DWD data indicates nonfarm payroll employment declines in November, as does private nonfarm employment. Government employment also declines, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services experience diverging fortunes.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from November release (black), forecast from June 2020 Economic Outlook (teal), from November 2020 Economic Outlook (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.
Employment is already undershooting the forecast from early November (discussed in this post). To some extent, this is not surprising as national employment growth has flattened out. Nonetheless, even using the decelerated national employment growth to project out Wisconsin growth, I would have expected about 4,400 more jobs created (as opposed to the 3900 net loss).
Government employment (all levels) continues to decline, illustrating the importance of Federal assistance to state and local governments. State government employment also went down by 2500, while local government went up by 1200.
Figure 2: Wisconsin government employment, all levels (blue), and state and local (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
Finally, the divergent paths for goods producing and high-contact services providing employment is illustrated in figure 3, using manufacturing employment (blue) and accommodation and food services employment (red).
Figure 3: Wisconsin manufacturing employment release (blue), and accommodation and food services employment (red, right log scale), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
“the divergent paths for goods producing and high-contact services providing employment is illustrated in figure 3”
Both fell a lot. High contact services recovered more quickly then goods producing at first. But high contact services employment has flat lined but manufacturing continues to recovery slowly. The Trump promise to bring manufacturing jobs back has failed miserably in Wisconsin.
Menzie’s former co-author Peter Navarro recently wrote the Immaculate Deception report which apparently has proof that Biden stole the election. Did Navarro consult with his Chinese stock guru Ron Vara and of course SAMMY!
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/peter-navarro-puts-out-immaculate-deception-report-rehashing-debunked-trump-complaints
Speaking of Sammy, he informed us that DOI John Ratcliffe was going to be releasing an intel report on Dec. 18 that would really explain what happened with the election and so much else, bur if it was released, well, I have heard nothing about it. Maybe Sammy got Ratcliffe confused with Navarro, although I do not think any intel professionals would put out something so full of completely debunked staff as in the Navarro report.
Harvard’s https://tracktherecovery.org/ records a – 19.6% employment decline for low income workers as of November 19 compared to January. Consumer spending in high income neighborhoods as of December 2 is – 5.2%. Small business revenue in high income neighborhoods as of November 30 is – 38.8%. Shopping by my neighbors or myself is decidedly online, and we think that will continue. This means restructuring employment. Then too, though Paul Krugman argues that employment in this recession can naturally recover in the manner of recessions through the beginning of the 1980s, I think restructuring employment will need to be an express policy objective. or we will repeat the difficult employment experience of the last 3 recessions.
It’s encouraging to see Krugman digging into how unemployment has been distributed: “The economic pain from the coronavirus has been very unevenly distributed: “A minority of the work force has been devastated, while those who have been able to keep working have, by and large, done relatively well.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/opinion/coronavirus-stimulus-deficit.html
All too often policies overwhelmingly benefitting the Usual Suspects are promoted under the trope of false pretense of “helping consumers or workers.”
It’s encouraging to see Krugman digging into how unemployment has been distributed: “The economic pain from the coronavirus has been very unevenly distributed: “A minority of the work force has been devastated, while those who have been able to keep working have, by and large, done relatively well.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/opinion/coronavirus-stimulus-deficit.html
All too often policies overwhelmingly benefitting the Usual Suspects are promoted under the trope of false pretense of “helping consumers or workers.”
Usual Suspects here refer to trolls like CoRev, Sammy, Bruce Hall, and now you. As far as political leaders, Mitch McConnell does not even pretend to care about the average Joe. So your was ?????????????
Apparently pal would prefer that the distribution of unemployment be ignored…just he prefers to ignore groups harmed by “free” trade.
@ JohnH
The latest, from the “good people” over at ZH:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/summary%20of%20proposals.jpg?itok=3VgGx5Si
They have other breakdowns, I’ll let the good reader search them out. ZH would be less reliable on that score, but still worth maybe skimming,
@ John H
This one does a pretty good job (on a broad overview of what is in the bill).
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/20/details-stimulus-package-omnibus-bill-449499
@ John H
No worries. As long as Neera Tanden and Center for American Progress are taking care of the “important people” pgl shares gym equipment with, it’s all good:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/business/50-biggest-companies-coronavirus-layoffs/
I would say you are a child but I don’t want to insult children by comparing them to whiney trolls like you. No moron – I would prefer economic policies that get us back to full employment. Of course know nothings like you have no clue what those policies might be. So continue to hurl your pathetic insults.
JohnH : Did you know Florida recently voted to raise minimum wage to $8.56/hr? That means they trail only 29 other states and D.C. in minimum wage. (Most of those states are blue, headed by brain dead Democrats, as you might say, but Florida, you gotta love ‘em)
Even better, by 2026, Florida’s minimum will be $15. That will be only four years after California gets to $15, but you know those brain dead Democrats out there, right?
Good to see that while others are unconcerned about a proper stimulus, you’re leading the pack in demanding equity and fairness.
What would the world do without idealists who care?
No economist : Yeah, Florida increased the minimum wage with little support from Democrats, who mostly got wiped out. I mean, what’s the point of riding a popular initiative to victory, when you can please your deep pocketed donors and lose? After all, winning is greatly overrated…it means you have to make decisions and all that disgusting nonsense!
JohnH: big reversal for you. You’’ve been agreeing that Republicans almost unanimously oppose minimum wage increases. You’re now saying they spearheaded the Florida increase? Confused are you?
Not to worry. In only six years, they’ll be where other mostly blue states have been for a while. You know, the brain dead ones that don’t care about the little people,those fortunate to have you as their champion.
Idealists. take heart. JohnH may be a bit confused, but he’s here to lead.
Oh gag, JohnH, there you go again misrepresenting what happened in Florida with your Third Party pox on both their houses bs. It certainly can be argued that they could have supported it more strongly with more money and more loudly than they did. But in fact they all did support it, with some of them doing so loudly, while the Republicans all opposed it. Would more money for it and louder support for it helped Dems win some races in Florida they did not? Maybe, but not at all definitely, especially when most reporting of what happened in at least some of the races Dems lost what happened was GOP using Spanish language outlets to spread scary claims that Dems were a bunch socialists about to turn the US into Castro’s Cuba or Maduro’s Venezuela. Oh, pushing on min wage would have overcome that?
An idealist, JohnH, waxing on about polls and popularity? Now you’re confusing yourself. Idealist usually maintain there’s often a difference between what’s right and what may be popular.
Not you though. You proudly wear your idealist populist badge with pride, proud as you are to be walking and chewing gum at the same time.
December 17, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 17,626,770)
Deaths ( 317,928)
India
Cases ( 9,977,834)
Deaths ( 144,829)
France
Cases ( 2,427,316)
Deaths ( 59,619)
UK
Cases ( 1,948,660)
Deaths ( 66,052)
Germany
Cases ( 1,438,438)
Deaths ( 25,165)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,277,499)
Deaths ( 115,769)
Canada
Cases ( 488,638)
Deaths ( 13,916)
China
Cases ( 86,777)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 17, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 971)
US ( 958)
France ( 912)
Mexico ( 894)
Canada ( 367)
Germany ( 300)
India ( 104)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.1%, 3.4% and 2.3% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-Wjuz58Bs5y/index.html
December 18, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 12 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland recorded 12 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, including 11 from overseas and 1 that was locally transmitted, the National Health Commission announced on Friday.
The single local infection was reported in southwest China’s Sichuan Province, health officials said.
Eleven new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 198 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
No COVID-19 deaths were reported on Thursday. Meanwhile, 9 patients were discharged from hospitals. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,789, with 4,634 deaths.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-Wjuz58Bs5y/img/dbf2b56269f94b8eb08824ebdc99994b/dbf2b56269f94b8eb08824ebdc99994b.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-12-new-COVID-19-cases-Wjuz58Bs5y/img/038fd4a350464106860cdff827362623/038fd4a350464106860cdff827362623.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 304 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 8 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
There is seldom a day in which the Trump administration does not direct an economic attack against China. With the passing of the day, comes another Trump directed attack against China, attacks meant to be difficult for the Biden administration to reverse since the onslaught is always accompanied by vilification of China and the fostering of such prejudice is difficult to undo.
Such ferociousness of this administration, in the waning days, is distressing to me.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 13 highest and 6 of the 24 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico, with more than 1 million cases recorded, has the 4th highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the 13th highest number of cases among all countries. Mexico is now the 4th among all countries to have recorded more than 100,000 coronavirus deaths.
December 17, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 958) *
Brazil ( 867)
Argentina ( 915)
Colombia ( 778)
Mexico ( 894)
Peru ( 1,112)
Chile ( 834)
Ecuador ( 784)
Bolivia ( 769)
* Descending number of cases
December 17, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 1,574)
Italy ( 1,113)
Spain ( 1,043)
UK ( 971)
US ( 958)
France ( 912)
Mexico ( 894)
Sweden ( 779)
Switzerland ( 747)
Luxembourg ( 679)
Netherlands ( 602)
Portugal ( 580)
Austria ( 552)
Ireland ( 432)
Greece ( 380)
Canada ( 367)
Germany ( 300)
Denmark ( 171)
India ( 104)
Finland ( 87)
Norway ( 74)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 22)
Korea ( 12)
New Zealand ( 5)
China ( 3)
Folks,
I am going to put out here a conjecture that may well be false. Indeed, as of right now I view the probability of it being true as being somewhere between 5-60%, which means I am now taking it seriously while recognizing the probability it is false is very high. Let me say if that is the case, I apologize. Let me also say, that whether this conjecture is false or not, I respect the intellect behind these persona, and if it is false I feel a personal connection and deeper respect, despite a current hard debate. But if my conjecture is false that personal regard does not extend to the manifestation that appears on this blog.
So, the conjecture is that the following internet identities are one and the same individual. On this blog that persona is “ltr.” On the now defunct Economists View that persona was “anne.” On Angry Bear someone identifying themself as “anne” regularly posts. On Econospeak an individual identifying themself as “Anonymous” posts regularly, often as in the current contretemps making highly simlar posts on both blogs.
So, folks, my conjecture is that “ltr” and “anne”on EV and AB,and “Anonymojus” on Econospeak are one and the same individual. What made me lean to this conjecture, which may well be wrong, is the simila r pattern of posting regularly and overly repeatedly data on certain things, historical GDP growth numbers in the past, but more recently Covid numbers. What really made me sit up was that “anne/Anonymous” was posting essentially identical numbers for quite some time and in a similar way to what “ltr” was poting here.
I shall say no more on this matter now, regarding which I may be wrong. But if I am right, I shall still deal with this individual in the future as I have in the past
ltr and anne are definitely the same person.
Kevin Drum’s COVID19 update even includes information on the shortage of ICU beds in California:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-december-17-update/
For the nations he covers, daily deaths per capita have all jumped. The most alarming is Italy but the US daily death count per capita has increased by a factor of 4. Those who told us that this would continue to decline and it all will “wash away” have been rather silent of late. Of course these trolls will never apologize for their incredibly bad recommendations to ignore this virus.
December 18, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 17,888,353)
Deaths ( 320,845)
India
Cases ( 10,004,825)
Deaths ( 145,171)
France
Cases ( 2,442,990)
Deaths ( 60,229)
UK
Cases ( 1,977,167)
Deaths ( 66,541)
Germany
Cases ( 1,469,991)
Deaths ( 26,003)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,289,298)
Deaths ( 116,487)
Canada
Cases ( 495,346)
Deaths ( 14,040)
China
Cases ( 86,789)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 18, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 978)
US ( 967)
France ( 922)
Mexico ( 899)
Canada ( 370)
Germany ( 310)
India ( 105)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.0%, 3.4% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
ltr,
That high number for Mexico says something not too good about the current political leadership of Mexico, which does not surprise me given how its president did not recognize the victory of Biden in the presidential election until after the electoral college vote, putting him in the same category as Sen. McConnell, V.V. Putin, and J. Bolsonaro, although ahead of Kim J.U and D.J. Trump in doing so, with neither of the latter doing so yet, and with the latter possibly going on to imitate the President of Mexico, who to this day has not accepted his defeat in the 2006 presidential election there despite there having been a recount that covered 10% of the ballots and showed little change. But then it has been reported that both of those individuals get along with each other well for reasons that remain a matter of debate, although I shall not upset anybody here by mentioning some of the things that both of those individuals appear to maybe have in common, as I pointed out more specifically elsewhere, much to criticism of somebody elsewhere.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-19/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-Wlcd7qNjqM/index.html
December 19, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 17 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Friday recorded 17 new COVID-19 cases, 3 locally-transmitted and 14 from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Saturday.
Of the 3 local infections, 2 were reported in Beijing and 1 in northeastern Liaoning Province, health officials said.
Sixteen new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 203 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
No COVID-19 deaths were reported on Friday. Meanwhile, 14 patients were discharged from hospitals. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,806, with 4,634 deaths.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-19/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-Wlcd7qNjqM/img/e45b77161fcd4db990ba2761f4727fba/e45b77161fcd4db990ba2761f4727fba.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-19/Chinese-mainland-reports-17-new-COVID-19-cases-Wlcd7qNjqM/img/7c2db05f707c42ca9f93c1fdf52ea812/7c2db05f707c42ca9f93c1fdf52ea812.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 307 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 7 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
ltr,
I am curious why you never report any results from Taiwan, whose program to prevent coronavirus cases and deaths has been about as successful as that of its neighbor, the PRC. I note that compared to the PRC, Taiwan for the last quarter century has been having its leaders selected in democratic elections, with none of those leaders exhibiting egomaniacal and authoritarian conduct such as refusing to accept election results, as we have seen some other leaders do elsewhere. I also note the Taiwan’s economic performance far outshines that of the PRC on almost any measure, not only real per capita income, but also regarding income inequality, with Taiwan has much great equality than does the PRC or Hong Kong for that matter, which has a higher real per capita income than either Taiwan or the PRC.
Of course, Chiang Kai-Shek was an authoritarian and non-democratic dictator of Taiwan, and interestingly is now disavowed and unpopular with people in both of the two leading political parties in Taiwan.
Again, another day has passed, the Trump administration has continued waging an economic war against China. From the Trump candidacy to the presidency, Trump has fostered an American prejudice against the Chinese that was manifest in the long-lived Chinese Exclusion Act of 1992. Trump built an administration deeply antagonistic to China. Now, no matter the continuing of the economic war against China with repeated new onslaughts there is either agreement or no concern shown. I find the matter distressing.
ltr,
The Chinese Exclusion Act was passed in 1882, not 1992.
Only 110 years off. Of course the son of our President in 1992 thought Pearl Harbor was on Sept. 7, 1941. Maybe he should have asked dad.
Come on Anne – get your history right!
https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/12/delongtoday-fear-of-rising-interest-rates-no-reason-to-shy-away-from-fiscal-expansion.html#more
Brad DeLong says a lot of things I agree with. His latest is a strong case for fiscal stimulus big time, which includes his definition of full employment which dovetails something I wrote over at Angrybear some 14 years ago:
In 2010—when the Obama administration began its pivot to austerity, and greatly downweighted the task of boosting employment back to normal levels and focused on attempting spending cuts and deficit reduction—the prime-age employment-to-population ratio was 75%, 5%-points below what 2007 had attained as full employment without any wage-pressure inflation, and 7%-points below what 2000 had attained as full employment. Yet Obama did not prioritize a return to full employment and a high-pressure economy, and pivoted to austerity nonetheless. In 2013, when Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke announced that the time for extraordinary monetary stimulus was over, and so administered the depressive shock to long-term interest rates called the “taper tantrum”, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio was less than 76%. Yet Ben Bernanke did not prioritize a return to full employment and pivoted back to “normal” monetary policy nonetheless. And in 2015, when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen began the most recent interest rate-raising cycle, plausibly knocking a percentage point or two off of mid-2010s economic growth in an economy that had looked as though it might be gaining recovery speed, the prime-age employment-to-population ratio was only 77%. Not until late in 2019—fully ten years after the nadir of the Great Recession business-cycle trough—would the U.S. economy once again reattain anything we could call “full employment”.
Yes – forget the unemployment rate. Focus on the employment to population ratio. Demographics? OK. employment to population ratio for the 25-54 crowd. If it is below 80%, are below full employment.
This could be really fun – Dominion Voting Systems is suing Trump’s campaign lawyers!
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/19/politics/trump-campaign-sidney-powell-dominion-voting-systems/index.html
Had we just watched and thought about the experience of Israel, proper caution could have been sustained through the summer and fall:
December 19, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 372,886)
Deaths ( 3,074)
Deaths per million ( 334)
———————————–
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Israel
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Here you can read Peter Navarro’s document “The Immaculate Deception: Six Dimensions of Election Irregularities — The Navarro Report”
https://bannonswarroom.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/The-Immaculate-Deception-12.15.20-1.pdf
Six states measured by six criteria. I’m not sure how a 6 x 6 matrix ends up being six dimensions, but then, I’m not an economist. Just be thankful it’s not a quadrillion dimensions.
Economists. Ha!
Thanks for the link as this should be fun reading. But is Navarro really an economist????
Harvard gave him their blessing. UC Irving gave him tenure.
Navarro was a reasonably respectable economist until the mid-90s, even coauthoring a paper with our Menzie Chinn. Somewhere after that he went off the deep end on his super anti-China schtick, which is what brought him to the attention of Trump. He has not published an actual refereed journal article in over 20 years.
So, he was an economist once upon a time, but seems to have left the fold.
As it is, this report is a joke. He claims there have been no investigations and proudly claims court cases as his evidence, but not a single case invoking some sort of fraud was accepted by a court, including in ones with judges appointed by Trump. Some of the things he views as big deals have been publicly refuted, such as the silly business about the supposed extra ballots filmed in Georgai. The Republican Sec of State there has explained what happened there with that, an explanation Navarro dismisses without a shred of a good reason to do so. There really is nothing to this report, despite his matrices and long list of sources.
“it is possible to infer what may well have been a coordinated strategy to effectively stack the election deck against the Trump-Pence ticket.”
Possible to infer? What weasel words. Definitive proof? Actual evidence? NAH! As long as one lying idiot can say “possible to infer”. Case closed. Navarro is truly a nutjob!
“The weight of evidence and patterns of irregularities are such that it is irresponsible for anyone – especially the mainstream media – to claim there is “no evidence” of fraud or irregularities.”
More weasel words and I have not get past page 1. Weight of what evidence? So saying “no evidence” of any irregularities has become the gold standard for outright voter fraud. Navarro is pandering to people with IQs in the single digits.
pgl: “Weight of what evidence?”
It’s only apparent to those of superior intellect capable of visualizing the sixth dimension.
joseph,
I would have thought that you were being sarcastic here, but it seems from your earlier comments on this matter that you are taking this Navarro report seriously, citing that he got his PhD from Harvard as some sort of evidence that he is not just a wacked out lunatic, which he looks like to me and a lot of other people.
So, do you think that this comment about the evidence “only apparent to those of superior intellect capable of visualizing the sixth dimension” somehow supports Navarro’s argument? Are you also a wacked out lunatic?
Sorry, but there is nothing to this, not a damned thing at all. Yes, Navarro has been on TV going on and on about “the six dimensions,” but this is not about thinking in six dimensions. It is just a list of six different things, not at all a big deal. As someone who has seriously thought about thining in five dimensions, which is in fact pretty darned hard, I must assure that thinking about these sic items is not at all like that. One does not have to visualize an actual six dimensional space to do it. This is just s six by xi list that he poses as a matrix, but I hate to tell you as someone who knows a bit of math, these figures are not really matrices.
As it is, I have dealt with matrices that are over 200 by 200, which is what the matrix that the Commerce Dept has describing the input-output matrix of the US economy. That is a real matrix and a heck of a lot more complicated than these silly six by six non-matrices that Navarro is inaccurately describing as matrices.. He just has six by six charts in which he puts check marks or stars or nothing. Actual matrices have numbers in them, not silly signs like check marks.
Oh, and to deal with the over 200 by 200 US input-output matrix, fortunately one does not actually have to visualize a 200 dimensional space, which I think is pretty much beyiond anybody who is not a John von Neumann. Once upon a time such matrices were a great challenge for computers to invert (which you need to do with I-O matrices to get certain interesting outcomes out of them), with this in fact one reason central planning in the old Soviet Union had problems as they were unable to carry this out for the matrices implied in their planning processes. But these days inverting a 200 plus by 200 plus matrix is no big deal at all, easy as falling off a log.
But I have digressed. Bottom line is that understanding and thinking about what is in this silly report by Navarro does not remotely involve “visualizing the sixth dimension.” That you might think so makes it clear that you have no idea at all about what you are talking about here in connection with this, so far off that it is embarrassing. You have yourself sent yourself off into some lost sixth dimension from where you are making no sense at all.
As a matter of fact, let me indicate how difficult it is to “visualize the sixth dimension.” A trick for visualizing one dimension higher than what one is thinking of is to consider a projection of it into the next lower dimension. with it even possible to sort of project it even one dimension further down, although with much more loss of reality. So we regularly project three dimensional space images onto two dimensional surfaces, with the development of linear the linear perspective method by Brunelleschi in the early 15th century in Florence providing a way of doing that quite effectively, with Massaccio being the first painter to use Brunelleschi’s method (he being more a sculptor and architect, most famously designing the Duomo cathedral of Florence).
Now it is possible to project rather poorly a fourth spatial dimension into three dimensions and then even project that down to a two dimensional surface. The classic image of this is the so-called hypercube. So a way to think of a projection down of a five dimensional space would be to consider a space-time that has four spatial dimensions, so considering the projection of the fourth spatial dimension down into the moving three dimensional space as a hypercube represents such a projection.
Personally I find that taking quite a bit of effort to really do. But to get to “the sixth dimension” one must push that whole apparatus up one more level, which I find extremely challenging and cannot say I have done it in a convincing way, and I am pretty certain that Peter Navarro has never engaged in such an exercise successfully, and doing so is most definitely not at all required to contemplate his trivial six by six figures with their silly checks and stars and blanks representing nothing factually accurate at all.
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus in June, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 372,886 cases in the small country as compared to 86,806 in all through all of mainland China.
Israel unfortunately has more than four times the number of coronavirus cases in mainland China.
The per capita case rate in densely populated Israel has been startlingly high, but the per capita case rate in the United States is far higher.
Correcting date and adding reference:
Again, another day has passed, the Trump administration has continued waging an economic war against China. From the Trump candidacy to the presidency, Trump has fostered an American prejudice against the Chinese that was manifest in the long-lived Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. * Trump built an administration deeply antagonistic to China. Now, no matter the continuing of the economic war against China with repeated new onslaughts there is either agreement or no concern shown. I find the matter distressing.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Exclusion_Act
ltr: You don’t need to tell readers: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/05/inclusion-whats-it-good-for
Forgive my mistake. I try to be careful, but as yet not careful enough.
Since I made the mistake, I added what was a needless reference. Thank you so much for the proper reference:
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/chinese-exclusion-act/#transcript
May 29, 2018
The Chinese Exclusion Act
ltr: I wasn’t saying I had a proper reference, merely that Econbrowser readers were familiar with the Exclusion Act.
December 19, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 18,077,768)
Deaths ( 323,401)
India
Cases ( 10,031,659)
Deaths ( 145,513)
France
Cases ( 2,460,555)
Deaths ( 60,418)
UK
Cases ( 2,004,219)
Deaths ( 67,075)
Germany
Cases ( 1,493,961)
Deaths ( 26,414)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,301,546)
Deaths ( 117,249)
Canada
Cases ( 501,594)
Deaths ( 14,154)
China
Cases ( 86,806)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 19, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 986)
US ( 970)
France ( 925)
Mexico ( 905)
Canada ( 373)
Germany ( 315)
India ( 105)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.0%, 3.4% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-20/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WmN0U7n4nC/index.html
December 20, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 23 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Saturday recorded 23 new COVID-19 cases, 1 locally-transmitted and 22 from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Sunday.
Ten new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 205 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
No COVID-19 deaths were reported on Saturday. Meanwhile, 21 patients were discharged from hospitals. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,829, with 4,634 deaths.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-20/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WmN0U7n4nC/img/76ec7f6d17044ca5945bcac5e91e549b/76ec7f6d17044ca5945bcac5e91e549b.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-20/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WmN0U7n4nC/img/3d1f498c3e6648c3af419bfcdb098f54/3d1f498c3e6648c3af419bfcdb098f54.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 309 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 5 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
Michael Flynn and Trump consider another way for Trump to continue as President – declare martial law and the military run a new election:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/report-trump-asked-about-imposing-martial-law-to-run-a-new-election/
To be expected. It’s a proper response to liberals for.burning down the Reichstag.
I hope/pray the orange abomination declares martial law—it will be the END of the orange abomination politically. Its declaration of martial law would be a similar demarcation point to Joseph N. Welch’s “Have you no sense of decency??”
Unless he can get some fed agencies to support him like some of those who worked for him from DHS and DOJ without any IDs on them in Lafayette Square and Portland, not to mention some National Guard troops from super-pro Trump states with super pro-Trump governors, states whose Congresspeople signed onto that Texas AG lawsuit to overthrow the election that SCOTUS tossed out, and with his people in key positions at DOD they keep the official military from actively opposing the move, so that he can actually succeed in preventing Biden’s inauguration and he remains in office, barricaded in the White House. It is clear that while they would be a minority, the numbers of Trumpists who would support this are unpleasantly large.
Probably if he attempted this he would ultimately fail. But it could easily lead to a lot of people dead before that happened, and, hey, we have seen authoritarian leaders in other nations seize permanent power in similar ways. So, no, this is not something to hope for, Moses, not at all remotely.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-20/British-health-secretary-says-new-virus-strain-out-of-control–WnG1l1d6zC/index.html
December 20, 2020
British health secretary says new virus strain ‘out of control’
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said Sunday that the government has imposed a strict Christmas lockdown in London and southeast England because a new strain of the coronavirus was “out of control.”
Hancock warned that new restrictions may have to remain in place for several months until the virus vaccine is fully rolled out.
A number of European countries have or are considering suspension of flight and train arrivals from the UK to prevent the spread of the virus….
I thought Menzie’s regulars might find this useful:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/SARS-CoV-2-variant-multiple-spike-protein-mutations-United-Kingdom.pdf
From what I read, even if this is a variant, it shouldn’t effect the ability of the new vaccines to do their function, So, aside from increasing transmission rates, the actual danger of the virus or variant of the virus is the same after you have acquired it, that is, not more dangerous and not less dangerous. But that’s my laymen’s reading of the situation, but I thought some people might find that comforting on some levels, to know the vaccines will still work, and that once you have gotten the virus, the variant isn’t really any more of the threat than the original as far as mortality is concerned. My understanding is the variants of the virus will only start to effect the ability of vaccines to do their main function (immunity) about 5–6 years on down the line.
Happy to be corrected if I am perceiving this wrongly.
Maybe I should have stated that as temporary immunity, but hopefully that was kind of implied when I mentioned 5-6 years until the variants effected vaccine effectiveness.
You know, just volunteering one of my infamous random thoughts here (usually when I’m most dangerous, snicker snicker) but uhm,
I was watching MSNBC tonight and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson was giving his thoughts on Michael Flynn, what a dangerous and disturbing character Flynn is, and how “disconcerting” it is Flynn had the rank and position he did and then goes on, as they said, this life “trajectory” to where Flynn was working for foreign governments against U.S national security interests. Wilkerson made an interesting “connection of the dots” and asserted he felt General Stanley McChrystal (someone some of us might ALSO refer to as a very dangerous individual who also is the type to be threatening to Americans’ national security) had a large part to play in Flynn getting to where he did in the military, even though there were red flags there with Flynn earlier on in the game. You know who else Stanley McChrystal is a big fan of ???? (I am not joking and being very earnest here) Can one of our labor economist rocket scientists etc…. rummage out a guess here on the other individual Stanley McChrystal is a big fan of and sponsor to?? I’ll give you a couple moments here……..
……..??
……..??
Michèle Flournoy <<—–a person I have warned on this blog before was a very bad idea to head U.S. Dept. of Defense.
https://twitter.com/WindsorMann/status/1341200427581378561
Only 3 people left remaining. Melania, Michael Flynn, and militant Amazonian Sidney Powell. And Sidney doesn’t know how long she can hold out because her strap-on is getting raggedy.
Even Eric Trump is breaking off now because he’s recently uncovered repressed memories of his father chuckling while classmates beat him up for lunch money.
December 20, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 18,267,579)
Deaths ( 324,869)
India
Cases ( 10,056,248)
Deaths ( 145,843)
France
Cases ( 2,473,354)
Deaths ( 60,549)
UK
Cases ( 2,040,147)
Deaths ( 67,401)
Germany
Cases ( 1,514,783)
Deaths ( 26,764)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,313,675)
Deaths ( 117,876)
Canada
Cases ( 507,795)
Deaths ( 14,228)
China
Cases ( 86,829)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 20, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 990)
US ( 979)
France ( 927)
Mexico ( 910)
Canada ( 375)
Germany ( 319)
India ( 105)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.0%, 3.3% and 2.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WoslFBzd2U/index.html
December 21, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 23 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Sunday recorded 23 new COVID-19 cases, 2 locally-transmitted and 21 from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Monday.
Fifteen new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 208 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
No COVID-19 deaths were registered on Sunday. Meanwhile, 14 patients were discharged from hospitals. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,852, with 4,634 deaths.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WoslFBzd2U/img/56bf80b6a64842daa8c1d01e354a5459/56bf80b6a64842daa8c1d01e354a5459.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-21/Chinese-mainland-reports-23-new-COVID-19-cases-WoslFBzd2U/img/04af7254cd544f0aa54b88c4bf52e876/04af7254cd544f0aa54b88c4bf52e876.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 318 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 4 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
December 21, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 1,604)
Italy ( 1,146)
Spain ( 1,053)
UK ( 994)
US ( 984)
France ( 932)
Mexico ( 912)
Sweden ( 789) *
Switzerland ( 781)
Luxembourg ( 713)
Netherlands ( 613)
Portugal ( 608)
Austria ( 602)
Ireland ( 435)
Greece ( 409)
Canada ( 378)
Germany ( 325)
Denmark ( 181)
India ( 105)
Finland ( 91)
Norway ( 74)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 23)
Korea ( 14)
New Zealand ( 5)
China ( 3)
* Sweden, which is experiencing another wave of infections, only reports Tuesday to Friday.
Thank Glod for posting the commenters name first and the mouse scroll/wheek button.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-22/Ezra-Vogel-remembered-for-helping-West-know-China-better-WqnVPfUM80/index.html
December 22, 2020
Ezra Vogel remembered for helping West know China better
By Zeng Ziyi and Wang Xiaonan
Ezra Vogel, one of the foremost U.S. scholars on China who committed a lifetime to building a bridge of peace and understanding between the two nations, died in Mount Auburn Hospital in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on December 20. He was 90.
His son, Steven Vogel, said the cause of death was complications after surgery.
After World War II, Ezra Vogel was among the first American scholars to take up the study of modern China and Japan. His thirst for understanding the two countries lasted six decades and turned into dozens of articles, papers and books that brought East Asia closer to American audiences.
One of the few American scholars who spoke fluent Mandarin and Japanese, Vogel was known for bringing a humanistic touch to his academic work.
“He always wanted to understand people and countries on their own terms,” Steven Vogel told CGTN in an email. “He had an irrepressible ability to see the good in every person and every nation, while recognizing nonetheless that many of us fall short of our ideals.”
Son of Jewish immigrants, Vogel grew up in the small town of Delaware, Ohio where his father ran a men’s clothing shop fittingly titled as “People’s Store.” The boy of boundless good cheer eventually managed to turn what began as boyish enthusiasm about the world into a ticket into the halls of Harvard University where he focused on studies related to Japan, China, and wider East Asia.
Established China scholar
At Harvard, Vogel was known as Mr China, with at least seven sprawling works that give nuanced examinations of this constantly evolving country, ranging from the definitive biography of reformist Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to the thorough depiction of the country’s southern province of Guangdong.
His relationship with China began in the 1960s. The holder of a PhD in sociology, Vogel completed his postdoctoral fellowship on Chinese language and history at Harvard in 1964.
In November 1968, Vogel, his mentor John K. Fairbank – founder of the modern China program at Harvard – and other scholars of East Asian studies at the university, signed a memorandum addressed to then president-elect Richard Nixon suggesting that Washington “balance” its relations with Beijing. That document played a vital role in facilitating Nixon’s historic visit to China in the spring of 1972.
Vogel made his first China trip with the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 1973 and since then a journey to China became his annual routine. In 1987, almost a decade into China’s reform and opening up, he spent seven months traveling across the three special economic zones of Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Santou, 14 cities and over 70 counties in the southern province of Guangdong Province. His exhaustive observation led to his second book on Guangdong – One Step Ahead in China: Guangdong under Reform, two decades after he finished Canton under Communism.
With increasing China-U.S. rapprochement in the 1990s, Vogel continued to work to rev up bilateral ties. In 1997, he helped to arrange then Chinese president Jiang Zemin’s address to Harvard faculties during a state visit to the U.S. “He still remembered vividly how he helped facilitate that visit. He was quite proud of it,” recalled Wang Junsheng, an East Asian studies expert. He met Vogel in 2012 during a tour to inspect a post-tsunami Japan and felt his searing passion for China and East Asian affairs.
“His talk transcended academia and public policy and he did not exhibit any arrogance or sense of his own notoriety, with the talk to a rather intimate audience,” said James Rae, now a professor of American politics at California State University, recalling a time when Vogel gave his class a lecture at American University in the mid-1990s.
At the age of 70, Vogel commenced a 10-year research voyage on Deng Xiaoping whom he thought could help Americans better understand how China’s system steered the country toward becoming an Asian powerhouse. Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China came out in 2011 following over 300 interviews. “No scholar is better qualified than Ezra Vogel to disentangle the contradictions embodied in the life and legacy of China’s boldest strategist,” reads a book description on Amazon.
The erudite academic remained active in attending seminars that sought to heal the much-blighted bilateral ties over the past few years. Amid unabated trade tensions, he urged both countries to give each other fair treatment and lift restrictions on foreign investment. “Rivals don’t have to fight,” he said. “It makes us better by being a rival, as we work harder and improve our skills.”
Earlier this month at an Asia-Pacific security forum, he called on the U.S. to admit China’s contributions to the world and to treat it fairly. “We should give more recognition to Chinese constructive efforts around the world,” he said, citing China’s effort in combating climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic and its assistance in Africa’s infrastructure development.
Vogel’s passing was reported on by all the major news outlets in China and Japan, countries whose global perceptions he undoubtedly shaped. In a time of inflammatory rhetoric against China in the U.S., such prominent media coverage and mourning aren’t just tributes to a respected scholar, but also signify a nostalgia for an era of diplomacy and compromise among nations….
Vogel’s most influential book on Japan was _Japan as Number One_ from 1979, which made a major splash. It is somewhat out of date now, but it changed a lot of thinking about Japan and its economy when it came out.
This is rich. Scott Atlas pens an op-ed with the gall of accusing the media and Democrats of spreading misinformation on the pandemic and fanning political divisions:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-pandemic-of-misinformation-11608570640
Of course Atlas like his boss (Trump) is a disgusting liar so none of this intellectual garbage should come as a surprise. But the Wall Street Journal ran this piece of crap? Just wow.
I’m just hoping someone takes the time to take down this really disgusting rant in a well articulated blog post.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/opinion/stimulus-checks-housing-rent.html
December 22, 2020
The Relief Bill’s Biggest Blind Spot
Millions will owe an average of $5,850 in back rent and utilities next month. But the latest aid package did too little to address housing.
By Claudia Sahm
Congress’ long-awaited new pandemic relief package, at $900 billion in aid, is good, though it’s no CARES Act. It’s smaller and shorter, operating on a scale of weeks, not months. Until spring, those with jobless benefits will get an extra $300 per week; the long-term unemployed will get extra weeks of benefits; and eligibility for benefits will remain broadened. Several other key programs will be extended for weeks as well. Yet even with these extensions, because of Congress’ long holdup in passing the package it could take several weeks to reinstate lapsed benefits, which will leave many beneficiaries still struggling with January rent and bills.
The infuriating delay was caused in part by a late attempt from Republican senators to handicap the powers of the Federal Reserve — the one part of the federal government that has consistently done its job in this crisis.
In the end, the Fed dodged a bullet and will be able to maintain its powers, and the American people will get more money — including direct payments for individuals about half the size of the CARES Act.
Will the package do enough? It’s too early to say. But as someone who spent many years at the Federal Reserve as a macroeconomic forecaster, I have my worries. The trillion dollar cap that the Senate imposed was a made up number that could hurt us come spring. Congress, in essence, is taking another risky bet, despite their poor betting record.
The CARES Act was crafted with an implicit assumption that we could be back to normal in July. We were not. Congress’ dithering until a few weeks ago was based on the assumption of several key senators that the economy might heal itself and that the virus was relatively under control — wrong again.
This new package is built atop another dubious assumption: that enough people will be vaccinated by spring to restore normalcy. If public health officials and Big Pharma can’t pull that off in a distrustful, polarized country, the train wreck we narrowly avoided this month will be bearing down on us again soon….
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/21/opinion/republicans-covid-stimulus.html
December 21, 2020
The Ghost of Sabotage Future
This winter’s economy won’t be as grim as feared, but what about after?
By Paul Krugman
The not-a-stimulus deal Congress reached over the weekend — seriously, this is about disaster relief, not boosting the economy — didn’t come a moment too soon. Actually, it came much too late: Crucial aid to many unemployed Americans and businesses expired months ago. But now some of that aid is back, for a while.
True, the aid will be less generous than it was in the spring and summer: $300 a week in enhanced unemployment benefits, rather than $600. But because the workers still out of a job as a result of the pandemic tended to have low earnings even before the coronavirus struck, they will, on average, be receiving something like 85 percent of their pre-Covid-19 income.
By the way, although the one-time $600 checks to a much wider group of Americans are getting much of the media coverage, they account for only a small percentage of the overall expense and are far less crucial than the unemployment benefits to keeping families afloat.
So what’s not to like about this relief package? There’s some dumb stuff, like a tax break for corporate meal expenses — fighting a deadly pandemic with three-martini lunches. But the serious problem with this deal is that economic aid will end far too soon: Enhanced unemployment benefits will last just 11 weeks. And the process by which the deal was reached has ominous implications for the future….
December 22, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 18,684,628)
Deaths ( 330,824)
India
Cases ( 10,099,308)
Deaths ( 146,476)
France
Cases ( 2,490,946)
Deaths ( 61,702)
UK
Cases ( 2,110,314)
Deaths ( 68,307)
Germany
Cases ( 1,556,611)
Deaths ( 28,241)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,325,915)
Deaths ( 118,598)
Canada
Cases ( 521,509)
Deaths ( 14,425)
China
Cases ( 86,867)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 22, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 1,004)
US ( 997)
France ( 944)
Mexico ( 915)
Canada ( 381)
Germany ( 337)
India ( 106)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 8.9%, 3.2% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-15-new-COVID-19-cases-WrMywkHyW4/index.html
December 23, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 15 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Tuesday recorded 15 new COVID-19 cases, including 14 from overseas and 1 locally transmitted, the National Health Commission announced on Wednesday.
The locally transmitted case was recorded in northeast China’s Liaoning Province.
Fourteen new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 219 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
No COVID-19 deaths were registered on Tuesday. Meanwhile, nine patients were discharged from hospitals. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,882, with 4,634 deaths.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-15-new-COVID-19-cases-WrMywkHyW4/img/3b0922c26c5a44769468256df715d098/3b0922c26c5a44769468256df715d098.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-15-new-COVID-19-cases-WrMywkHyW4/img/ce98ff32db644380bbe55591a6942b83/ce98ff32db644380bbe55591a6942b83.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 320 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 5 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]