Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil

Five year inflation breakevens have risen tightly with oil prices, while accounting for inflation and liquidity premia implies a more gradual albeit more steady increase in implied expected inflation.

Figure 1: Five year inflation breakeven, 5 year Treasury minus 5 year TIPS (blue, left scale), 5 year breakeven adjusted for both inflation risk and liquidity premia, per DKW (red, left scale), both in %, spot price of oil (Brent) (black, right scale) in $/bbl. Source: Treasury via FRED, KWW per DKW, EIA via FRED, barchart.com, and author’s calculations.

The alternative calculations by KWW implies that inflation expectations have not surged as much as one might’ve thought — until the oil price increase starting in Q1.

83 thoughts on “Five Year Inflation Breakeven, Estimated Expected Inflation, and Oil

    1. Steven Kopits

      I don’t think oil is the only thing that matters. Financial management and governance quality also matter. But oil does matter. Jim has pointed this out as well.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Everyone agrees oil matters but you have indeed dismissed almost everything else. If you are going to bloviate about issues you do not understand as if you are THE expert – then try taking responsibility for what you have said. Never mind most of what you say is pure intellectual garbage. But come on Jim? Try Dr. Hamilton.

        Reply
      2. AndrewG

        About sanctions – Yellen’s remarks to Congress greatly emphasized Russian companies’ hampered ability to get important equipment, such as semiconductors. Not so much energy (though I didn’t watch all her remarks). But even if Russia were exporting as much energy as before in terms of foreign-currency expenditure, costs must be killing them right now. I wonder how much their energy industry relies on goods from abroad.

        Reply
  1. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senator-susan-collins-says-she-is-opposed-to-democrats-bill-aimed-at-protecting-abortion-rights/ar-AAWYSDQ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=cd95a3f7644446469ca6504fff4c8ab9

    Susan Collins says she does not support the Women’s Health Protection Act for a reason she totally made up. The bill would not mandate that Catholic hospitals perform abortions. So why does Senator Collins say it does? Oh yea – Mitch McConnell got to her again.

    Reply
  2. Bruce Hall

    May 6 Headlines:

    U.S. fuel prices surge faster than crude as exports tighten market
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-fuel-prices-surge-faster-051642958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    Diesel Prices Continue To Climb With New $6.21 Record
    https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/05/06/diesel-prices-continue-new-6-21-record/

    Oil From U.S. Strategic Reserve Heads for Europe Amid Global Supply Crunch
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-18/texas-port-sends-strategic-u-s-oil-to-europe-amid-supply-crunch

    Biden suspends oil-drilling leases in Alaska’s Arctic refuge
    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/biden-suspends-oil-drilling-leases-alaska-s-arctic-refuge-n1269270

    Refinery closures decreased U.S. refinery capacity during 2020
    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48636

    Interior to remove millions of acres from possible oil development in National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska
    https://www.yahoo.com/now/interior-remove-millions-acres-possible-040100674.html

    • US is making new oil exploration more difficult through harsher environmental regulations and permitting
    • US is placing new Alaskan oil exploration off limits
    • Grain shortages looming worldwide; US pushing to increase corn usage as fuel
    • Refineries in US not producing enough diesel fuel
    • Goods transported by diesel or aviation fuel (planes, trains, trucks) will reflect higher costs

    Other than that, things look pretty good in a few years, unless of course global warming aka climate change.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      Gee – you have been promoted. Not working for Kelly Anne anymore as you are chief spinmeister for Vlad Putin!

      Reply
    2. pgl

      I’m taking the 4th link which was published back on June 1, 2021 so when Bruce Hall calls it today’s headlines – it was just another way this troll does Sarah Palin lying (lies that are so stupid they offend conservatives):

      ‘After conducting a required review, Interior said it “identified defects in the underlying record of decision supporting the leases, including the lack of analysis of a reasonable range of alternatives” required under the National Environmental Policy Act, a bedrock environmental law. The remote, 19.6 million-acre refuge is home to polar bears, caribou, snowy owls and other wildlife, including migrating birds from six continents. Republicans and the oil industry have long been trying to open up the oil-rich refuge, which is considered sacred by the Indigenous Gwich’in, for drilling. Democrats, environmental groups and some Alaska Native tribes have been trying to block it.’

      Gee I did not know Bruce’s white surpremacy went so deep that he would sacrifice not only American Indians but all the animals in Alaska. Hey Bruce – I hear you need cheap oil as you cannot cook your garbage food without it.

      Reply
      1. Bruce Hall

        I did that just for you, Lucy. Just to see if you are so focused on technicalities that you can’t focus on the bigger picture. Verdict: you can’t resist. You must be a mid/low-level lawyer working for the Federal Bureau of Minutia.

        Federal land in Alaska is 61.8% of the state which is the largest in the Union. A blanket ban on a large piece of that state is not about Native Americans or wild animals. It’s just another enviro-terrorist tactic to ban fossil fuels with a “guilty until proven innocent” approach. Connect all of the dots and you get the picture of Biden’s administration doing its utmost to save the planet by crippling America’s energy sector and, in the process, causing significant inflation that will harm the lower income Americans.. Of course, that’s not a concern of the Northeastern liberal monied elites. Are you even aware of how large 19.6 million acres is? That’s 30.6K sq. mi. or the size of Maine.

        You might want to educate yourself on how much land a typical oil drilling site actually uses.
        https://www.americangeosciences.org/geoscience-currents/land-use-oil-and-gas-industry
        New drilling technology has led to major advances in reducing industry’s footprint on the North Slope. In 1970, a typical drill site utilized 20 acres, reaching a subsurface area of 502 acres or a surrounding area of .08 square miles, or 1 mile out from the drill pad. Modern drill sites can now be limited to six acres, with a subsurface drillable area of 32,170 acres or a surrounding area of 50.3 square miles, or eight miles out from the pad.
        https://www.akrdc.org/oil-and-gas

        But, hey, “racist” and “liar” is the best you can come up with when you really have nothing.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          You write rightwing stupid garbage for little ole me? Oh golly gee! BTW – you are a racist and you do lie a LOT. But you are incapable of taking personal responsibility.

          Reply
          1. Bruce Hall

            “Liar”… “racist”. You’re sort of stuck trying to come up with actual debatable points, eh?

          2. pgl

            “You’re sort of stuck trying to come up with actual debatable points”

            Excuse me little troll. I have exposed just about everyone of your questionable sources and your misrepresentations of your only decent links. Wake me when you actually write something worth debating.

        2. pgl

          “Federal land in Alaska is 61.8% of the state which is the largest in the Union.”

          Which you would lease to Big Oil for a mere 12.5% of oil revenues even though everyone who gets the economics of this issue would note the market rate is more than twice that. Hey Brucie – how much is Big Oil paying you for your incessant garbage?

          Reply
          1. Bruce Hall

            Which you would lease to Big Oil for a mere 12.5% of oil revenues….

            That’s been the going rate for decades regardless of the market price of oil. But, yes, that’s a problem when you have a government trying to spend $trillions more than the revenue coming in. Most people would call that profligate spending “bad governance”, but you’ll just call the going rate “racist” and “liars” even though it makes no sense because… that’s your standard comment.

          2. pgl

            “That’s been the going rate for decades regardless of the market price of oil.”

            OK – THINK about this for a second. The higher the price of oil – the greater the portion of this price that accrues to Big Oil in terms of economic rents. Which means the percentage should go UP (not down) when oil prices rise.

            Oh wait – I made a BIG mistake. I asked Village Idiot Bruce Hall to THINK. He of course is incapable of thinking.

        3. pgl

          “Drilling and hydraulically fracturing a well requires several acres around the well for the drilling rig, drill pipe storage, trailers for equipment and staff, pump trucks, data vans, and pits or tanks for water and waste storage. Once drilling is finished and the well is producing oil or gas, much of the drill site can be reclaimed.”

          We are supposed to be impressed with which does not count the damage done to the land around the drilling rig. I guess you have never seen an oil spill in your little sheltered life. n

          Keep bringing us this flak which shows how little you really know about this issue. After all – we know you are STUPID but DAMN!

          Reply
          1. Bruce Hall

            Aw, come on Lucy. If there is a spill at a drilling site on federal land, it has to be cleaned up. 6-8 acres for a 50-mile radius of oil extraction is pretty minimal disruption that can be returned to the wild when extraction is ended. I’d say the city of San Francisco is a bigger blight on the environment than Alaskan drilling. And the progressives there are just letting things get worse.

          2. pgl

            Bruce Hall
            May 8, 2022 at 1:22 pm
            Aw, come on Lucy. If there is a spill at a drilling site on federal land, it has to be cleaned up.

            We have a new nominee for dumbest comment ever. Bruce – it is not like getting those paper towels that Trump threw out in PR after Maria. I knew it – you have no effing clue what an oil spill is.

        4. Barkley Rosser

          Hey, Mary, quite contrary. Can you tell us the latest about your sex life with the Holy Ghost? Is that why there is blood all over that supposedly white as snow fleece of your little lamb?

          Reply
          1. pgl

            Did I say Bruce Hall has no clue about what oil spills really do. Well – he confirmed my suggestion with what may be the dumbest comment EVER:

            ‘Bruce Hall
            May 8, 2022 at 1:22 pm
            Aw, come on Lucy. If there is a spill at a drilling site on federal land, it has to be cleaned up.’

            I bet Brucie thinks that one of the rolls of paper towels that Trump tossed to Puerto Rican victims of Maria is all it takes to clean up an oil spill. Maybe the Village Idiot does not know the difference between oil and water. He is indeed THAT DUMB!

    3. Anonymous

      the president is ordering 60 million barrels of crude to replenish the strat pet reserve; for the 60 million released before the next 180 million barrels of crude which are going into product shipped as exports…… how high will wti be when the congress funds those?

      per 29 apr 2022 eia report the reserve is drawn 83 million barrels year on year

      us is a net exporter since march 2022 so fox news can quit complaining…… it is going to replace russian petroleum.

      distillate exports run 1 to 2 million barrles per day, so don’t complain about $6.29 per gallon diesel, usa is doing its part to keep the eu in petroleum!

      some countries would limit exports of products while the local prices are surging.

      some major us metro areas are short both diesel and jet fuel stocks.

      Reply
      1. Barkley Rosser

        Anonymous,

        Obviously this last point is what Putin should emphasize on Victory Day. I mean he does not have much else to celebrate. Yeah, looks like he has Kherson, although not clear what its status will be. But then there is Mariuopol, which he will finally get, although I forecast the resistance there will hang on long enough that he will not be able to claim full Victory there this coming Monday, which looks to be a massive embarrassment for him, although maybe he will be able to keep the majority of Russian population not really aware of how bad things are.

        Reply
        1. Barkley Rosser

          Apparently there were no flyovers for any of the Victory Day parades in at least four Russian cities, including Moscow. The claim was this was due to bad weather, but there was no bad weather in any of them apparently. Putin has made no new announcements, and reportedly the Moscow parade was shambolic, lots of poor quality marching. He knows he is in deep doo doo. No victory at all.

          Reply
  3. pgl

    That EIA link was also reported a year ago so how the eff can it be today’s headlines?

    But can you at least be honest enough to note it talked about refinery closures when Trump was President. Which of course a troll like you blames on Biden.

    Bruce – your attempts at MAGA spin has gotten to be beyond stupid.

    Reply
  4. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-06/Chinese-mainland-records-374-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–19O4xb2Jr44/index.html

    May 6, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 374 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 374 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 356 linked to local transmissions and 18 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Friday.

    A total of 4,340 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Thursday, and 111,906 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 218,945, with the death toll at 5,153.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-06/Chinese-mainland-records-374-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–19O4xb2Jr44/img/61052c67248f4c5bbc70d98c2702fb38/61052c67248f4c5bbc70d98c2702fb38.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-06/Chinese-mainland-records-374-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–19O4xb2Jr44/img/65a040c97952476fa7190568ddc852bd/65a040c97952476fa7190568ddc852bd.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-06/Chinese-mainland-records-374-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases–19O4xb2Jr44/img/08655bc954f94d668705b8113ccdd5bb/08655bc954f94d668705b8113ccdd5bb.jpeg

    Reply
  5. pgl

    Bruce’s bullet point about corn seems to be totally made up as he provided not even one of his patented rightwing spin links. But of course his last link ended with some wisdom he was hoping no one would read:

    “World events have predictably led to industry lobbyists and the lawmakers they bankroll calling for new domestic oil and gas leasing and production, especially in Arctic Alaska, and in the name of ‘energy security,’ ” Kristen Miller, conservation director for the Alaska Wilderness League, said in a statement. “In reality, the answer to energy security does not lie beneath the thawing Arctic permafrost but in accelerating the shift to clean, renewable sources of power generation.”

    One environmental group said the Biden administration’s move didn’t go far enough, however, because it still allows for continued oil development in the reserve.

    “Addressing the climate emergency means ending new fossil fuel extraction, and we can’t keep going in the opposite direction,” said Kristen Monsell of the Center for Biological Diversity.

    Look – this troll puts up a lot of links with an anti-Biden agenda but when people actually READS Bruce’s link, they quickly realize he is both dishonest and incompetent at spinning. Poor little Brucie!

    Reply
    1. Anonymous

      as some alaskans said in 1973 when the oil magnates got the lease on prudhoe bay…. ‘let them freeze in the dark’.

      that cry has been taken up by the green cabal…..

      what the greens need is reliable, clean, renewable …..

      otherwise we all be texas last winter.

      Reply
      1. Macroduck

        What everyone needs is clean, reliable, renewable.

        Texas last winter had nothing to do with renewable energy. Conventional energy sources failed and then people like you tried to shift blame to renewable energy.

        You’ve repeatedly lied about 2hat happened in Texas and repeatedly been called on it. Obviously, you pay-masters don’t care whether you are caught lying.

        Reply
        1. CoRev

          MD, “You’ve repeatedly lied about 2hat happened in Texas and repeatedly been called on it. Obviously, you pay-masters don’t care whether you are caught lying….Texas last winter had nothing to do with renewable energy. Conventional energy sources failed and then people like you tried to shift blame to renewable energy.”

          Renewable INTERMITTENT energy can not exist without storage and backup sources. Storage is still inadequate to cover extended periods of renewable reduced out put. TX back ups have been generation by conventional fossil and nuclear generators.

          The big lie has been that intermittent renewables can exist without those backup and storage sources. Claiming price comparisons without including those backup and storage sources in total pricing is lying.

          You need this big lie because in the real world of electricity generation, when renewables are included to the source mix real prices ALWAYS go up. Every solution to solve the intermittency problem adds costs.

          Reply
          1. pgl

            Why do you insist on capitalizing INTERMITTENT? Is it to hide from the fact that what you write is nonstop intellectual garbage?

          2. Anonymous

            to be fair, the media has misled about green energy from day one!

            when the fan locked up they blamed the low wattage on the grid….

            that froze ng pumps….

            it is as if material things don’t matter!

            models, invalid and unverified!

          3. Baffling

            “The big lie has been that intermittent renewables can exist without those backup and storage sources. “
            That is inaccurate and you use it as a strawman argument. That said, it still is useful to point out macroduck was accurate In stating the texas freeze was caused by the failure of fossil fuel energy sources. Nat gas failed to deliver, big time.

          4. CoRev

            Bierka asks: “Why do you insist on capitalizing INTERMITTENT? Is it to hide from the fact that what you write is nonstop intellectual garbage?” Obviously the answer is that those who claim to understand economics can’t admit that INTERMITTENCY is the cause and accordingly the solutions must be included in the price comparisons. And “You need this big lie because in the real world of electricity generation, when renewables are included to the source mix real prices ALWAYS go up. Every solution to solve the intermittency problem adds costs.”

            Just look at Baffled’s response. To translate for the ideologues: because renewables are intermittent source, and can’t be relied upon. When the REQUIRED back up sources can’t provide that back up on demand, then blame those back up sources for the failure.

            My consistent position has been to include the costs for these REQUIRED back up sources in the pricing formulas when comparing.

          5. baffling

            “When the REQUIRED back up sources can’t provide that back up on demand, then blame those back up sources for the failure.”
            nat gas was not the required back up when texas froze. it was considered the PRIMARY electricity source. and it FAILED. its like talking to a dead tree with you corev. you simply do not accept what happens in the real world. kind of like blaming some unknown drug on your clogged arteries, rather than a lifetime of poor eating choices and lack of exercise. you still cannot even accept your heart attack was self inflicted.

          6. pgl

            CoRev
            May 9, 2022 at 5:02 am

            Could someone send the professionals over to CoRev’s place as this man has gone truly insane – as in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest insane!

          7. CoRev

            Baffled: once claimed the solution to solving the INTERMITTENT gas problem was more INTERMITTENT renewable sources. Baffled has also claimed that INTERMITTENT renewable sources were cheaper than those ole back up/primary (depends on the day) fossil fueled sources.

            While “My consistent position has been to include the costs for these REQUIRED back up sources in the pricing formulas when comparing.”

            Hypocrisy and associated virtue signalling to their fellow big lie supporters are what got Texas and the world into this growing electricity/energy problem.

          8. pgl

            “CoRev
            May 9, 2022 at 5:02 am
            Bierka asks: “Why do you insist on capitalizing INTERMITTENT? Is it to hide from the fact that what you write is nonstop intellectual garbage?”

            Bierka? Dude – you have totally lost your marbles. Please go troll somewhere else – maybe some rightwing cite where people do not know you are insane.

          9. macroduck

            The utility shutdown in Texas had nothing to do with renewable energy intermittency. So you are really just changing the subject.

            Renewable energy intermittency is the new rightwing howl meant to obscure the reliability of hydro power generation and offshore wind. So you are really just lying about lying.

          10. CoRev

            MD says: “The utility shutdown in Texas had nothing to do with renewable energy intermittency. So you are really just changing the subject.” and “Renewable energy intermittency is the new rightwing howl meant to obscure the reliability of hydro power generation and offshore wind.” Thinking, knowledgeable energy people have been telling us from the beginning or solar and wind renewable sources of their intermittency problem. So it is you who is really just changing the subject.

            As I already pointed out: “Hypocrisy and associated virtue signalling to their fellow big lie supporters are what got Texas and the world into this growing electricity/energy problem.”

            Even Baffled accidentally tells the truth: “nat gas was not the required back up when texas froze. it was considered the PRIMARY electricity source…. Yet, Baffle, you, and so many others still want that primary source replaced with intermittent renewables sources.

            Intermittent renewables can not be used without those stable sources. Renewable sources pricing MUST include the costs to maintain the backups and all their other unique costs.

          11. baffling

            Corev, repeat after me. natural gas failed during the texas electric failure. again. natural gas failed during the texas electric failure.

            so natural gas has shown itself to be intermittent and unreliable. according to corev, it should also have a backup, and we need to price in that cost. so how much will natural gas electricity increase once we account for its unreliability and cost of redundancy? how much more expensive will we make natural gas as well? just following the logic corev has presented here. natural gas should follow the same rules as you expect of renewables. so what is the true cost of natural gas, when factoring in its backup? it certainly showed a lack of reliability at times.

          12. Barkley Rosser

            CoRev,

            Well, good to know we do not have to worry about you doing any of that “virtue signalling” We can count on you to continue with your INTERMITTENT vice signalling that you are so good at, :-).

          13. CoRev

            Baffled asks: ” so what is the true cost of natural gas, when factoring in its backup? it certainly showed a lack of reliability at times.” The answer is simple. The new price is high enough to drive Baffled to a non-gas-based electricity plan, when prior Baffle’s cheaper plan was gas-based.

            And why did those ole prices go up? https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-signs-ercot-reforms-power-grid-weatherization-legislation-into-law
            Why would ERCOT not have done this before the DEATH CAUSING power failure? This answer is, because they listened to people like Baffled, Bierka, macroduck, etc. who believe and repeatedly cited the big lie that INTERMITTENT renewables were cheaper than traditional electricity sources. The big lie is and has never been true except by ignoring all the costs needed to deliver their electrons.

            ERCOT has ignored the “R”-reliable need in its name. This is due to accepting the repeated claims of the big liars.

            BTW, how desperate are those who claim: “it (gas) was considered the PRIMARY electricity source. ” and it was considered primary because INTERMITTENT renewables failed. After their failure the vast bulk of electrons provided to the Texas grid were from fossil and nuclear fueled power plants. But continuing to blame the failure on these REQUIRED and primary source is idiocy.

          14. baffling

            “and it was considered primary because INTERMITTENT renewables failed.”
            no. it was considered primary. the renewables had not failed. they were not planned on being online at the time. it was a scheduled down time. the nat gas was on a scheduled up time. corev, you are so dishonest about what happened in texas.
            Corev, repeat after me. natural gas failed during the texas electric failure. again. natural gas failed during the texas electric failure. why are you in so much denial about reality? are you having another coronary event?

        2. CoRev

          Baffled, you are so dishonest about what happened in Texas. Your cognitive dissonance is showing. It’s hard to admit when your policies are wrong.

          Be assured the voters are not suffering from cognitive dissonance.

          Reply
          1. Baffling

            Corev, everything i have said about texas is accurate. The reports are out and very definitive. Natural gas was supposed to be a primary provider of electricity, and it failed to deliver, leading to a cascade of energy failures. Why do you choose to go with misinformation rather than acknowledge the truth. It is people like you that are driving the nation off the cliff. Rather than admit you are wrong, you simply double down. Just like your inability to acknowledge your own faults in having clogged arteries. That heart attack was somebody elses fault, because corev is never wrong.

    2. Bruce Hall

      …when people actually READS Bruce’s link, they quickly realize he is both dishonest and incompetent at spinning

      So, Lucy, your take is:
      • The Biden Administration is not making oil exploration more difficult
      • The Biden Administration is not placing new Alaskan oil exploration off limits
      • The Biden Administration is not trying to divert more corn to the production of fuel
      • Refineries in the US are producing plenty of diesel fuel
      • Goods transported by diesel or aviation fuel (planes, trains, trucks) will not reflect higher costs

      Good to know you got all of that from those links.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        More bullet points from our Klass Klown. Look – no one should respond to your little Powerpoint presentations as Bill Gates is having his attorneys draft law suits against you from defamation of his products. Now if you can actually provide a single credible analysis that supports your intellectual garbage – that might be different but to date you have failed miserably.

        Reply
          1. pgl

            I’m responding to nothing from you – nothing besides one stupid lie after another. Seriously Bruce – have you not embarrassed your poor mother enough already?

      2. Barkley Rosser

        Maey, Mary, Mary, when are you going to give up on this “Lucy” schtick? It is truly infantile. BTW, in the meantime, are you and the Holy Ghost going to get married anytime soon, Mary?

        Reply
          1. Barkley Rosser

            pgl,

            I don’t think so, but I could be wrong. It is not a big deal, but my memory is that he just popped up with it at some point out of nowhere. What happened then is that I challenged him on it, noting that it made no sense and had no humor or point. Why that name I asked? He then did make some reply, which may be why you think he thinks I put him up to it, but his reply made no sense. I do not even remember what was in it. But it did not slow him down and he got really into it, so I just shut up. But as he has kept up with this increasingly vacuous and silly and infantile nonsense, I decided to turn the tables on him. He wants to continue calling you “Lucy” for no clear reason, well, hey he can be “Mary” as well.

            I am not going to repeat it, since it might just get him going, but someone whose fake name begins with an E and ends with a d at least uses your initials in his made up name for you, with it having an implication of you crying a lot like a famous opera figure. That is sort of annoying, but I grant at least there is a shred of wit to that. But this “Lucy” thing has just nothing to it. The only thing it makes me think of is the character from Peanuts who likes to pull the football up after convincing Charlie Brown he can kick it and she will not do that. But I have not seen him accusing you of doing anything like that. It is a silly name with nothing to it.

          2. pgl

            Barkley Rosser
            May 9, 2022 at 5:51 pm

            Thanks for that explanation. It is like everything else with Bruce. He makes one pointless lie after another and then just keeps repeating the same stupid lie over and over. Most blogs would have banned this worthless troll by now but I guess Menzie allows this idiot to stay so we can just mock his incessant stupidity.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            pgl,

            The other person who comes to mind with “Lucy” is Lucille Ball of “I Love Lucy” fame. She was not only a red head but was accused of having Communist sympathies or connections. So maybe that is what is up with Bruce’s pet moniker for you: he wants to hint you are a red headed commie, :-).

    1. pgl

      TO: Republican Study Committee members
      FROM: Chairman Jim Banks

      That is your credible source? WTF? No one you cannot find a single gay guy named Lucy to date you. Most gay people have IQs above the low teens.

      Reply
    2. pgl

      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/house-science-panel-adds-climate-denying-members/

      House Science Panel Adds Climate-Denying Members
      Some of the committee’s new members reject climate science altogether, even as other conservative lawmakers have softened their skeptical views to appear more reasonable. On Friday, the committee announced the appointment of six new members.

      Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who was elected to Congress this fall, said in October as a state senator that climate change is “leftist propaganda.”

      “I believe that climate change in this country is largely leftist propaganda to change the way Americans live and create more government obstruction and intrusion in our lives,” Banks said at a candidates forum in Indiana, the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette reported.

      His rejection of the basic science of climate change, which skeptics like Smith concede is happening, was echoed by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). Biggs, the former president of the Arizona state Senate, said on the campaign trail this fall that the climate isn’t changing.

      “I do not believe climate change is occurring,” he responded to a candidate survey from the Arizona Republic. “I do not think that humans have a significant impact on climate. The federal government should stop regulating and stomping on our economy and freedoms in the name of a discredited theory.”

      —–

      Bruce Hall wants us to believe Jim Banks is some sort of authority on this issue. Now can someone be that incredibly stupid? Yep – Bruce Hall is THAT STUPID!

      Reply
    3. Barkley Rosser

      Hey, Mary, here is some more spin for you. Try to change your diapers next time before you get it on with the HG. Your infantilism is showing a bit too much.

      Reply
      1. pgl

        Jim Banks is the ultimate climate change denier. Bruce Hall wants us to take this Klown seriously?????

        Reply
  6. pgl

    My Lord – Kudlow the Klown used to be the chief economic advisor to the President even if he knows nothing about economics. Well at least his 10 minute rant did not address economics at all:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kudlow-the-biden-admin-ought-to-be-ashamed-of-itself/ar-AAX0bKL?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e79f4d6a136e48c0a2280fdc7cc58567

    Gee the leak of the Alito memo was bad, bad. Never mind that the Alito memo is telling us the rights of women will be set back to the 18th century. I guess Kudlow thinks telling women they are the slaves to creepy guys like him is good, good.

    Gee – there are peaceful protests. Ah yes – they will turn violent just like those BLM and Antifa thugs on 1/6/2021 tried to kill the Vice President.

    Oh no – the Klown did read the copy from Faux Business News on the economic statistics. Of course it was the past mistakes of which President? Not Trump of course as he had the best economic advisors ever. Cough, cough.

    Reply
  7. David. O’Rear

    Why isn’t there more being said about the return to normalcy, by which I mean inflation and unemployment moving in opposite directions?
    During the depression (the sharp, prolonged drop in prices and output, ca. 2008-10), we were hoping to generate inflation, because we know how to deal with inflation. A few years later, more deflation, so the mantra became, “overshoot, then cope.”

    Now we’re here, so why all the long faces? Curbing inflation is the easy bit; we’ve done it before.

    Reply
      1. pgl

        Oh yes – those dumb Gerald Ford WIN buttons. I guess you are too stupid to know the zeal to use tight monetary policy led to the 1975 recession which led to Ford losing the White House during the 1976 election.

        Reply
    1. AndrewG

      “Curbing inflation is the easy bit; we’ve done it before.”

      It’s not the easy bit. It can hurt, a lot. And it has major political ramifications too.

      I’d love a soft landing but I’m not betting on it (anymore). But great that the macro textbooks are right again, I guess?

      Reply
  8. dilbert dogbert

    I was thinking of the huge coal rolling trucks are gonna be a drug on the used car market!!!

    Reply
  9. pgl

    That draft Alito opinion overturning Roe actually included:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/let-s-unpack-the-chilling-phrase-domestic-supply-of-infants-in-the-supreme-court-s-draft-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/ar-AAX1wjH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=00a9379a88134c64baccc7a7798401bf

    “whereas the domestic supply of infants relinquished at birth or within the first month of life and available to be adopted has become virtually nonexistent.”

    So Alito considers women just baby factories who need to increase production so rich couples can adopt a baby? What a pig!

    Aren’t there babies abroad who could be adopted? Oh right – they are not WHITE babies and Alito and his ilk are part of MAGA.

    Reply
  10. Bruce Hall

    Interesting how the more Biden puts up obstacles to fossil fuels, the costlier they get.
    https://barr.house.gov/_cache/files/1/7/17ec008b-f7ea-49e6-b614-ea9b4dd12d6f/16871653E745FF6D04D065F4E6DE8623.a-promise-kept-biden-s-war-on-energy-final-002-.pdf

    The argument that claims Biden’s actions are not causing fossil fuel prices to rise of course ignores the message to corporations and investors that efforts to expand fossil fuel extraction are not welcomed and will be resisted by the federal government. While this may not impact present leases (although the hoops to jump through are multiplying), some companies are simply letting those leases remain inactive. That does not portend well for the future of US fossil fuel production.

    2022-23 will probably see fossil fuel production increase in the US simply because some dormant leases from 2020 will begin producing again to take advantage of current high prices. But longer term, the Biden Administration is counting on wind and solar power to replace fossil fuels in a smooth transition. Don’t count on it. To do that, output from wind and solar would have to increase each year by the present output of those sources. That’s a lot of land and a lot of grid expansion. It’s also a gigantic eyesore in the making.

    Nuclear power is still the least disruptive alternative to fossil fuels, requiring far less land and far less expansion of grid connections. It is also far less variable and far more durable.

    Reply
    1. pgl

      TO: Republican Study Committee members
      FROM: Chairman Jim Banks

      Again with this BS from a nutcase climate change denier. I trust you saw what I wrote about this Klown earlier. And you repeat this intellectual garbage?

      You may whine like the little baby you truly are when we call you a liar but then you keep reposting dishonest garbage like this over and over.

      You are the most blatant liar here – everyone knows it. So just own up to the obvious.

      Reply
    2. AndrewG

      “But we [the Republican Study Committee] decided to take a closer look. Biden promised a War on Energy. 15 months into his presidency, gas prices reached an all-time high. Is that because Joe Biden actually kept a promise?”

      Uh, no. Prices are up due to the war. This is dumb partisan BS. You acknowledge there isn’t much short-term effect of Biden’s pre-war energy policies, and yet you still share the dumb partisan link that is trying to make the link.

      I don’t use the dumbest stuff coming from Sen. Warren’s office like this. Not even pgl does.

      And last time I checked, Biden was pro-nuclear.

      Reply
      1. CoRev

        AG claims: “Uh, no. Prices are up due to the war. ” While totally ignoring Hall’s: “The argument that claims Biden’s actions are not causing fossil fuel prices to rise of course ignores the message to corporations and investors that efforts to expand fossil fuel extraction are not welcomed and will be resisted by the federal government.” And this on an economics blog?????

        Hypocrisy is rampant when Biden voters see the impact of the implementation of their policies under Biden, but can/will not accept the inflation they engendered just months after being elected. Only if inflation was the sole effect. Anyone noticing shortages, or the threats of them?

        Reply
        1. AndrewG

          And also, the document at the link? Did you read that?

          And also, my entire comment?

          And this on an economics blog?????

          Reply
      2. pgl

        “This is dumb partisan BS. ”

        EVERYTHING Bruce Hall writes is: (a) dumb; (b) partisan; and (c) BS. That is what he does 24/7.

        Reply
  11. Bruce Hall

    30-second ad front loaded, but then an interesting perspective on Russian oil and Biden’s policies.
    https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6305844432112#sp=show-clips

    Wait! It’s coming! pgl will shriek “Liar”! But, of course, anyone who isn’t a Biden shill is a “liar”. Well, let’s see the counterpoints where the lies are spelled out and the “truths” supported by references.

    Oh, here is what Kudlow was referencing. Good reading, pgl.
    https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/20/2022-08288/national-environmental-policy-act-implementing-regulations-revisions

    Reply

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