More on the China Slowdown

From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:

The August real economic indicators were released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, further confirming a continuing deceleration growth amid the recent regulation storms as well as the Delta variant virus flare-ups in mainland China. In particular, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment all tumbled in terms of year on year growth.

And here are three graphs:

FAI is short for “Fixed Asset Investment”. Be careful with reading this graph, as the figures are the % change year-on-year on year-to-date investment (because these statistics are reported on YTD basis).

More, from Bloomberg a couple days ago, in anticipation of these August data. See also the day before yesterday’s post on the China slowdown.

93 thoughts on “More on the China Slowdown

  1. joseph

    “Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”

    Are they channeling Ron DeSantis? “Stop the lockdowns! You’re ruining the economy! Freedoms!”

    The U.S. virus strategy has killed almost 700,000 people. China, with almost four times the population, has seen less than 5,000 deaths.

    China has currently fully vaccinated 75% of their population while the U.S. has only vaccinated 54%.

    I seems they are saying that 700,000 lives is a small price to pay for a thriving GDP.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      joseph: The question is whether, given the delta variant’s characteristics, the zero tolerance approach is optimal. I agree it certainly seems a better one than others in the first year of the outbreak. I suggest you re-read Yu Yongding’s article, and see the tradeoff that is being confronted.

      1. pgl

        At least there is some informed analysis of their trade offs. As opposed to Trump’s it will all wash away by Easter (2020) or ltr’s incessant cheerleading.

      2. joseph

        Well, I read the article and it seems that the biggest economic problem in China is that the fiscal hawks seem to be in ascendance.

        Their “anti-virus strategy”, on the other hand, seems to be an overwhelming success — unlike the U.S., which is the embarrassment of the entire world for its virus strategy, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical,

        China actually has a chance to virtually eliminate the virus with universal vaccination. They have one of the highest rates of vaccination in the world, including children age 3 and up. Their goal of zero tolerance should be envy of the U.S., who has just given up and surrendered to pigheaded ignorance.

        1. ltr

          Well, I read the article and it seems that the biggest economic problem in China is that the fiscal hawks seem to be in ascendance.

          Their “anti-virus strategy”, on the other hand, seems to be an overwhelming success — unlike the U.S., which is the embarrassment of the entire world for its virus strategy, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical,

          China actually has a chance to virtually eliminate the virus with universal vaccination. They have one of the highest rates of vaccination in the world, including children age 3 and up. Their goal of zero tolerance should be envy of the U.S. …

          [ http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/16/c_1310191387.htm

          September 16, 2021

          Over 1 bln people in China complete COVID-19 vaccination

          BEIJING — More than 1 billion people in China had completed their vaccination against COVID-19 as of Wednesday, showed official figures unveiled Thursday…. ]

          1. macroduck

            China absolutely has no chance of eliminating the virus through vaccination, and you know it. You’re off your leash. China’s vaccines are my effective enough to create herd immunity against the first-wave variant of Covid and are much less effective against the Delta variant.

            You know that, ltr, because comments here have made that point repeatedly. In this instance, you are simply lying in your own words. Since your usual method of lying is a to post Chinese propaganda, I have to assume your masters are demanding a more strident form of lie from you. Did Biden’s phone call make Xi grumpy? Or is there a he’d to distract attention from the sudden worsening in China’s economic performance?

      3. King John's return

        Menzie,
        Do you believe the numbers that China reports are accurate? It seems to me that when Covid first appeared, they were prepared for massive infections ( I distinctly remember hospitals being built in Wuhan from the ground up). Their numbers never really reflected what I would have expected given the density of some of their cities and the underperformance of their vaccines based on the data.

          1. baffling

            probably true. on the other hand, if you had the true numbers, they would still pale in comparison to what we have accomplished in the united states. and it appears the maga hatters will be able to let it burn at least through to the winter months.

    2. ltr

      The U.S. virus strategy has killed almost 700,000 people. China, with almost four times the population, has seen less than 5,000 deaths.

      China has currently fully vaccinated 75% of their population while the U.S. has only vaccinated 54%.

      It seems they are saying that 700,000 lives is a small price to pay for a thriving GDP.

      [ Precisely and tragically so. ]

        1. macroduck

          Honk Kong legislator Regina Ip received two injections of Chinese Covid vaccine seven months ago. Recent tests show no antibodies for the corona virus. Zero. No protection at all. None.

          https://hongkongfp.com/2021/09/17/covid-19-hong-kong-lawmaker-regina-ip-gets-biontech-jab-after-no-antibodies-detected-from-sinovac-vaccines/

          China’s strategy is to let people die from Covid, lie about it and then pay people like ltr to brag about how many worthless vaccinations China has foisted on the world.

          What’s Ip doing about the utter uselessness of China’s vaccine? Taking the German vaccine. It’s an “experiment”, don’t ya know.

      1. macroduck

        The corona virus killed those people, not the U.S. strategy. The U.S. strategy simply allowed the number to be larger than it otherwise would have been.

        Sort of like the way China’s policy is to report numbers lower than they actually have been data. Potemkin would be so proud…

    3. ltr

      Maimonides (Rambam) in a teaching instructs students that “sacrifices” for the sake of community should not be allowed. The community as a whole must be saved. The Chinese are an educated, humane people and the decision has been made to save the whole community to this day the whole community is being saved. The economy has been splendid for decades and will continue to be so, indeed the Chinese in 2020 managed to end severe poverty. For now, the Chinese have expressed a need to save the whole community.

  2. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-15/Chinese-mainland-reports-73-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13zj0Xq5Nja/index.html

    September 15, 2021

    Chinese mainland reports 73 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 73 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 50 cases of local transmission of the virus in its southeastern Fujian Province, the latest data from the National Health Commission showed on Wednesday.

    In addition, 16 new asymptomatic cases were recorded, while 386 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    This brings the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on the Chinese mainland to 95,413, with the death toll unchanged at 4,636.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-15/Chinese-mainland-reports-73-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13zj0Xq5Nja/img/c1cf02955bd24655801c30e2108910a8/c1cf02955bd24655801c30e2108910a8.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-15/Chinese-mainland-reports-73-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13zj0Xq5Nja/img/d104ec9565ec415e94826dde6d08d282/d104ec9565ec415e94826dde6d08d282.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-15/Chinese-mainland-reports-73-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13zj0Xq5Nja/img/a904ec63e3dc421db5d8d72b024b9349/a904ec63e3dc421db5d8d72b024b9349.jpeg

  3. ltr

    http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/15/c_1310189236.htm

    September 15, 2021

    Nearly 2.16 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China

    BEIJING — Nearly 2.16 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in China as of Tuesday, data from the National Health Commission showed Wednesday.

    [ Chinese coronavirus vaccine yearly production capacity is more than 5 billion doses. Along with nearly 2.16 billion doses of Chinese vaccines administered domestically, another billion doses have been distributed to 100 countries internationally. A number of countries are now producing Chinese vaccines from delivered raw materials. ]

  4. ltr

    http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/15/c_1310189860.htm

    September 15, 2021

    China’s economy continues recovery, shows resilience

    BEIJING — China’s economy maintained the trend of recovery in August despite disruptions from the COVID-19 epidemic and natural disasters, showing the resilience of the world’s second largest economy.

    The country’s industrial output showed stable growth in August this year, with the value-added industrial output, a key indicator reflecting industrial activities and economic prosperity, expanding 5.3 percent year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    The figure was up 11.2 percent from the level in August 2019. In the first eight months, industrial output gained 13.1 percent year on year, resulting in an average two-year growth of 6.6 percent, NBS data shows.

    High-tech manufacturing became a shining point in the industrial output as the country strived for industrial and technological upgrading. Last month, the output of the sector jumped 18.3 percent year on year, accelerating by 2.7 percentage points compared with the figure registered in July.

    China’s retail sales of consumer goods went up 2.5 percent year on year in August, down by 6 percentage points from the previous month.

    The sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19 and natural disasters such as floods hindered travel and held back consumption during the summer holiday, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui said, adding that the high base factor also resulted in the steep year-on-year drop.

    However, the cumulative growth for the last eight months showed that retail sales gained 18.1 percent year on year, which means consumption remained generally stable and the recovery trend was unchanged, said Fu….

    1. ltr

      http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/07/c_1310173798.htm

      September 7, 2021

      China’s foreign trade sustains growth momentum

      BEIJING — China’s foreign trade sustained growth momentum in the first eight months of the year as external demand continued to pick up and the economy maintained stable development.

      In the first eight months of the year, the country’s total imports and exports expanded 23.7 percent year on year to 24.78 trillion yuan (about 3.84 trillion U.S. dollars), data from the General Administration of Customs showed Tuesday.

      The figure marked a 22.8-percent increase compared with the level registered during the same period in 2019, according to Customs data.

      Both exports and imports logged double-digit growth in the January-August period, surging 23.2 percent and 24.4 percent from a year earlier, respectively.

      Trade surplus increased 17.8 percent year on year during the same period to 2.34 trillion yuan….

      1. ltr

        http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/16/c_1310191375.htm

        September 16, 2021

        China approves 11 fixed-asset investment projects in August

        BEIJING — The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, said on Thursday that it approved 11 fixed-asset investment (FAI) projects in August.

        The projects, with a combined investment value of 100.6 billion yuan (about 15.64 billion U.S. dollars), mainly cover areas including transport and power generation, the commission said.

        Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that China’s FAI went up 8.9 percent year on year in the first eight months of this year….

      1. ltr

        http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/16/c_1310191926.htm

        September 16, 2021

        China’s FDI inflow up 22.3 percent in first 8 months

        BEIJING — Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Chinese mainland, in actual use, rose 22.3 percent year on year to 758.05 billion yuan, or 113.78 billion U.S. dollars, in the first eight months of the year, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday.

        Foreign investment in the service industry came in at 599.33 billion yuan during the period, up 25.8 percent year on year, with foreign investment in the high-tech services sector rising 35.2 percent.

        During the period, investments from the Belt and Road countries expanded 37.6 percent, and investment from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 36.8 percent, respectively….

  5. Barkley Rosser

    Something else that should be considered in all this is China’s low level of happiness as measured by pretty much everybody, most recently according to Gallup at 86th out of 156 countries, with a 1-10 score of 5.34 compared to a global average of 5.51. Curiously China had a higher happiness level in `1990 than it does today. As an example of the Easterlin Paradox that rapid GDP growth does not necessarily increase happiness, happiness levels fell in the PRC until around 2005, as inequality surge. It stopped falling around then, and has crept up a bit since, but not all that much, with its gl;obal ranking declining.

    Easterlin has speculated that what led to the decline stopping was the extension ni 2005 by then leader Hu Jintao of old age pensions to rural areas, which improved the sense of security of many citizens. Something that many have identified as holding back happiness improvements has been the high levels of pollution as well as resentments over high levels of inequality.

    Oh, the happiest nation in Asia, and 26th globally, is Taiwan. Of course we have been assured here that the PRC does not wish to dominate any other nations, but they get around that by saying Taiwan is not another nation, so they can get to dominate it, and if they do, no doubt its happiness level will decline.

    1. pgl

      Growth income is not the same thing as income per person. And income is not the best measure for net economic welfare.

    2. Moses Herzog

      @ Barkley Rosser
      This is one of your better comments, as much as it pains me to say it. Horrible. Just complimenting you I feel my happiness score and my happiness index is dramatically lowering by the second.

      I have a lot of thoughts on this, which could reach near novel length if I just wandered down that train of thought. I’ll spare you today. But one of the reasons I like your comment is, I think if we’re looking for answers to many of China’s problems and/or “unhappiness” or “lack of happiness”, the answers are mostly found in what are the distinctive differences between China and Taiwan—though not a magical answer to everything, a significant portion of answers can be found there. Religion could also be some part of it. But I never went down the proselytizing road when I lived in China (outside of giving a nice NKJV Bible to one of my male students who actively sought me out on this topic, along with advice the Bible was horrible for studying contemporary English) and I’m not gonna do it on this blog either. Just saying that could be part of it.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        Gosh, Mose, sorry to lower your happiness index. Hopefully your life satisfaction one is still holding up. The two are highly correlated, but not perfectly so.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Actually, Moses, not to wisecrack, while Taiwan certainly has more freedom of religion than PRC, and is officially Confucianist, I suspect other elements are more important, including a lot of other freedoms they have, as well as a functioning two-party democracy and so on that PRC clearly lacks. There is also no major oppression of ethnic minorities, despite some lingering discrimination against the indigenous population.

        But it also beats PRC on pretty much every substantial economic and social measure, including more equal income and wealth, higher real per capita income, lower pollution levels, and much greater freedom and status for women and LGBTQ people. PRC only beats it on such things as having a space program and nuclear weapons, which are things that large nations with large aggregate economies have, but that do not really have much effect on daily life of people.

  6. macroduck

    “…consumption remained generally stable and the recovery trend was unchanged, said Fu….”

    Of course, this is not at all what the charts show. China is going through a period of extraordinary volatility in economic performance. Fu is not describing the performance of the economy. He is mischaracterizing the data. “Stable” and “unchanged” are both clearly understand true. Just look at the data.

  7. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-80-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13AYa3lUAbm/index.html

    September 16, 2021

    Chinese mainland reports 80 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 80 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, including 49 cases of local transmission of the virus, mostly in southeastern Fujian Province, the latest data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    In addition, 13 new asymptomatic cases were recorded, while 373 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    This brings the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on the Chinese mainland to 95,493, with the death toll unchanged at 4,636.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-80-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13AYa3lUAbm/img/f90ee737873c4eedaea2a54354e31114/f90ee737873c4eedaea2a54354e31114.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-80-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13AYa3lUAbm/img/5bb9b3b3a0924e679b51b50371cf58a2/5bb9b3b3a0924e679b51b50371cf58a2.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-16/Chinese-mainland-reports-80-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13AYa3lUAbm/img/35e393b464074f16ac8faf6b7f89d962/35e393b464074f16ac8faf6b7f89d962.jpeg

  8. ltr

    http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/16/c_1310191387.htm

    September 16, 2021

    Over 1 bln people in China complete COVID-19 vaccination

    BEIJING — More than 1 billion people in China had completed their vaccination against COVID-19 as of Wednesday, showed official figures unveiled Thursday.

    A total of 2.16 billion vaccine jabs had been administered, said Mi Feng, a National Health Commission spokesperson, at a press conference of the State Council inter-agency task force for COVID-19 response.

  9. Ivan

    The delta variant may overwhelm the current strategy in China; but it is not clear that now is be the time to “give up” and ease up on a hugely successful strategy. The vaccine developed by China is not as good as those used in the western world, so it’s not clear that they will be able to obtain herd immunity with it, even if they get in excess of 95% immunizations. However, the illness suffered by immunized people is much less problematic (bad flue) than that suffered by unvaccinated people. Sure, if they get to a situation where 90% of all cities are in total lockdown they will be forced to reevaluate their strategy – but the closer they get to 100% vaccinated before they switch to a less disruptive containment strategy, the better.

  10. ltr

    The Chinese began vaccination in June 2020. Between June 1, 2020 and September 16, 2021, there have sadly been 2 coronavirus caused deaths in China, however neither patient had been vaccinated. Since June 2020, there has been no death of a vaccinated person in China.

  11. joseph

    “Do I believe China’s covid-19 numbers? No.”

    Do you have any better numbers? Can you put any kind of range on your numbers?

    If China had the same mortality rate as the U.S. for covid, there would have been over 2.9 million deaths in China. Do you think China has covered up 2.9 million covid deaths?

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      joseph: No, I don’t have better numbers. I don’t think they covered up 2.9 mn deaths. But my faith the CCP would allow an honest recounting of such a sensitive number is nil.

      1. Ivan

        There is no doubt that China (like New Zealand) had a very effective containment strategy. As Menzie, I have little faith in the postulate that CCP had just 2 deaths. There are strong incentives, at low and midlevels, to not report a death as being due to Covid. When people lose their jobs and career for reporting (their?) failure, they find all kinds of ways to bend or hide reality. There is no doubt that a strict containment strategy save lives, but it is not that important whether China’s extremely tight containment approach saved 2.9, 2.8 or 2.5 million lives. The other side of that equation is how much damage has/will result from the lock-downs. When/if all is counted it probably was lucky for China that their dictator is a smart and capable germaphobe (in contrast to our orange terror wannabe, who is dumb as a rock and a screwup).

    2. ltr

      Do you think China has covered up 2.9 million covid deaths?

      [ Yes, because there were actually 4,636 coronavirus deaths in China. Such a number is deeply saddening, but accurate as the many, man y medical staff through the country who struggled so courageously understand.

      Four thousand six hundred thirty six. ]

    3. ltr

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-19-new-COVID-19-cases-7-in-Beijing-RJFqVbXekU/index.html

      June 30, 2020

      Chinese mainland reports 19 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

      A total of 19 new COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Monday, of which 8 were local transmissions and 11 were from overseas, with no additional deaths, according to Chinese health authorities on Tuesday.

      Seven of the locally transmitted cases were registered in Beijing, the other in Shanghai, the National Health Commission said in its daily report.

      The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,531 and the cumulative death toll at 4,634, with 99 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.

      The total confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special
      administrative regions and the Taiwan region are as follows:

      Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-19-new-COVID-19-cases-7-in-Beijing-RJFqVbXekU/img/8fec72663d6241429b460e3469bcf2ca/8fec72663d6241429b460e3469bcf2ca.jpeg

      Chinese mainland new imported cases

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-19-new-COVID-19-cases-7-in-Beijing-RJFqVbXekU/img/39551b6ef58d4b5f873e517ae5da70b8/39551b6ef58d4b5f873e517ae5da70b8.jpeg

      Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

      https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-30/Chinese-mainland-reports-19-new-COVID-19-cases-7-in-Beijing-RJFqVbXekU/img/78e651234c2648df8f253c31be88d5ca/78e651234c2648df8f253c31be88d5ca.jpeg

  12. baffling

    just for clarity, there is a commenter on this blog who links to a lot of http://www.news.cn articles that promote china. this site is owned by Xinhua News Agency, which is a chinese propaganda ministry beholden to the leadership of the ccp. i just wanted people to understand where some of these articles are sourced. xinhua has a history of spreading propaganda around the world. CGTN is another ccp owned propaganda media company. as always, please vet your sources.

    1. pgl

      So Xinhua News Agency is to the Communist Party of China what Faux News is to Trumpian Republicans? Good to know.

      1. baffling

        it’s worse, since xinhua is formally a part of the government and reports directly to the communist party in charge. murcdoch and faux news have the right to walk away and print whatever they choose. not so with xinhua. if they do not abide by ccp rules, they can simply no longer exist. much of ltr’s chinese “propaganda” on this site comes from the sources.

  13. ltr

    Of course the Chinese data has been painstakingly collected, recorded and honestly published. However, the Chinese answer to the Chinese, and in no way are obligated to answer to hostile foreign forces bent on the ruining of China. We are not about to return to the days of the colonial ruining of China. The Opium Wars will not be repeated. The destruction of Nanjing, the intolerable destruction of the people of Nanjing will not be repeated, ever, ever, ever.

    “Never again,” as the people of the Shoah know.

    China always remembers the Shoah.

    1. macroduck

      I’m not sure what spurred this tantrum, but I’ll play along. Things that should never be repeated but that were left off of ltr’s list:

      -The largest famine in history, the result of China’s “Great Leap Forward”

      -The Cultural Revolution (including massacres in Beijing, Guangxi, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia, with bouts of cannibalism thrown in)

      -The occupation of Tibet

      -Extermination of the Dzungar Mongols

      -China’s civil war

      There are just so many things that should never happen again, but which didn’t end up on ltr’s list.

    2. macroduck

      Heck, as long as silly chest-thumping is the flavor of the day, let’s not ignore these chestnuts:

      “Remember the Maine!”
      “Remember the Alamo!”
      “You Forgot Our Anniversary…AGAIN!”
      And of course “My mom can beat up your mom!”

    3. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,,

      “We”? Does this mean that you are a citizen of the Peoples’ Republic of China? It always seemed back in the days when you were anne of Economist View that you were a US-based commentator, even one born and raised here, despite your strong support for the PRC, not quite as propagandistic as it is now.

      But am I mistaken? Were you always based in China and never lived in the US or maybe grew up there and moved here bur remained a citizen? Heck, at this rate it might turn out that Moses Herzog is right and that you are actually a “he.” Maybe that is due to a change, although it is my understanding that the CCP these days does not approve of such things, with the latest outbirst against “feminine-looking” men on PRC media.

      Note here, please, ltr, I am not meaning you ill at all. I am just curious, and you have sort of gone a bit mysterious. If you are not the former anne, you most certainly post exactly like “she” used to, with the only change I can see that you are now more fervently pro-PRC and official lines coming out of there than previously.

    4. baffling

      “Of course the Chinese data has been painstakingly collected, recorded and honestly published.”
      and this is known how? data is published by propaganda arms of the ccp.

      “We are not about to return to the days of the colonial ruining of China.”
      how does that view work with the invasion of tibet? or the continued harassment of taiwan? interesting, china does not want outsiders to influence or control its actions. but that is exactly what it is doing as an outsider in tibet and taiwan. well spoken ltr. in china, it appears to be do as i say, not as i do.

  14. Gregory Bott

    Anti-Virus strategy isn’t why they had these “out of the blue” restrictions. It was a cover. The real reason is other reasons such as future pandemic containment, isolationism for personal repression. Though they are ending in October and those numbers will reverse asap. Economic bean counters need to learn those indicators don’t have the value you think. Especially when they can be turned on a dime.

  15. ltr

    The Jewish Holy Days are just passing and the teaching of Maimonides are remembered:

    Maimonides (Rambam) * in a teaching instructs students that “sacrifices” for the sake of community should not be allowed. The community as a whole must be saved. The Chinese are an educated, humane people and the decision has been made to save the whole community to this day the whole community is being saved. The economy has been splendid for decades and will continue to be so, indeed the Chinese in 2020 managed to end severe poverty. For now, the Chinese have expressed a need to save the whole community.

    The person who founded the PLA medical corps was a European Jew, a doctor, who escaped the Shoah to Shanghai. There is a statue to this doctor before a large Chinese hospital and this doctor is memorialized each year in Israel by Israelis and Chinese.

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maimonides

    1. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      I am going to call you out on all these references to Shoah and Maimonides at the end of the High Holy Days. This is just disgusting and hypocritical on your part, and I have too many Jewish people in my family just finishing recognizing Yom Kippur to put up with this garbage further.

      1) The Chinese government that provided refuge for Jews during WW II was that of the REPUBLIC OF CHINA, which currently rules Taiwan, NOT the PRC. As it is, you have repeated the lie that the PRC is not threatening its neighbors, when in fact it is regularly threatening that very government that saaved Jews in WW II, but you suppport this government that now falsely claims responsibility for it. Lie lie lie!

      2) The PRC has been accused of committing genocide against minority groups within its borders. I have actually been one who has argued that this term may be too strong, but there is no doubt that very harmful policies have been in place for some time now against such groups. Again, making outright false claims about the PRC helping Jews in WW II is completely unacceptable give these hard facts.

      I strongly suggest that you stay away from this topic in the future totally. It is one of the most evil and nauseating things you have posted. Please do not engage in such lying hypocrisy again on this subject. You really should know better, and pretty much everybody else here does.

  16. joseph

    Well, then, if China had the same infection rate as the U.S., they would have had over 129 million cases. Do you think China could have covered up 129 million cases of covid? Do you think somewhere just somebody might have noticed?

    If you don’t trust their numbers, do you think they are off by 1% or 10% or 100%? Without any context, mistrusting their numbers is kind of a meaningless statement.

    1. ltr

      “Well, then, if China had the same infection rate as the U.S., they would have had over 129 million cases. Do you think China could have covered up 129 million cases of covid? Do you think somewhere just somebody might have noticed?”

      http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/17/c_1310194186.htm

      September 17, 2021

      Cambodia launches COVID-19 inoculation for children with Chinese vaccines, one step forward to normal life

      PHNOM PENH — Emotions ran high for parents in Cambodia on Friday as the Southeast Asian nation began a COVID-19 vaccination drive for children aged from six to 12 years, with China’s Sinovac COVID-19 vaccines.

      Children, assisted by their parents or legal guardians, were seen queuing outside vaccination centers in the capital city Phnom Penh as they waited to receive the first shot of the jab.

      You Sokhuon, the 40-year-old mother of two, said she felt a sense of relief after having her 10-year-old boy and six-year-old girl vaccinated against the disease.

      “I’m delighted that they’ve received their first dose of Sinovac vaccine,” she told Xinhua. “With the jab, I’m confident that they will be safe facing the COVID-19.”

      You Y, 47, a mother of a seven-year-old and an 11-year-old son, said since the COVID-19 outbreak, she has always worried about her children’s safety because the disease was highly contagious.

      “Now, I feel relieved after having them vaccinated. As a mother, protecting their health is the most important thing,” she told Xinhua. “Thanks to China for supplying the vaccine and the Cambodian government for giving all of us free vaccines.”

      In Borey Vathanak, a fourth-grade student at the Sothearos Primary School, said that he hoped the primary schools, which have been shut down since late February, will reopen soon after the 6-12 years age group have been fully vaccinated with two vaccine doses.

      “I had longed for the vaccine. Now, I got it, I’m very happy,” the 10-year-old boy told Xinhua….

    2. ltr

      [ Well, then, if China had the same infection rate as the U.S., they would have had over 129 million cases. Do you think China could have covered up 129 million cases of covid? Do you think somewhere just somebody might have noticed? ]

      Thank you so much, Joseph.

    3. macroduck

      No, no, no, no. No. Not trusting third numbers is really, really important.

      Not being able to trust the data from China means increased uncertainty. China accounts for nearly 18% of the human population of the world. That’s a lot of virus incubators. If we could trust China’s data, we could plan better, cooperate better. We could respond more quickly to new developments.

      There is a heck of a lot of meaning in not trusting China’s data.

    4. ltr

      Well, then, if China had the same infection rate as the U.S., they would have had over 129 million cases. Do you think China could have covered up 129 million cases of covid? Do you think somewhere just somebody might have noticed?

      — Joseph

      [ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

      September 16, 2021

      Coronavirus

      US

      Cases ( 42,634,054)
      Deaths ( 688,486)

      Deaths per million ( 2,065)

      China

      Cases ( 95,493)
      Deaths ( 4,636)

      Deaths per million ( 3) ]

  17. ltr

    By January 27, 2020 the New York Times was already calling the Chinese quarantine “dirty” and self-defeating or going to “make things worse.” Chinese construction of negative air-pressure treatment and recovery room hospitals was dismissed. Chinese construction of negative air-pressure ambulances was dismissed. Chinese medical staff showed the specific precautions they took in film made available internationally. Chinese medical staff consulted repeatedly when asked by foreign medical staff. Of course, the Chinese precautions and procedures worked.

    Another country not only did not quarantine even nursing home residents, but sent coronavirus patients to nursing homes from hospitals… As Harvard researchers have found, and written about in JAMA, tens of thousands of nursing home coronavirus cases and thousand of deaths in this other country were not even nationally recorded before May 24, 2020.

  18. ltr

    Huoshenshan and Leishenshan, the self-contained hospitals for treating coronavirus patients in Wuhan, were built between January 23, 2020 and the first week of February. The entire building process was broadcast live, and was a remarkably hopeful accomplishment. Medical specialists were flown to Wuhan and proved notably successful at treatment and protecting themselves:

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/02/c_138750288.htm

    February 2, 2020

    China builds new hospital in 10 days to combat coronavirus

  19. ltr

    Interestingly and importantly, as I was taught in class by an African-American physician and psychologist who literally had a Paul Robeson-like life, the way in which a manner of prejudice is manifest is to try repeatedly to shame a people. The Jews of Spain (or England) experienced this from before Columbus. Chinese were depicted as insects (Kafka should be thought of), as a “color revolution” was fostered in a former colony… Fortunately, I will never forget the teaching. The shaming can be bothering, since members of even the current Administration have tried the approach in the past, and the last Administration was all about shaming, but being taught means going on determinedly.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      Hmmm. So now it sort of looks like indeed you lived in the US when you were young,, as indeed it long seemed to me that anne of EV used to sort of appear to have done, although now you proclaim yourself to be part of a “We” that is the people of the PRC. OK. As it is I completely oppose all anti-Chinese and more broadly anti-Asian prejudice, which is an increasing problem in the US. A fresh example of this is recent WaPo report on a long-running FBI campaign against various scientists of Chinese origin who have been accused of aiding the PRC. It now seems that this campaign has been falling on its face due to numerous false allegations, with the program having recently been sharply cut back due to realization by the Biden admin that it had become an essentially racist campaign that had gotten out of control pursuing false or exaggerated allegations.

      So, having just been called out for falsely clainmng (or appearing to claim) that it was the PRC that provided refuge for Jewish refugees from Hitler in WW II when it was in fact the ROC government now ruling Taiwan, which you never mention, although perhaps you do not support the egregious PRC campaign to conquer the far superior Taiwan to PRC, even as you repeated bile from the PRC that they are not threatening to dominate any neighbors, and while PRC carries out widely condemned policies against various minority groups, here you go invoking “The Jews of Spain (or England)” from before the time of Columbus. Well, this really is not acceptable from you, my dear.

      I am going to call you out on this sort of thing, if you continue to do it, ltr. I used to respect you, and you do still on a fairly regular basis post generally intelligent and well-informed posts when you are posting about matters not directly related to the PRC, as you used to back when you were anne of Economists View, someone I respected, if did not always agree with. But given the all-but genocidal conduct of the PRC against some of its minorities, you really need to stay away from making a single comment or reference to Jews or anything about bad treatment of them. Sorry, ltr, but the Uyghurs of Xinjiang look like today’s Jews, and have yet to admit that it was the ROC that helped Jews during WW II, not the PRC. Ugh.

  20. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-46-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13EhYDDjXj2/index.html

    September 18, 2021

    Chinese mainland reports 46 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 46 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Friday, including 31 locally-transmitted cases all in southeast China’s Fujian Province, the latest data from the National Health Commission showed on Saturday.

    In addition, 17 new asymptomatic cases were recorded, while 369 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    This brings the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Chinese mainland to 95,623, with the death toll remaining at 4,636.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-46-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13EhYDDjXj2/img/8770dd78abee4ebfb7fe27ad7fb96641/8770dd78abee4ebfb7fe27ad7fb96641.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-46-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13EhYDDjXj2/img/2a213650c919484e9341fac9dc0054d5/2a213650c919484e9341fac9dc0054d5.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-09-18/Chinese-mainland-reports-46-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-13EhYDDjXj2/img/1eb980be5e2244768ebea62c120b350c/1eb980be5e2244768ebea62c120b350c.jpeg

  21. ltr

    http://www.news.cn/english/2021-09/18/c_1310196194.htm

    September 18, 2021

    2.17 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China

    BEIJING — A total of 2.17 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in China as of Friday, data from the National Health Commission showed Saturday.

    [ Chinese coronavirus vaccine yearly production capacity is more than 5 billion doses. Along with over 2.17 billion doses of Chinese vaccines administered domestically, another billion doses have been distributed to 100 countries internationally. A number of countries are now producing Chinese vaccines from delivered raw materials. ]

  22. ltr

    There was discussion of the international use of the Chinese Yuan, and I made the point that China has been working to make sure that the currency can be used unimpeded by possible applications of economic sanctions. Evidently, Chinese central bankers have reached the point of surety. The application of a new slew of sanctions against Chinese “entities” has been met with no tangible concern and China has asked that Iran become a full part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization * even though Iran is ridden with sanctions that are meant to stop economic transactions with partner countries.

    Also, China has been trading freely with Cuba, though Cuba is ridden by sanctions. Use of the Yuan will not be impeded.

    * The SCO is a partnership among countries with more than 3 billion people: https://thecradle.co/Article/analysis/2019

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      ltr: As long as convertibility of yuan assets is in question (i.e., capital controls are extant, and/or plausible), international use of the yuan will remain limited.

      1. ltr

        As long as convertibility of yuan assets is in question (i.e., capital controls are extant, and/or plausible), international use of the yuan will remain limited.

        [ Chinese policy is formed pragmatically in the sense that William James used the term (the term pragmatism actually belongs to James). The point being that a policy move, say especially to currency convertibility, will be cautious and gradual and even tentative with an eye to potential problems. Having currency convertibility is not going to be considered an unalloyed good. Even now, George Soros has been directly threatening China economically and the Chinese are not about to forget the British Pound and 1992. ]

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          ltr: Yes, convertibility is dangerous especially if the domestic financial system is unstable, and/or domestic economic policy is subject to high uncertainty. To the extent both these conditions apply to China at this moment, it would be unwise for China to try to push RMB internationalization via capital account liberalization.

          1. ltr

            Yes, convertibility is dangerous especially if the domestic financial system is unstable, and/or domestic economic policy is subject to high uncertainty….

            [ Forgive me, but the Chinese financial system is stable * and domestic economic policy, subject always to procedural modifications, has been framed for this 5-year period. I know that a prominent University of California economist has been repeatedly predicting an economic collapse of China since 1980 (since China lacks “North Atlantic” style institutions). I know this professor expects the current president of China will cost the country “10 to 50 years” of development. What I know however is just how stable China has been built to be.

            There are always economic problems, the questions are the resolutions and the system fosters resolutions.

            * At least $4.5 trillion worth of financial system stability, just on the surface, but there is more to this stability.

            I am grateful for the fine, studied comment. ]

          2. ltr

            To paraphrase a character in “The Graduate”, I have just one word for you…

            [ Thank you so much for the recommendation. The film in question was shown as a study diversion, but was too little a diversion so we did not stay.

            As for the property investment abuse, the problem is important but understood and will be of limited scope, while accounting control and supervision measures are already being taken to insure there can be no repeat. Property speculation by Chinese companies, whether in domestic or international markets, is being monitored and limited. The Chinese are aware of Japanese property speculation problems that developed especially after the Plaza Accord.

            The recommendation was kind. ]

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            ltr: I am sure the Chinese authorities are monitoring the situation. I was not criticizing their management of the situation (although I’m not approving either). I’m just making the point that the stability of the Chinese financial system is open to question. In 2007 I was not altogether confident of the US financial system’s stability, either, so this is not a concern directed solely at China.

    2. ltr

      As long as convertibility of yuan assets is in question (i.e., capital controls are extant, and/or plausible), international use of the yuan will remain limited.

      [ Surely so, but the policy concern is always that capital flows not be economically destabilizing. The recent experience of the Chinese is just how destabilizing capital flows can be in Thailand or Malaysia or Indonesia or even Korea and how difficult recovery can be from destabilizing capital flows. China will be allow for an Indonesia-like currency experience.

      However, economic sanctions which are so readily used can be a limiting factor in Chinese trade relations and the obvious intent of Chinese policy makers is to make sure China can trade as considered necessary. Chinese trade relations are meant to be benign and mutually beneficial, and will be conducted with partnering countries at Chinese discretion.

      Thank you so much. ]

  23. ltr

    There is even now a team led by a Harvard graduate become a prominent CEO, travelling through Xinjiang and finding just what official representatives of dozens of countries have found and attested to before the United Nations, which is that Xinjiang is a finely developing region with a people who feel they are in every way and who are grateful to be part of China.  Ambassadors of dozens of countries have repeatedly and completely supported China before the UN on Xinjiang.  Every neighboring country, one predominantly Muslim country after another, has supported China before the UN on Xinjiang.

    I am in no way concerned and, as I carefully explained, I understand the way in which shaming is used to try to make a people ashamed, and in understanding I am protected and even comforted.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      And dozens of nations have taken the oppposite view before the UN. Almost none of those signing the pro-China statement are functioning democracies,.

    2. ltr

      https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-13/64-countries-call-for-stopping-politicization-of-human-rights–YAnYBd1wo8/index.html

      March 13, 2021

      64 countries call for stopping politicization of human rights

      Madam President,

      I have the honor to speak on behalf of 64 countries.

      We maintain that all sides should promote and protect human rights through constructive dialogue and cooperation and firmly oppose politicization of human rights and double standards.

      We commend the people-center philosophy that the Chinese government pursues and achievements that have been made in its human rights cause. Xinjiang is an inseparable part of China. We urge the relevant sides to abide by the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs by manipulating Xinjiang related issues, refrain from making unfounded allegations against China out of political motivations and curbing the development of developing countries under the pretext of human rights.

      Thank you, Madam President.

  24. ltr

    When dismissing prejudiced assaults by few governments on China, possibly dismissing the support for China from virtually every African government might be understood to be self-defeating. Curious that there is so much difficulty moving beyond Rudyard Kipling

    1899

    (The United States and the Philippine Islands)

    The White Man’s Burden

    Take up the White Man’s burden–
    Send forth the best ye breed–
    Go bind your sons to exile
    To serve your captives’ need;
    To wait in heavy harness,
    On fluttered folk and wild–
    Your new-caught, sullen peoples,
    Half-devil and half-child.

    Take up the White Man’s burden–
    In patience to abide…

    1. ltr

      Correcting:

      When “accepting” prejudiced assaults by a few governments on China, possibly dismissing the support for China from virtually every African government might be understood to be self-defeating…

  25. David O'Rear

    ” Xinjiang is a finely developing region with a people who feel they are in every way and who are grateful to be part of China.”

    And here we have all the proof necessary to understand this writer.

    1. Baffling

      This statement is true for the walking public, as it does not include the desires of those incarcerated in the chinese detention camps. Similar statements apply to those chinese living in tibet, if you ignore the wishes of the native tibetans under occupation from china today.
      Ltr you comments are full of propaganda.

  26. ltr

    Interesting and importantly, Xinjiang is a highly attractive destination for travelers, * and tens of millions of travelers visit there yearly and record the visits with delight. Then too, the region is important as a business transport hub and transport flows daily to and from the region continually and smoothly and agreeably to transporters and traders. Olympic athletes came the region, Paralympic athletes came from the region. Regional athletes have just been competing in national games. Students from the region attend colleges through the country. Actors from the region perform through the country…

    * http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/08/c_138540007.htm

    November 8, 2019

    Xinjiang receives over 200 mln tourists in first 10 months

    The number of tourists to northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region exceeded 200 million from January to October this year, up 42.62 percent year on year, according to local authorities.

  27. ltr

    I understand that the support for China of a Jeffrey Sachs or William Schabas will have no resonance or meaning for many, and ambassadors from about the developing world are routinely dismissed in supporting the Chinese, families who come and go on religious pilgrimage are somehow discounted, but still I try to tell of them:

    https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/apfjc5yg352d554k2ar2wwwkk8ryw9

    May 10, 2021

    Xinjiang genocide allegations are unjustified
    By JEFFREY SACHS and WILLIAM SCHABAS

    Jeffrey Sachs is director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. William Schabas is a Professor of Human Rights Law and International Criminal Law at Leiden University.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      ltr,

      As you know, I am one of the few here who has questioned the use of the term “genocide” for what is being done to the Uyghurs (or Uighurs) in Xinjiang. However, this report seems to downplay what is going on. It admits that maybe a million Uighurs have been put into camps, while dismissing this as constituting genocide, and also admits some other human rights abuses. What they fail to address are the fairly widespread and credible accusations of Uighur women being sterilized. Rather they claim the Uighur population in the past has grown more rapidly than the Han population, and is still growing at a positive rate. This is pretty weak.

      They also justify all this, as do you, ltr, on the basis of past terrorism by Uyghurs in the province. It must be admitted that there has been some of this. But it seems to be in the past. There were occasional attacks from 1992 up through 2011, with some deaths. The main period of attacks seems to have been 2012-2014, wit h20 people killed i n2012-13, but then a seriously large number, 187, killed in 2014. All this is according to a Wikipedian entry on the conflict.However, there have been zero such deaths since then, despite some efforts to claim otherwise by the government for some odd attacks in places like Thaliand.

      So, the bottom line is that there has been a problem, with it definitely pretty bad i 2014. But it basically has been under control since then. This does not remotely justify this relatively recent acceleration of oppression that is going on, which includes practices that many consider to be genocide, such as forced sterilizations.

  28. ltr

    This is, of course, a special anniversary year in Tibet, and all through the year there have been portraits in the media of Tibetans born before 1951. A range of Tibetans described life in the province before 1951, life in a land of serfdom, and showed what life had become. Life with homes and utilities and land and animals and families and schooling and careers and healthcare and long life spans and plunging infant mortality and pensions and respect (no longer being serfs). Tibet was free of severe poverty by 2000. Tibet, become a land of increasingly advanced infrastructure and residents who helped build a free Tibet and who are free to appreciate all that has been created there.

    Shangri-La, which never was, is gone. Rather, there is an actually magical Tibet.

    1. ltr

      http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-08/21/c_1310140692.htm

      August 21, 2021

      A Tibetan family witnesses Tibet’s great changes in 70 years

      LHASA — Yarlung Zangbo River, the longest plateau river in China and one of the highest rivers in the world, runs through the city of Shigatse in southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. People living on the north bank have to cross the roaring river to reach the city’s downtown area and beyond.

      Phumtsog, 88, a villager from Dongkar Town, and three generations of his offsprings have different versions of stories of crossing the river but are witnesses of the great changes in Tibet — from backwardness to progress and from poverty to prosperity spanning seven decades.

      Recalling bitter days of the past, Phumtsog said that “children were taken as serfs at a very young age when their baby teeth had just fallen out, and they had to work for their masters from dawn to dusk.”

      Phumtsog used to live a miserable life just like about 1 million serfs in old Tibet. Things began to change since the peaceful liberation of Tibet in 1951. One million serfs were liberated in 1959 when the feudal serfdom was abolished through democratic reform.

      In 1956, Phumtsog, who was in his 20s, managed to cross the Yarlung Zangbo River on a boat made of bull hide and joined the Chinese People’s Liberation Army stationed in Shigatse. He received basic education in the army for the first time in his life. He also committed himself to ethnic unity and rendered help toward local production.

      “I did not feel tired even after working around the clock, as the service was for the public, rather than for feudal masters,” Phumtsog said. He joined the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 1958.

      Phumtsog’s son Dawa Tsering inherited the tradition of river-crossing on a bull-hide boat. At the age of 8, Dawa Tsering began to go to primary school in a town on the other side of the river.

      Reaching school was not easy for little Dawa Tsering, as he had to hold his boat and trek a dozen kilometers before getting to the ferry, while the fear of falling into the water always loomed large. He boarded at school and came home every three weeks.

      In the old Tibet, over 90 percent of Tibetans struggled for subsistence, and up to 95 percent were illiterate. Today, hunger and poverty is a thing of the past for people of all ethnic groups in Tibet, and the 15-year public-funded education is offered across the region.

      The custom of riding boats across the Yarlung Zangbo River finally ended when a bridge was built in 2016 as part of the poverty eradication efforts in the village.

      The river is no longer a barrier….

      1. baffling

        china took over tibet by force. military might. the people of tibet are not free, but under occupation from china. this is the reality ltr.

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