DWD data indicates nonfarm payroll employment declines in November, as does private nonfarm employment. Government employment also declines, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services experience diverging fortunes.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from November release (black), forecast from June 2020 Economic Outlook (teal), from November 2020 Economic Outlook (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department of Revenue.
Employment is already undershooting the forecast from early November (discussed in this post). To some extent, this is not surprising as national employment growth has flattened out. Nonetheless, even using the decelerated national employment growth to project out Wisconsin growth, I would have expected about 4,400 more jobs created (as opposed to the 3900 net loss).
Government employment (all levels) continues to decline, illustrating the importance of Federal assistance to state and local governments. State government employment also went down by 2500, while local government went up by 1200.
Figure 2: Wisconsin government employment, all levels (blue), and state and local (red), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.
Finally, the divergent paths for goods producing and high-contact services providing employment is illustrated in figure 3, using manufacturing employment (blue) and accommodation and food services employment (red).
Figure 3: Wisconsin manufacturing employment release (blue), and accommodation and food services employment (red, right log scale), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, and DWD.