I have no idea what you are talking about here, and I am reasonably certain that nobody else who might be reading this does either. Get some rest. It has been a long and stressful week.

      Reply
  15. Moses Herzog

    “I fight for my meals” “I give my back into my living” “I don’t need to fight….. to prove I’m right” “I don’t need to be forgiven,,,,,,,,

    Don’t cry…it’s only teenage waistland…..

    Reply
  16. ltr

    Menzie Chinn:

    In other words, we’ve been expecting a reversion to (earlier) mean too often over the past two decades.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/a-fiscal-train-wreck.html

    March 11, 2003

    A Fiscal Train Wreck
    By Paul Krugman

    With war looming, it’s time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage. It means higher monthly payments, but I’m terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits.

    From a fiscal point of view the impending war is a lose-lose proposition. If it goes badly, the resulting mess will be a disaster for the budget. If it goes well, administration officials have made it clear that they will use any bump in the polls to ram through more big tax cuts, which will also be a disaster for the budget. Either way, the tide of red ink will keep on rising.

    Last week the Congressional Budget Office marked down its estimates yet again. Just two years ago, you may remember, the C.B.O. was projecting a 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion. Now it projects a 10-year deficit of $1.8 trillion.

    And that’s way too optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office operates under ground rules that force it to wear rose-colored lenses. If you take into account — as the C.B.O. cannot — the effects of likely changes in the alternative minimum tax, include realistic estimates of future spending and allow for the cost of war and reconstruction, it’s clear that the 10-year deficit will be at least $3 trillion.

    So what? Two years ago the administration promised to run large surpluses. A year ago it said the deficit was only temporary. Now it says deficits don’t matter. But we’re looking at a fiscal crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high.

    A leading economist recently summed up one reason why: “When the government reduces saving by running a budget deficit, the interest rate rises.” Yes, that’s from a textbook by the chief administration economist, Gregory Mankiw.

    But what’s really scary — what makes a fixed-rate mortgage seem like such a good idea — is the looming threat to the federal government’s solvency….

    Reply
  17. ltr

    As for the spread of the coronavirus in the United States just now, I am trying to think clearly about meanings but I find what is happening chilling.

    Reply
  18. MOses Herzog

    These “wild guys”slept at my granfather’s farm, kinda like this example quale hunting
    there will be blood

    Reply
  19. Moses Herzog

    Menzie, whatever or you, or Rosser felt on these points, I attempted to be fair on these points. But that one htere felt was a seinsitive one., I feel you both knew what that point was. And it won’t be left alone. That’s my feeling on it. And I attempted to be fair on that. I feel I”ve gone abobve boardon that point. it’s diifficult o be objective on some points.

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      I do not know about Menzie, but I still have no idea what you are talking about. What point or points? Although, frankly, probably best you just let this mystery drop and remain a mystery. You are not making yourself look at all good with all this.

      Reply
  20. Moses Herzog

    Menzie, I won’t ever feel offended you felt I was “the shit”, but I will feel angry if you felt I wasn;t fair on most grounds, wbatever the grounds were

    Reply
    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      General Comment: If you either (1) want your comment posted in any speedy fashion, or (2) value your moderator’s time and blood pressure, please do not post extraneous (i.e., not directly relevant to your point) youtube videos that have to screened.

      Reply
  21. ltr

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    November 13, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 11,064,364)
    Deaths   ( 249,975)

    India

    Cases   ( 8,773,243)
    Deaths   ( 129,225)

    France

    Cases   ( 1,922,504)
    Deaths   ( 43,892)

    UK

    Cases   ( 1,317,496)
    Deaths   ( 51,304)

    Mexico

    Cases   ( 991,835)
    Deaths   ( 97,056)

    Germany

    Cases   ( 772,822)
    Deaths   ( 12,503)

    Canada

    Cases   ( 287,318)
    Deaths   ( 10,828)

    China

    Cases   ( 86,307)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

    Reply
  22. ltr

    November 13, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 754)
    UK   ( 754)
    Mexico   ( 750)
    France   ( 672)

    Canada   ( 286)
    Germany   ( 149)
    India   ( 93)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.8%, 3.9% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.  These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are being rapidly recorded.

    Reply
  23. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-Vp0kgmVxRe/index.html

    November 14, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 18 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland registered 18 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Saturday.

    A total of 10 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, all from overseas, while 648 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19 related deaths were reported on Friday, and 24 patients were discharged from hospitals after recovering.

    As of Friday, the total confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,325, with 4,634 fatalities.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-Vp0kgmVxRe/img/bca09874e4404a6da73daa421dad5e3f/bca09874e4404a6da73daa421dad5e3f.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-18-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-Vp0kgmVxRe/img/34f86d2bdf6c414cb159c3dcf0d6b9b8/34f86d2bdf6c414cb159c3dcf0d6b9b8.jpeg

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  Since June began there have been 5 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending in a few weeks.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 388 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 3 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

    Reply
  24. ltr

    November 13, 2020

    Coronavirus

    US

    Cases   ( 11,064,364)
    Deaths   ( 249,975)

    New Cases   ( 183,527)
    New Deaths   ( 1,395)

    Current Serious, Critical Cases   ( 32,297)

    Reply
  25. ltr

    November 13, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    Belgium   ( 1,197)
    Spain   ( 872)
    US   ( 754)
    UK   ( 754)

    Mexico   ( 750)
    Italy   ( 730)
    France   ( 672)
    Sweden   ( 609)

    Netherlands   ( 487)
    Ireland   ( 398)
    Switzerland   ( 382)
    Luxembourg   ( 348)

    Portugal   ( 319)
    Canada   ( 286)
    Austria   ( 184)
    Germany   ( 149)

    Denmark   ( 130)
    Greece   ( 96)
    India   ( 93)
    Finland   ( 67)

    Norway   ( 54)
    Australia   ( 35)
    Japan   ( 15)
    Korea   ( 10)

    China   ( 3)

    Reply
  26. pgl

    I noted Parler before here is more:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/14/tech/parler-app-conservatives/index.html

    ‘Among tweets containing baseless claims about election results, Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo echoed a rallying cry of many prominent conservative voices in a tweet shortly after Election Day: “I will be leaving [Twitter] soon and going to Parler. Please open an account on @parler right away.”
    Others who’ve been active on the alternative social network Parler in recent weeks include Fox News host Sean Hannity, radio personality Mark Levin, far-right activist Laura Loomer, Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Devin Nunes. Eric Trump also has an account verified by Parler as does Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
    A substantial number of users have followed these voices onto the platform, fueled by complaints over actions major social media platforms have taken against election misinformation and false allegations of voter fraud, such as disputing claims with fact-check labels. Twitter, in particular, took aggressive action on many of President Trump’s tweets during the election. At one point, the social network applied warning labels to more than a third of Trump’s tweets after polls closed. Some of Trump’s tweets were hidden behind a warning label which users had to click through before being able to read what they said.
    Parler, founded in 2018 by John Matze and Jared Thomson, bills itself as “unbiased social media” and a place where people can “speak freely and express yourself openly without fear of being ‘deplatformed’ for your views,” according to its website and App Store description. It looks like a mashup of Twitter and Instagram, with its main feed, follower counts and ways to share posts and links.
    It’s also rife with misinformation, including a stream of baseless allegations of voter fraud, such as false assertions that “millions” of votes were either lost or switched from Donald Trump to Joe Biden.’

    OK – I’m not getting on this social media but it appears to be the perfect place for our Usual Suspects!

    Reply
  27. ltr

    The point of looking to Massachusetts and New York is our failure to be properly protective from the beginning, since there was ample time to be protective in the beginning, and continuing to be properly protective even now. This public health failing needs to be thoroughly examined.

    Reply
  28. joseph

    Well, the sorry Trump administration ends exactly the same way it began, with Trump’s press secretary lying about the size of the crowds. There was a Million MAGA march in DC this morning and Kayleigh McEnany was out there lying for her boss, claiming crowds of over a million. Most estimates are that the actual count was 10,000 to 20,000.

    I’m sure Megapixel Stryker will be along any time now to defend Mein Fuhrer with his megapixel photos proving the claims of a million people.

    Meanwhile, their Dear Leader took a lap around the square in his limousine on his way to the golf course. “Sorry, no time to talk. I’ve got an early tee time.”

    Reply
  29. Barkley Rosser

    Getting back to the nominal topic for this thread, I note that nominal mortgage rates rose 7 basis points in Washington this week, the first such increase in a long time.

    Reply
  30. ltr

    About interest rates and expectations of rates since 2000, the predictive mistake made by Paul Krugman strikes me as most important:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/11/opinion/a-fiscal-train-wreck.html

    https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/27/deficits-the-causes-matter/

    Krugman referred to but never convincingly explained the mistake, but the thinking was widely shared even by Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve and again never convincingly explained. As for the public, since 2000 inflation expectations have often been higher than subsequent inflation and increasingly so from 2007 on:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=t8ci

    January 15, 2018

    Inflation Expectation and Inflation, 2000-2018

    Reply
  31. ltr

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/15/c_139517507.htm

    November 15, 2020

    RCEP free trade deal signed among 15 participating countries

    HANOI — The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was signed among its 15 participating countries Sunday, launching the world’s biggest free trade bloc.

    Participating countries include the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

    The RCEP agreement will accelerate the building of the ASEAN economic community and thereby allow ASEAN to become dynamic and strong partners in promoting cooperation for shared prosperity, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said at the signing ceremony held via video conference.

    The 15 participating countries of the RCEP account for around 30 percent of the global population, global gross domestic product and global trade.

    The signing came after more than 30 rounds of negotiation, which was launched in November 2012, as well as a number of specific leaders and ministerial meetings between the participating countries.

    The ongoing 37th ASEAN Summit and related summits take place from Thursday to Sunday via video conferences.

    Founded in 1967, ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Vietnam is the ASEAN chair for 2020.

    Reply
  32. joseph

    Trump today: “He won because the Election was Rigged. NO VOTE WATCHERS OR OBSERVERS allowed, vote tabulated by a Radical Left privately owned company, Dominion, with a bad reputation & bum equipment that couldn’t even qualify for Texas (which I won by a lot!), the Fake & Silent Media, & more!”

    Can we just all say that Trump is mentally ill. We have a person with a severe mental breakdown running the country. It there just one Republican anywhere who is willing to say we must invoke the 25th Amendment because we have a certifiable crazy person in the White House.

    Reply
  33. ltr

    The signing of the RCEP strikes me as profoundly important in furthering and quickening growth of the developing participants and for sustaining significant growth in the most developed participants:

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-15/RCEP-shows-how-China-is-overcoming-U-S-challenge-on-trade-VqSgxhPYIg/index.html

    November 15, 2020

    RCEP shows how China is overcoming U.S. challenge on trade

    Fifteen nations in the Asia-Pacific are coming together on Sunday to sign the world’s largest trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ending years of negotiations….

    Reply
  34. ltr

    Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 11 and 6 of the 19 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries.  Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile.  Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 11th highest number of cases among all countries.

    November 14, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 757) *

    Brazil   ( 777)
    Argentina   ( 779)
    Colombia   ( 662)

    Mexico   ( 754)
    Peru   ( 1,061)
    Chile   ( 771)

    * Descending number of cases

    Reply

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