Lyman Sit-Rep

From ISW (8:30pm ET):

Order of battle (limited) in Lyman salient/pocket.

Source: Militaryland, accessed 9/30/2022, 6:45PM Pacific.

From ISW:

Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours. Russian forces continued to withdraw from positions around Lyman on September 30 as Ukrainian forces continued to envelop Russian troops in the area.[8] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and Russian war correspondents stated that Russian forces still control Lyman but have withdrawn from their positions in Drobysheve (around 6km northwest of Lyman) and Yampil (about 13km southeast of Lyman).[9] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces still control one road from Lyman to Torske, while Ukrainian forces have cut off the Drobysheve-Torske road in the Stavky area.[10] Russian sources also noted the increasing activity of Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups on the Svatove-Torske highway northeast of Lyman after reportedly crossing the Zherebets River.[11] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian artillery striking withdrawing Russian forces near Torske.[12] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in Dronivka and are now operating in the forests south of Kreminna.[13] Russian sources uniformly noted that Ukrainian artillery continues to interdict Russian forces’ single remaining egress route on the Kreminna-Torske road.[14]

I am curious how JohnH now assesses the military balance,  a month after his initial skepticism regarding the Ukrainian offensive.

116 thoughts on “Lyman Sit-Rep

  1. JohnH

    It does appear that the heretofore hapless Ukrainian forces have gotten their act together in the northeast.

    This is very different from the “Ukraine is winning” message that the mainstream media promoted for months…without substance. Now there is an actual basis for it.

    However, the much ballyhooed Kherson counteroffensive seems as bogged down as ever and has largely disappeared from the media narrative.

    1. pgl

      Hapless? Oh you were thinking of your pathetic defenses of Putin’s war crimes. You are full of malarky but what’s new?

      1. pgl

        He is very stupid but he makes up for it using big words that he doesn’t understand as in:

        heretofore hapless

        Hapless means unfortunate and yea it is unfortunate that Putin has decided to kill innocent Ukrainians. But wait JohnH WANTS Putin to succeed in his war crimes.

        Gee Johnny – without even knowing it, you finally made an accurate statement but not one you intended!

        1. Ivan

          I think he is just a classic troll – he gets a kick out of saying something contrarian to induce a response. He clearly has nothing meaningful to contribute.

    2. Macroduck

      Now, now… Y’all shouldn’t pick on Johnny for his lexical choices. He is, after all, working in his second language and anyway has probably been instructed to get “hapless” into his comments.

      Y’all know how search-engine optimization works, right? Well Johnny is doing something like SEO, only what Johnny’s doing been around a bit longer. Johnny is engaged in disinformation*. His Kremlin masters aren’t new to this, and have done their research on the impact of various English words, much as marketing researchers do. They’ve ordered Johnny to work “hapless” into comments about the Ukrainian military. What’s the poor boy to do? We may find his choice of the word ridiculous, but his masters don’t pay for independent thinking. (That’s clear enough from his comments on, well, from all of his comments, as a matter of fact.)

      * While I would love to blame Russia for the the presence of “disinformation” in the English language, it is probably not true that it has etymological roots in “dezinformatsiya”. No, the claim that Russia invented the word “disinformation” is rather like the claim that Russia invented television, radio and “Shoots and Ladders”. Those claims are just a manifestation of Russia’s national inferiority complex – kinda like Johnny’s claim that Ukraine’s military has been “hapless”.

    3. pgl

      Did Putin tell his little pet poodle that Russian troops are fine in Kherson? If so, he lied to you:

      https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-kills-few-dozen-russian-occupiers-in-kherson-ukraine-war-50273367.html

      Ukrainian forces struck at a large cluster of Russian military who had quartered in a college dormitory in the occupied city of Kherson, Kherson regional councilmember Sergey Khlan reported on Facebook, citing local eyewitnesses, on Sept. 28. He clarified that the dormitory had belonged to the Polytechnic College in Kherson, which is currently being used as large-scale housing for Russian occupying forces. “Over a few dozen,” Khlan wrote, stating the number of Russian soldiers presumed killed int he attack. The official also noted that Russians fear approaching the building, as detonations may continue. Ukraine is keeping almost the entirety of Kherson Oblast under fire control, Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Operational Command South, said in mid-September. According to her, in the south of Ukraine, Russian units are sandwiched between the Armed Forces and the right bank of the Dnipro river. The invading troops are being offered a chance to surrender under the auspices of international humanitarian law, or to return home.

      Hey Johnny boy – it is easy to sound brave as you sit in the Kremlin licking Putin’s boots. Try getting a gun and going to the front line of the fighting since you want to see Ukrainians die. Oh wait – you just a little cowardly pet poodle. Never mind.

    4. Barkley Rosser

      JohnH,

      Oh, the successful sweep of Russian forces out of nearly all of Kharkiv oblast recently was “hapless”? Or is your recognition that the Ukrainians might actually be winning dating back at least to that.

      Regarding Kherson, where the Ukrainians are blocking all information coming out, yes, things seem to be bogged down. But note that probably why the northeast counteroffensive has been so successful is that by loudly bragging about the forthcoming counteroffensive in Kherson, which continues with the most important conquered city for Putin to hold, apparently induced him to move lots of troops from the northeast down to Kherson. So, he may still be holding the line there, but things are falling apart elsewhere, with the only place his forces have made any gains being near Bakhmut, but with these amounting to meters and them failing to actually take this not too important location even after three months of trying.

      Latest reports from Russian sources have Ukrainian troops now in control of most of Lyman and all the villages around it. At most only a few hundred Russian troops in the north central part of the city. The Ukrainians will have it shortly, opening the door to a major advance in northern Lugansk/Luhansk. Putin is looking at total embarrassment after his awful speech and show with these annexations, which are about to go down the toilet.

      BTW, based on what I hear out of Moscow, local TV likes to show “advances,” which may explain the othewrise hard to explain pattern of continually attacking the worthless Bakhmut, even though they fail to take it. But their attacks do provide some “gains,” even if just a few meters by day. As it is, apparently when these reports are shown, they always show the same photo of the same cannon somewhere firing off.

      What is too bad is that Putin is going to cause so many more people to diebefore his clearly coming serous defeat leads somebody to finally throw the bum out.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Just how seriously stupid are you, Anonymous? Are you really competing with CoRev for dumbest commenter on this blog?

    5. Noneconomist

      Hey John: you’d be better off self flagellating instead of babbling your usual silliness, thus inviting others to verbally smack you around at will.
      You’ve clearly moved beyond “red headed stepchild” status.

    6. baffling

      “It does appear that the heretofore hapless Ukrainian forces…”
      well john, if they are hapless, then what derogatory word can you come up with to describe the russian forces? they are supposed to be the superior fighting force in this battle, and they are getting pushed around by a hapless force. incompetent russian leadership has simply sent a middling russian force, at best, to the slaughter. thousands of russians are dying for an unjust cause. they will not be remembered as heroes or victors. that will be the Ukrainian forces. the russian dead will be remembered as rapists and murderers for decades to come. and the russian military leadership and its soldiers are now viewed as meek and weak. to top it all off, the idiot putin has almost certainly pushed ukraine into the arms of nato, quickly. this will not end well for the russians.

  2. pgl

    Republicans who were for cutting FEMA when a hurricane rocks a blue state now are all in favor of FEMA aid to Florida:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/hurricane-ian-showcases-gops-disaster-aid-hypocrisy

    As Hurricane Ian ravaged south Florida on Thursday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) stood outside the U.S. Capitol at a press conference and made a vow to the victims. “We’ll do anything in our power to help them,” McCarthy said, responding to a question from a reporter about the impacts of the hurricane, and Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ability to help his state recover. As the GOP leader said this, he was flanked by dozens of members of his House Republican conference. Their presence added a new dimension to McCarthy’s statement: many of them have been on the record opposing hurricane relief packages—or lent their support to proposals designed to drastically reduce the amount of money the federal government spends on disaster relief.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Not all of them. Apparently Matt Gaetz has voted against increasing such aid in the wake of Hurricane Ian hitting Florida. Oh, such a principled man!

    2. baffling

      the money should be tied to puerto rico hurricane relief. why support some americans and not other americans? perhaps a dollar for dollar match?

      1. pgl

        I suspect this is Biden’s plan. Of course he needs Congress to go along. And yea – I do not trust Floridian Republicans.

  3. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hundreds-of-pounds-of-tnt-were-used-to-damage-the-nord-stream-pipelines-sweden-and-denmark-tell-the-un/ar-AA12t9D5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4ea65d644f6045839bd4bde15ff6931e

    Leaks that have badly damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines were caused by hundreds of pounds of TNT, Denmark and Sweden said in a joint report to the United Nations. The countries cited the latest development in a joint report to the UN Security Council on Friday, adding the explosions were a deliberate act, Denmark’s TV2 first reported.

    So this was a deliberate act after all. And who would do such a thing? Catch this line:

    But in a statement released on Telegram on Thursday, Moscow suggested that Washington had the most to gain from Nord Stream shutting down.

    Now we know Putin ordered this sabotage and then asked his lying pet poodle JohnH to blame the US.

  4. Macroduck

    Off topic, Systemic risk warning for the European financial system –

    Big Uh Oh:

    https://www.esrb.europa.eu/mppa/warnings/html/index.en.html

    Click on 2022 and read the top entry.

    The European Systemic Risk Board has till now (‘scuse me… has “heretofore”) issued warnings mostly about real estate markets in individual countries. This is its first EU-wide warning in its history. (ESRB is about a decade old.) Glad to see oversight agencies are on the job. Payment risk and collateral problems and liquidity problems and informational problems and risks to financial intermediation are just everywhere in Europe right now.

    While I would like to sit snug and smug here in the U.S. and say “Didn’t I tell you?”, I can’t because systemic risk doesn’t care a hoot about oceans, time zones or national borders.

    1. Macroduck

      Note the timing of the warning. Truss and Kwarteng may have more than a UK credit market melt-down to answer for.

      1. Macroduck

        Oh, and there’s this:

        https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/china-bank-dollar-yuan-currency-markets-economy-beijing-fed-hike-2022-9

        China may be preparing to do what the BoJ did, defend its currency. The threat of dollar selling follows a boost in reserve requirements for forward FX sales about a week ago. Not everybody thinks a focus on defending the yuan is a good idea:

        https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3194581/focus-chinas-long-term-growth-not-yuans-short-term-fall-top

        That is, of course, the underlying message of talk that China may choose to weaken, rather than defend, the yuan.

    2. Macroduck

      Heck, as long as I’m at it…

      What with so many economic and financial troubles to keep track of, some important issues may be overlooked. Lately, Asia’s financial press has reported growing concern about the yen, the yuan and their interaction, a concern which has not gotten much attention (that I’ve noticed) in the Western press.

      The BoJ intervened to shore up the yen on September 22, after “checking rates” on the 19th. That was the first interention in 24 years, definitely a signal that policy makers are worried about yen weakness. There are several reasons to be concerned about a weak currency, but the BoJ is maintaining a highly expansionary monetary policy, and currency weakness is one of the channels through which monetary policy operates; it’s probably not yen weakness in itself that prompted intervention.

      I don’t have a full understanding of the BoJ’s motive for intervening, but here’s what I suspect is a partial answer:

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UndH

      Yen weakness against the yuan accelerated around the beginning of March and the rate has become considerably more volatile. China, of course, has its own problems, including weak growth. While China’s trade surplus has expanded earlier this year (partly a reflection of weak domestic demand), recent performance hasn’t been great:

      https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade

      There is concern in the Asian financial press that China may see yen weakness as a problem and respond by weakening the yuan – combined with tightening capital controls to limit outflows. That would be destabilizing at a time when financial instability is already high. China has in recent decades aimed at stability in it’s financial and FX policies, and a shift from that approach toward maintaining growth would likely be a big shock for the region and the world. So maybe the BoJ had China in mind when it intervened to support the yen.

      The Fed’s role in all of this is obvious, I trust. Anyhow, seemed worth mentioning, what with China and Japan both being larger than last week’s headline champion, the UK. And the yen being the funding currency for all kinds of trades.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Very kind of you to ask. I’m still lurking around here. Today I was supposedly helping a relative not get screwed while getting a Samsung clothes washing machine fixed. The machine is 10 years old and it appears the suspension rods have worn out, which causes the machine to shake, and then, because of the shaking, continually “shift” back into rinse mode. He quoted a repair price of $458 dollars and beings that I don’t know what these parts are worth or a repairman’s standard rate for an hours worth of work is, I put up no protest when he gave this outrageous (to my ears) price quote.

          It seems I’ve found yet another duty in life I am worthless at.

          For whatever it’s worth, the repairman (who seemed of average intelligence) told us the two best brands currently are “Speedqueen” (that I have never heard of) and “LG”. That’s not an endorsement on my part, as I have yet to verify with my own research, but thought readers or those pondering getting a new clothes washing machine might find interesting.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          md,

          Maybe he got rehired for his old job teaching English in China, so maybe back there, :-).

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I’m very proud of the time I spent teaching in China, and the vast majority of my students there. Maybe if you felt more fulfillment from the work you’ve done, you wouldn’t spend so much time making insipid comments on other people’s blogs. I find it fascinating how little time you spend discussing both your current and former students. It suggests a lot as to how you approach teaching, and your clinical narcissism.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Hurray! Moses did not leave us after all! And still his same old self! Hooray!

            Of course, this was sort of like when Menzie ssaid maybe Steven Kopits was gone, so then he suddenly reappeared, although Menzie may well have been hoping he was gone whereas we know that Macroduck actually would have missed his “brother” if Moses had actually disappeard, :-).

    3. AndrewG

      Great series of shares, thank you. I doubt this is really about Truss/Kwarteng stupidity though. Wee Britain is too wee.

  5. pgl

    https://t.me/EmbUSA/1123

    Comment by the Russian Embassy in the United States

    We note the attempts by some U.S. legislators to put blame on Russia for the incidents that occurred on Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.
    Perhaps, they have a better view from the top of Capitol Hill. But if that is the case, they must also have seen the U.S. warships’ activities at the very site of the Russian infrastructure disruption just the day before. Or noticed drones and helicopters fly over there. Or observed U.S. Navy exercises with underwater explosives that have been conducted in the same area some time ago. Finally, they should have recalled the promises made by President Biden to “bring an end” to the Nord Stream 2 project.
    What is obvious to us is that those who ponder about the incident seem to forget to ask the main question: who benefits from the pipelines’ rupture? The answer is on the surface. The decades-long energy trade between Moscow and Europe has long turned into an eyesore for Washington strategists. Unable to offer a decent alternative to reliable and, no less importantly, cheap supplies of gas, the U.S. decided to “squeeze out” Russia as a competitor using non-market methods and sanctions. Washington is trying hard to get its allies hooked on an expensive and environmentally unfriendly “LNG needle”.
    ❗For our part, we insist on the need for a comprehensive and objective examination of the circumstances of the unprecedented attacks on Russian pipelines. To discuss this issue, the Russian Federation will convene an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council.

    Yep – this intellectual garbage had to be written by lying troll JohnH!

    1. baffling

      russians are gaslighting like professionals lately. it is a sign they know they re in a position of weakness.

      i heard latvia is expelling its russian ambassador for distribution of false propaganda. good for them.

  6. pgl

    Zelensky is better at this than Putin:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-counters-putin-event-staged-to-trumpet-russian-annexation-of-ukraine-regions-with-surprise-application-to-join-nato/ar-AA12s7WE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=1b242eeaf60c4a92aa6aff465bc24722

    Russian President Vladimir Putin signed treaties Friday to illegally annex more occupied Ukrainian territory in a sharp escalation of his war. Ukraine’s president countered with a surprise application to join the NATO military alliance. Putin’s land-grab and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s signing of what he said is an “accelerated” NATO membership application sent the two leaders speeding faster on a collision course that is cranking up fears of a full-blown conflict between Russia and the West.

    Vlad is losing but he continues to act like an idiot – just like his puppet Donald Trump.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Well, NATO will not let them in, not now at least while the war is still going on.

      I have a forecast for the final outcome of all this, insipid as it may be. Russia will keep Crimea while Ukraine gets all the rest, including the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk the Russians took in 2014. This will be with or without Putin as Russia’s leader. But I think it is what is going to emerge on the ground pretty soon militaritly, given the speed with which the Urko forces are moving forward on several fronts.

      But Crimea will be harder to take, with that narrow land bridge to the mainland. This is also the place where both the locals and the Russian population itself are more motivated to be part of Russia and fight to do so. When negotiations finally happen, Russia will have to be given something, and Crimea looks like the obvious place, especially if they are able to hold it militarily while losing elsewhere.

  7. Macroduck

    When the BoE announced that it would buy gilts to rescue the UK financial system, it amounted to a defacto delay in quantitative tightening. A few days ago, Menzie posted a figure which showed the level of UK sovereign debt issuance implied by planned quantitative tightening plus planned fiscal expansion under the Truss/Kwarteng budget oopsie (look at the addendum):

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/reserve-currency-status-is-no-vaccination-against-recklessness

    The Fed is already engaging in quantitative tightening, with the pace of that tightening accelerating. Running off the balance sheet is not the Fed’s only liquidity drain. Reverse repos are also a drain, so far a considerably larger drain than from asset holdings. RRPs also began earlier. Here’s the picture:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Um9J

    Check the green line for the liquidity change resulting directly from Fed operations, aside from the effect of rates. (Yes, RRPs and rate hikes go hand-in-hand, but they are not simply two expressions of the same operation. RRPs tie up ccollateral. Collateral is liquidity. Notice when RRPs picked up compared to when rate hikes commenced.)

  8. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/natural-gas-pipeline-between-bulgaria-and-greece-officially-launches/ar-AA12u19w?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a46214f7083843148342f94c665b5a20

    Oct. 1 (UPI) — The European Union on Saturday announced the launch of a new natural gas pipeline between Greece and Bulgaria, which it says will lessen the Balkan region’s dependence on Russian supplies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen lauded the completion of the pipeline during a ceremony in Sofia, hailing the event as a milestone for regional energy diversity.
    “Bulgaria used to get 80% of its gas from Russia, but that was before Russia starts a terrible war against Ukraine, an energy war against Europe,” Von der Leyen said. “This gas pipeline is a game-changer for both Bulgaria and Europe’s energy security. This project means freedom from the bridge of Russian gas. The interconnector can cover the entire gas consumption of Bulgaria and this is great news in such difficult times,” she added. The $235 million pipeline will deliver 3 billion cubic meters of gas per year, connecting Bulgaria to the Southern Gas Corridor and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline and enabling alternative supplies from Azerbaijan to reach countries in southeastern and central Europe, including Moldova and Ukraine.

  9. Anonymous

    looks like luxemberg in dec 1944.

    the russian federation is not on its heels like germans in1944.

    nor is lyman strategic as bastogne

    while us and nato ammunition stores are running low, irrespective of degradation of nato readiness

    1. Macroduck

      looks like more word salad

      comparing rrussia’s invasion of ukraine to wwii is a hollow trick

      which putin poodle are you?

      the one who is missing a shift key.

      1. Anonymous

        what is different about the rules of war between 2022 donbas and 1944 luxemburg?

        there were 5 statement up there no answer to them!

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Excuse me, Hopelessly Moronic “Anonymous,” but just which “5 statements” are you referring to? Wow, you are really seriously dumb, as well as bing a total stooge for Putin.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Whoa! Anonymous is not as smart as JohnH, who is sort of realizing maybe this is a moment to lay a little bit low. No, our supposed US military veteran is carrying water for Putin quite openly while not knowing how to spell “Luxemburg” (lrmore properly, “Luxembourg”). And if this does look like that place in Dec. 1944, then why are not the “Russian federation” (Federation) on its last heels and “lyman” not as strategic as “bastogne”?

      Probably the Russian Federation is not “on its last heels,” although Lyman looks to be fairly strategic, with its fall pretty much dooming Russian control of northern Luhansk (or “Lugansk” if you prefer).

      “us and nato ammunition stores” may be “running low,” but not nearly as low as those in Russia, with the nearly complete lack of them part of why current troops are running from the front and the poor new conscripts are being sent in with essentially zero training. Can’t waste any ammo on training those hapless guys.

      What on earth were you thinking when you posted this, Anonymous? Were you trying to prove that you might actually be stupider even than CoRev, your main rival here for stupidest regular commenter on this blog? I know, pgl thinks Bruce Hall is dumber, and maybe even JohnH. But while both of them are pretty darned dumb, you and CoRev easily beat both of them, I can assure you.

    3. Baffling

      Seems you are pretty inaccurate in your account of current ukraine and russian events. Russia is showing that it is a second world army which happens to have a stockpile of nukes. Russia better pray they do jot encounter a direct conflict with nato. It wont be pretty. Russian military is very disappointing.

  10. pgl

    The headline reads:

    ‘We’re Fucked’: Vladimir Putin’s ‘Great’ Russia Plan Just Went Up in Smoke in Lyman

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/were-fucked-vladimir-putins-great-russia-plan-just-went-up-in-smoke-in-lyman

    A day after Vladimir Putin summoned top officials to bask in the supposed glory of “great” Russia stealing Ukrainian land with sham referendums, his boasts fell apart in spectacular fashion on the battlefield as Russia’s defense ministry was forced to admit a key city deemed part of Russia was now in Ukrainian hands. “In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, the allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Lyman to more advantageous lines,” the defense ministry said Saturday in a statement published by RIA Novosti. The retreat came after thousands of Russian troops in the area were urged to surrender.

    “Military personnel of the Russian Federation! Ukrainian defense forces have captured Lyman. Further resistance is futile, you are surrounded. To surrender, you need to go to the nearest road or settlement, lay down your arms, wait for a representative of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and surrender with your hands up… Remember: your government does not need you. To them, you are cannon fodder,” the Ukrainian military said in a message blared for Russian troops in the strategic city. The city has served as a key military hub for Putin’s troops in Donetsk throughout the war, a fact that left some pro-Kremlin bloggers fuming on Saturday about Moscow apparently being completely unprepared. “In fact, Lyman has been surrendered and no additional forces arrived,” pro-Russian blogger Anatoly Shariy wrote on Telegram.

    1. Ivan

      So Russian commanders were faced with either pulling those troops back or losing them to surrender. They made the military correct decision.

    1. pgl

      “In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines,” the Russian Defense Ministry said, using the Russian name for the town. The ministry claimed that the Russian troops had inflicted considerable damage on Ukrainian forces prior to them being withdrawn, outnumbered. But it offered no evidence for this.

      Putin is so full of malarky!

    2. Barkley Rosser

      2slug,

      I hate to say it, but this increasing colllapse of the Russian military position in Ukraine and the super humiliation Putin is clearly now experiencing is not a “So much for Putin’s nuclear bluster.” Frankly, it strikes me that getting seriously humiliated will be putting him really seriously into a bad corner, which is exactly the sort of situation that might push him to using nukes out of desperation.

      The great irony is that it really does not look like using tactical nukes will really help him all that much. Yeah, he could take out a major Ukrainian city, but that would not actually change the military situation on the ground while without doubt totally turning the whole world against him, even the bloody Belarusans. Hitting the front lines, well, it would take using a lot of them to actually knock out enough of the Ukrainian front line for the pathetic Russian military to make any gains. Some observers are suggesting the best he could hope for is halting the Ukrainian advance, but with nearly zero chance of reversing direction, if for no other reason than the current crumby Russian military has no training in how to fight in a nuclear war zone. Maybe it would at least help out the Wagner Group to finally take the hapless Bakhmut.

      But, if the US did not just take out the Russian front line, or a lot of it, they would sink the Black Sea fleet in 35 minutes. Does Putin not understand this? Well, getting badly humiliated by a massive defeat in the near term might just make him lose that understanding. After all, his bloody speech was borderline insane. This is a very dangerous moment.

      1. AndrewG

        “Frankly, it strikes me that getting seriously humiliated will be putting him really seriously into a bad corner, which is exactly the sort of situation that might push him to using nukes out of desperation.”

        That’s the thing. It would be out of *personal* desperation, a cry for help. It wouldn’t help him at all on the battlefield, and probably hurt him there and certainly in the international community, such as his international support is. It’s crazy, but precisely because he’s a dictator in a precarious situation, there is still a risk he’ll use nukes.

  11. Macroduck

    Back on topic –

    Andrei Kolesnikov has a bleak view of the real decision Putin has made regarding “reserve mobilization” and it explains so many non-reservists have been scooped up. It’s a general mobilization and it’s far more than 300,000:

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-roulette-sacrificing-supporters-race-against-defeat

    This Andrei Kolesnikov is the Izvestia/NYT journalist, not the dead Russian general.

    “Died some, pro patria, non ‘dulce’ non ‘et decor’…”

  12. pgl

    https://www.politicususa.com/2022/10/01/doj-files-expedited-appeal-of-judge-cannons-special-master-ruling.html

    DOJ was always going to appeal Judge Aileen Cannon’s order establishing a special master. It was such an aberrant, bizarre, and unworkable procedure that there was no chance that DOJ would let the precedent be established. But as a matter of timing, if Judge Dearie was moving quickly and assertively, DOJ likely felt better served by having Dearie just mow through the documents and tangential issues and then appeal later. But on Thursday, Judge Cannon signaled that she’s not going to let Dearie do the job that she theoretically asked him to do. With two years of experience and grossly unqualified from the start, Judge Cannon overruled a Reagan-appointed judge who is esteemed by the NYC Bar. She even lengthened the timeline. So it was that late Friday, DOJ filed an expedited appeal of Cannon’s special master ruling. They need this case out of Cannon’s hands as soon as possible. This appeal could do it.

    I may have suggested that Judge Aileen Cannon is a bimbo but maybe the case is that she is a corrupt Trump lackey. Either way – it is time to pull the plug on whatever standing she may have in this matter.

  13. Barkley Rosser

    There is fresh news about Lyman. It looks that it is over and the Ukrainians have completely conquered it. If there are still any Russian troops in the city, they are not fighting, and either hiding and fleeing or surrendering. Question now is which is next: Svatove or Kreminna in Luhansk, or the final major town in Kharkiv oblast the Russians still hold, Borova? Quite likely all three will be in Ukrainian hands within the next few days, adding to Putin’s humiliation.

    Oh, and on the Kherson front that JohnH has gone on about so much, news is now coming out of there as well. Yes, major forward movement by the Ukrainians, apparently a major tank offensive on the northern part of the Kherson front.

    Putin’s chaotically failed mobilization may well bring a more serious collapse of the Russian military. Oh, the Wagner Group is still pounding idiotically away at the uinimportant Bakhmut, thereby providing some positive headlines for the Putin supporters in Russia. But if Putin is actually stupid enough to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, the Black Sea fleet will probably be sunk within 35 minutes all by conventional weapons, at least that is what General Hodges is saying, although JohnH may say Hodges does not know what he is talking about because of Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Oh, I shall add that my sources are telling out of Russia that indeed the condition of the Russian navy is much worse than has been publicized, although the ability of the Ukrainians to sink the largest vessel in the Black Sea fleet is probably a sign that nobody should be surprised at that.

    1. Ivan

      One interpretation of events (by ISW) is that Putin (who now seems to be giving direct military orders) has decided that the southern front is more important than the north. He certainly has been starving the northern frontlines in order to hold the line in Kherson Oblast and retain his idiotic offense against Bakhmut. The large numbers of basic military errors in this war has the signatures of an incompetent KGB agent trying to play general. Putin is the kind of arrogant idiot who would think he knew more than the generals – and then blame the generals for the failed outcomes of his mistakes.

      The main strategic defense worthy item in Kherson Oblast would be the waterline in Nova Kakhovka that takes fresh water from Dnipro river and pipe it to Crimea. However, they managed to get enough water to Crimea since 2014 when Ukraine blocked that line, so it cannot be that important.

      Nuclear weapons in the battlefield would be an idiotic tactical blunder. The Russians can’t even provide its forces with body armor and helmets, how would they provide them with equipment to operate in a nuclear battlefield? Ukraine on the other hand would get everything we have, and could operate safely in what would become a “no go / fry your testicles” zone for the un-equipped Russians.

      Nuclear weapons for terror (say on Kiev) would be an idiotic strategic blunder. Biden still have some serious restrictions on the help he is giving Ukriane; those would disappear the day after a nuclear terror attack. My guess is that both China and India has told Putin that they would stop ALL trade if he did that.

      Putin’s nuclear weapons talk is just a bullying strategy trying to get a ceasefire because he is losing ground. I am sure that leaders from around the world have already signaled to Putin what they will do if he use nukes – and he understands that it would be his (and possibly Russia’s) destruction. Imagine a Ukraine with missiles that could deliver a dirty bomb to Moscow after a Russian nuclear attack on Kiev.

      I agree that we are likely in the process of training Ukrainians in use of weapons that would be part of the next level of escalation if Russia uses nukes. It would almost certainly degrade Russian military to the extend that they no longer could suppress restive ethnic groups in their own country and would splinter the way USSR did.

      Thank God we have a competent President.

      1. baffling

        putin is moving to the south, because he now realizes that crimea will ultimately be in play. if they lose crimea, it will be a loss of massive proportions. shameful for the russians. i will be curious to see if the west reigns in zelensky if it sees crimea could fall. that will be an interesting line to cross in this war.

        latest news is that usa will provide longer range missiles (200 miles) to the ukrainians. with stipulations on targets. i guess they don’t want any incursions to the russian mainland, yet. but this is going to be really bad for the russians. and once again, could bring crimea into play.

        1. AndrewG

          “putin is moving to the south, because he now realizes that crimea will ultimately be in play.”

          I think you’re giving him too much credit. What explains the obsession with Bakhmut (as Ivan mentioned)? I don’t think there’s much strategy here, at least not much of a coherent strategy. Like Sideshow Bob, he keeps stepping on the business end of rakes.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            AndrewG,

            In the South, aside from Crimea, he seriously wants to hold Kherson, the largest city he has taken and which is located near the mouth of the crucial Dnipro River. But in fact it looks like the Ukros are now moving forward rapidly in Kherson oblast.

            The Bakhmut thing looks to be due to the Wagner Group operating there, at least somewhat independently and more competently thanother Russian military forces.

          2. AndrewG

            @BR

            That’s surely true, but sending a few top BTG’s to get trapped on the other side of the Dnipro was … an obvious trap they walked into, at least after HIMARS became a factor. That’s been the big story along the Dnipro for the past couple months.

            And why would anyone, including Wagner, focus on Bakhmut? Dark thought: Wagner is staying away from actual danger. Saving their own tails!

      2. AndrewG

        “Biden still have some serious restrictions on the help he is giving Ukriane; those would disappear the day after a nuclear terror attack. ”

        Yes. This, and Putin’s history of threats has amounted to zero. He’s backed away every time. He’s never serious – he’s just a blustering bully.

        “Putin’s nuclear weapons talk is just a bullying strategy trying to get a ceasefire because he is losing ground. I am sure that leaders from around the world have already signaled to Putin what they will do if he use nukes – and he understands that it would be his (and possibly Russia’s) destruction.”

        Yes. And Blinken said this in so many words on 60 Minutes.

        “One interpretation of events (by ISW) is that Putin (who now seems to be giving direct military orders) has decided that the southern front is more important than the north.”

        History moves fast. Russian-held Kherson is crumbling as we speak!

        “Thank God we have a competent President.”

        Incredible how low that bar is, since we are implicitly contrasting Biden (clearly competent) with Trump (far worse than incompetent). Trump thinks like Putin. Trump wishes he were Putin, wishes he had his “German” generals. Imagine if he did?

  14. Macroduck

    Wait… isn’t Lyman in Russia?

    I mean, Lyman was in Russia. It obviously isn’t in Russia any more. Finders keepers, right?

    1. Barkley Rosser

      MD,

      Ironically, it appears that because they had no electricity or anything else and were cut off from the outside, the people in Lyman had no idea that Putin was making them citizens of Russia until after the Ukrainians retook their city from Russian control.

  15. pgl

    Domestic terrorism in Iran:

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/19-killed-including-elite-guard-members-iran-attack-90815937

    State news: 4 elite paramilitary Guards killed in Iran clash
    Iran’s official IRNA news agency reports that an attack by armed separatists on a police station in a southeastern city has killed 19 people, including four members of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — An attack by armed separatists on a police station in a southeastern city killed 19 people, including four members of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported Saturday.

    The assailants in Friday’s attack hid among worshippers near a mosque in the city of Zahedan and attacked the nearby police station, according to the report.

    IRNA quoted Hossein Modaresi, the provincial governor, as saying 19 people were killed. The outlet said 32 Guard members, including volunteer Basiji forces, were also wounded in the clashes.

    It was not immediately clear if the attack was related to nationwide antigovernment protests gripping Iran after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman.

    Sistan and Baluchestan province borders Afghanistan and Pakistan and has seen previous attacks on security forces by ethnic Baluchi separatists, although Saturday’s Tasnim report did not identify a separatist group allegedly involved in the attack.

    1. AndrewG

      I have no insight on this, but sounds like they’re taking the opportunity as the central government is showing great weakness and is very distracted by shooting women who are showing too much hair.

  16. pgl

    Iran gives Russia drones to use against Ukraine but Germany counters that:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germany-says-it-will-supply-ukraine-with-air-defence-system-in-days/ar-AA12u3ps

    Germany will deliver the first of four advanced IRIS-T air defence systems to Ukraine in the coming days to help ward off drone attacks, its defence minister Christine Lambrecht said during an unannounced visit to Odessa on Saturday. As air raid sirens sounded in the port city above, Lambrecht held talks with her Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov in an underground bunker. Lambrecht had extended a visit to nearby Moldova for the meeting. “In a few days, we will deliver the very modern IRIS-T air defence system,” she told ARD television. “It is very important for drone defence in particular.” Ukraine has been seeing more attacks from Iranian-made kamikaze drones in recent weeks, costing lives and causing serious damage to infrastructure. It first emerged in May that Berlin was considering sending the IRIS-T surface-to-air defence system, which costs 150 million euros ($147 million) apiece.

    1. Ivan

      Lots of arms producers get a chance to test their weapons against whatever Russia has (either its own or weapons from other countries). Live testing important for making better defense systems.

  17. David S

    I hope that Zelensky has asked a few of his generals, and some American analysts, to help war game scenarios for Russian tactical nuke strikes. If I were Putin, I would undertake the following procedure for battlefield nuclear deployment to maximize psychological effects:
    -Make a show of sending 20 or 30 mobile missile launchers to the eastern border of Ukraine
    -Do some grandstanding on Russian TV about this action
    -Put Russian strategic forces on high alert–to signal resolve to the entire world—especially U.S. & China
    -Pick at least three targets in Ukraine in the Luhansk/Kharkiv/Kherson regions where Ukrainian forces are relatively concentrated
    -Launch strikes at these positions with 3-5 warheads each over the course of a few days
    -After the dust settles, do more grandstanding on TV about how these defensive strikes will continue until Ukraine stops fighting and cedes territory.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      David S.

      If Putin does that, the US will sink the entire Black Sea fleet in 35 minutes using only convenrional weapons.

      This would be quite justified given that in fact the US committed itself to protecting the “independence and territorial integrity” of Ukraine in the Budapest Accord of 1992, when Russia also promised to do that when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons.

      BTW, another reason it would be unwise of Putin to do that is that his troops are not remotely prepared to fight in a nuclear war environment. They have not been trained to do so and they have no equipment for it. Also, there are not that many major concentrations of Ukro troops. He would have to set off a lot of those nukes to really halt their advance, with a very high cost coming down on his hear. China and India will certainly abandon him.

      1. AndrewG

        “the US will sink the entire Black Sea fleet in 35 minutes using only conventional weapons”

        There’s a dark, mischievous, irrational part of me that wants to see that.

    2. AndrewG

      Just seems like this is so misguided. Outright threatening (limited) nuclear war by actual tac nuke mobilization would obliterate what’s left of Russian international support. Where is the corresponding threat from the West? Right, there is none. It’s pure bonkers, including the attempt at gaming Western psychology.

      But it’s not unlikely, as Putin is one of the worst strategists in recent history.

  18. Ivan

    “Russian troops fleeing Lyman appear to be moving to reinforce their lines 40 miles to the south around the city of Bakhmut.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/02/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#russias-latest-loss-further-imperils-its-forces-in-the-donbas-region

    That is absolutely insane. The last place that needs more troops is the failed offensive in Bakhmut. Maybe Putin is being influenced by his pals owning the Wagner group to make decisions that are or benefit to that private military and to detriment of Russia.

    1. AndrewG

      What are you talking about? Putin is a strategic genius, and Ukraine is a corrupt, Nazi-infested hell-hole.

      The war against the decadent, Satanic, gay West will be won in … Bake-huh-moot!

      Make Russia Great Again!

  19. pgl

    The Russian soldiers fled Lyman in a hurry:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-russian-troops-flee-lyman-ukrainians-rejoice-and-help-themselves-to-russian-supplies/ar-AA12vqNd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c3e5cbed9e974259ab39b1cb17d0f7b7

    Residents of the war-wrecked town of Lyman ventured onto the streets Sunday morning, enjoying an unusual quiet after months of fighting, and unsure about who was now in charge. The last Russian forces drove out of the city the previous night, trying to avoid getting encircled by the advancing Ukrainian troops. Not all the Russians made it out. Burning Russian vehicles and sprawled bodies of dead Russian soldiers remain on the roadsides outside the city. “We still can’t figure out who is what. Are those soldiers down the street Russian or Ukrainian?” wondered Dmytro Hontar as he watched dozens of Lyman residents help themselves to abandoned Russian stores on the city’s main square Sunday morning, carting off sacks of flour marked “Russian Humanitarian Aid.” “People are just looting everything,” he said, shaking his head, and, minutes later, joined the frenzy himself. “We had no aid from anyone here. We were just eating whatever reserves we had stockpiled before the war,” explained Tamara Kozachenko as she dragged two bags containing 5 kilograms of flour each. “The Russians, we didn’t even see how they vanished,” she added before asking, alarmed: “Is it final now?”

    1. baffling

      the cannibalism will continue in that party, as long as trump is a major player. i say let them battle it out.

      i will say, McConnell has about the same backbone as cruz when it comes to trump attacks on their wives. they are both pretty submissive to trump. nary a word from either of them in defense of their wives.

      1. pgl

        In McConnell’s case, his wife is Chinese. Trump’s attack on her was blatant racism. But it seems Senator Turtle did not object to that. Not exactly the most supportive husband.

    1. baffling

      damn you! i was going to post that link!
      it is a very interesting community. they are looking at a community as a system, making sure there are no weak parts. it is nice to see that community thrive after the storm. they built to south florida building standards, considered how and where to deal with floodwater, and as you noted moved their utilities underground. and they are just far enough inland that winds, even from a severe storm, will not be in the Cat 3 range. you can certainly design for no damage if you only have to deal with Cat 2 and less winds. and they can sell excess solar power back to the grid. nice work.

      1. CoRev

        And then the Sun didn’t shine during the storm or during the nights thereafter. No reference to backup source(s), and no actual output numbers during and since the storm. There is reference to individual home owners augmenting electricity supply with their own private panels and battery backups. At their own expense? Probably.

        Another BS article which lies about the reality of the solar experience. I’ll repeat what I’ve many times said, solar will never fulfill peak demand. This is especially true in this example.

        It’s OK if you are so desperate to believe this BS, but don’t demand others do so.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Oh this is completely hilarious. Sorry, boy CoRev, but the story is true. We get it that it just completely undoes piles of lies and stupidity you have spouted here for a long time. Ir really is time for you to STFUJ about solar power. Every time you post you reconfirm that indeed you are stupider than even the abysmal Putin troll “Anonymous,” so dumb he cannot even come up with a fake name for himself.

          I know, how about making yet more of a fool of yourself. Lie yet again that nobody has given you a list of Biden’s accomplishments and demand that somebody do so! Or, better yet, tell us again about all those awards you got for cleaning out toilets for the Apollo program.

          1. pgl

            Agree but you got to admire how this barking dog came up with a poetic first line. OK – the line had nothing to do with the issue but it was poetic.

          2. CoRev

            Barkley, misunderstanding reality claims the story is true. Are you saying that: The Sun didn’t shone during the storm or during the nights thereafter? Or are you saying the article references backup source(s), and has solar actual output numbers during and since the storm. We can probably agree that the article references individual home owners augmenting electricity supply with their own private panels and battery backups. At their own expense. Which BTW adds cost to the supply of electricity to that individual home.

            BTW,why are you lying about what I have requested? Repeatedly, it has been a list of Biden’s SUCCESSFUL POLICIES. That’s not accomplishments nor unmeasured legislation.

            There is a long list of his failed policies. Why the need to lie about his successful polices? Oh, never mind I just described why. Plus in just over a month the voters will tell you.

          3. Ivan

            The right wing has a popular saying: “When faced with facts that destroy your narratives, deny those facts”. There is always something you can say to keep yourself deluded.

          4. Barkley Rosser

            CoRev,

            Read the bloody link you worthless lying POS.

            It is true, and you are hopelessly lying and reconfirming you are the stupidest commenter here.

          5. CoRev

            Barkley, I read the link and pointed out the FACTS left out of the article. Do you actually believe that without the Sun shining that the solar farm provided enough electricity to fulfill 100% of demand? And that’s only a sample of the article’s discrepancies.

            Are you so desperate to believe the lies of solar to ignore the obvious weaknesses? The EU is living your renewables dream. Compare their costs vs ours.

          6. Barkley Rosser

            So, CoRev, desperate to salvage something out of all your lies and stupidities, just what is your explanation of how this totally solar-powered community got through the hurricane without any loss of power whatsoever while all around it every other community lost power?

          7. CoRev

            Barkley asks even another patently stoopid question: ” just what is your explanation of how thiscommunity got through the hurricane without any loss of power whatsoever while all around it every other community lost power?” The GRID to which they were attached did not go down, thereby supplying the BACKUP power that was needed to augment the reduced solar and battery power.

            Clearly, the solar panels output was reduced due to the rain and clouds. BTW. if you think that this development is ” totally solar-powered ” then you are dumber than even I thought. “When the sun goes down and the solar plant is not generating energy, Babcock Ranch will pull electricity off the grid from the closest FPL natural-gas power plant.https://babcockranch.com/solar-works-babcock-ranch/

            Ideology trumps common sense, even again. Barkley is exemplary of this, but many others here also confirm this fault. And, why that anger at being questioned?

          8. baffling

            covid, you are the one artificially arguing that this development is off the grid. nobody is saying that here. they are saying that much of their power comes from their own solar panels and storage systems. if they access other power elsewhere, so what? the reason they can access that power is because the development was built with these issues in mind. this includes design against hurricane events, such as utility lines below ground to minimize downed power lines. in other parts of Florida, where power is out, it is not strictly speaking a grid failure. there is power in the system. they just cannot transmit it to the homes, because of downed power lines. this is not even a renewable feature. it is a resiliency feature. these are just some of the many upgrades that are helpful in a modernized power grid. the closer you are to the power source, the more resiliency that can be built into the system. distributed power sources, such as wind and solar, are very helpful in this regard.

          9. CoRev

            Baffled, now you are just moving the goal posts: “you are the one artificially arguing that this development is off the grid. ” I said just the opposite. It’s because it is connected to the larger grid that adds resiliency to their local grid.

            It’s you and your fellow travelers that unthinkingly believed the hype in the article. Your grasp of the obvious change improving FL construction standards adds no value. Remember, you wrote this: “even when renewables work in spectacular fashion, you still doubt the facts.”

            I just pointed out the facts missing from the article. No one has refuted any of them.

          10. baffling

            covid, I will repeat again. nobody is arguing that Babcock is off the grid. what we are saying is that community did not lose power, while surrounding communities did lose power. they maintained power because of the combination of their underground utilities, solar panels and storage systems. it is called resiliency. it is a backbone of the smarter grid. that is the future direction of power in America. it makes it easy to acquire power from where it is available.

          1. CoRev

            Baffled, this is from the 2nd reference: “Each of the ten large gray steel battery storage units at the FPL Babcock Ranch Solar Energy Center can store 1 megawatt of power and discharge for 4 hours. The adjacent 440 acres with 330,000 solar panels can generate up to 74.5 megawatts of power. Currently the solar installation generates more power than the town needs, so the surplus goes into the electric power grid. The new battery storage system ensures a steady output of power even on partly cloudy days.

            This was the same quote in you 1st reference. The 3rd reference does not apply to the article.

            What happens outside that ole 4 hour window that batteries provide a PARTIAL backup solution? Did babcockranch lose power? During Ian? During the cloudy lead up to Ian? If you believe it did, you live in a fantasy world. It is easy to disprove most solar claims because the solar cycle is so stable. It is also the weakest of the renewables sources

            Was any of this in that article originally referenced? Moreover, does your research disprove what I have claimed? NOPE!

          2. baffling

            covid, after the storm there were over 2 million people in florida without power. babcock ranch was not part of that 2 million people without power. you can complain all you want about how bad renewables are. but babcock had power, and other affected parts of florida did not have power. these are the facts. you seem to think it is better to have zero power than power in only 22 of 24 hours of a day. what a silly position you take. you must have been a hoot of an employee in your working days. you are probably even against underground utilities, because a democrat thought it was a good idea.

          3. CoRev

            Baffled, now claims: “after the storm there were over 2 million people in florida without power. babcock ranch was not part of that 2 million people without power. And during the storm they also did not have power? The night after the storm they probably also did not have power.

            Are they still attached to the FL grid to backup those nights? Just wondering. I think it is best to have power 24 hours of a day, and not pay more to achieve that goal daily. Don’t you?

            Wind is not a whole lot better. https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2022/09/image-20.png Notice all the white space on this daily chart when backups are needed. Here’s another example of renewables inability to ever economically meet demand. https://joannenova.com.au/wp-content/june-17-solar2.jpg

            How long before you folks realize that the horse you are beating is dead? How many peole will need to die?

    2. pgl

      Babcock Ranch calls itself “America’s first solar-powered town.”

      I can only imagine how CoRev and his fellow mad barking dogs will attack this community. Woof woof!

    3. AndrewG

      Great share, and reassuring about certain sustainability issues. However, I strongly doubt this means they don’t need either baseline power or storage.

      1. baffling

        they have a storage system. it allows them to store excess solar from the day and deploy at night. is it foolproof? probably not. but it is a heck of a lot better than what fools like covid would want you to believe.

        1. Ivan

          Yes as mentioned before, the they must create a system that has absolutely zero problems over 100 years is neither fair nor realistic. You could indeed add enough solar capacity and storage to build up battery reserves equal to 5 years of power usage (if the sun stoped shining for longer than that you would have bigger problems than not being able to do your laundry at will). The problem with such a system is not technical (its easy to do) but it would come at a heavy cost. Personally I am on a regular grid and I have suffered 3-7 day power loses about once a decade (100 mph winds would definitely give us a week without power). About 3 times a year we have the 2-24 hour power loses. Those loses are almost always wind events. That is what you have to compare to when you talk about this community of alternative power.

          You don’t need to get into a lot of complicated calculations for a community that stays off the the “high wire” grid. You calculate the expected annual needs and build production facilities that will make that much (plus 20%) annually. Then you calculate the predicted usage spikes. The difference between the production lows (e.g., a real long period of heavy rain in the winter) and usage spikes, tells you how much energy storage capacity you need to have to run smooth. The question of how often you want to be inconvenienced by brown outs (they never completely loose power) is a price issue. The more storage capacity the less frequency and severity of brown outs. Even if things change and calculations turns out to have been on the low side (or people lose tolerance for brown outs), it’s easy to add more production or storage capacity to weather those 10, 50, 100, 500 year events in comfort.

          I understand that there are people who will always refuse to believe their own lying eyes and just deny that off grid houses or micro-grid communities can and will function much better than the current system. As with so many other things (like electric cars), those who desperately try to invent fact-free reasons why “this will never… “, are clowns who will be laughed at, then left behind in the dust.

          1. AndrewG

            “The problem with such a system is not technical (its easy to do) but it would come at a heavy cost.”

            I mean … isn’t that the point? The storage technology isn’t ready to mostly take over from baseline power. It’s great we have made progress, but we’re still not there. Baseline power is going to be with us for decades. There’s no point denying it or pretending it’s not true. And with nuclear, it can be just as green, and still be less expensive than current technology’s storage solutions.

          2. AndrewG

            Here’s another way of thinking about it:

            Who is *credibly* suggesting that storage technology will be ready to take over a significant (idunno, >10%, >15%) part of the work of baseline power generation within 10 years? 20 years? Anyone?

            Putting aside the histrionics of climate change deniers and curmudgeons, the issue of intermittency is real and is not going away soon. Those of us who want to build a decarbonized grid should be realistic.

          3. AndrewG

            I can’t remember if I’ve shared this here before (and sorry for spamming you) but:

            Here’s physicist and YouTube gal Sabine Hossenfelder on energy storage technology:

            Renewable Energy Storage: No Wind, No Sun, Now What? | Sabine Hossenfelder
            https://youtu.be/Q8xsg9iK5yo

            Bottom line: There’s no good storage technology in the foreseeable future that can handle foreseeable needs. There’s no point in sugar-coating this.

          4. baffling

            andrew, no one is arguing that intermittency is not an issue. it simply is not an insurmountable issue, that makes you give up on renewables. you simply have to determine how much backup you would require. is four hours enough? 12 hours? there are those who say if you ever have any power down, then it is a failure. that is simply not realistic. the texas power grid failed for a week, because the “baseline” natural gas system failed. there will always be blackouts. but we can build smart grids and update houses with smart utilities that optimize our energy use and storage. that technology exists today.

            i have seen some of the latest large scale battery technology in labs. we are actually not that far away from real solutions. are they ideal? perhaps not. but we are close to large scale solutions with signifiant storage capacity. i am not arguing for 100% renewables today. but we can significantly reduce our use of fossil fuel energy soon. it just requires a bit more flexibility in how we deploy our energy. for instance, every electric vehicle is a battery backup. and the number of EV’s is growing every year.

            as the world continues to increase power consumption, and moves to an all electric framework, we may have to reconsider how and when we permit power consumption. power management through limitations of when high consumption items are used is probably a necessity in the future. lets forget renewables for a minute. does it make sense to overbuild natural gas facilities so that everybody can run their washing machine and air conditioner at 5pm, only to have those natural gas facilities sit idle for the next 20 hours once demand drops? we can certainly improve our energy usage with better efficiency.

          5. Ivan

            Baseline power generation can be done by solar and wind. It is much faster and cheeper to simply build enough to cover baseline usage than to build new nuclear. Batteries to deal with the 24 hour cycle is not that expensive and still makes more sense. Nuclear offers nothing that alternative energy cannot deliver cheeper and faster. Intermittency is not a problem if you invest enough in energy storage. Thermal solar (liquid sodium) is one way of fixing the intermittency “problem” without batteries.

            Energy storage is not just batteries there are many other technologies that can be used to store energy (thermal, kinetic, hydrogen). The only reason we have not scaled those up yet is that we have decided to not subsidize them nearly as much as we subsidize (direct and indirect) the hydrocarbon energy sources.

            The suggestion that nobody is “credibly” suggesting…. is just biased BS. Google it and you will se plenty of suggestions for energy storage (small and large scale). So who decide if it is “credible” or how do you decide it to be “credible” ?

            To build up with an ancient technology such as nuclear power plants would only be justified if they could clearly solve a problem that could not be solved by renewables – I don’t see that. They are trying in Wyoming and that is fine – lets see how it comes out in the end. Just don’t stop fixing the problems or bet my money on an old decrepit horse.

          6. AndrewG

            Ivan says: “Baseline power generation can be done by solar and wind. ”

            There is no evidence for that. See Hossenfelder’s take. She is not an energy economist but she is smart enough to see how current and forecasted prices and forecasted technological development say intermittency is a problem that is solved *only* by baseline power for the foreseeable future.

            baffling says: “i have seen some of the latest large scale battery technology in labs. we are actually not that far away from real solutions”

            Sounds awesome, and I hope they come to fruition.

            baffling says: “as the world continues to increase power consumption, and moves to an all electric framework, we may have to reconsider how and when we permit power consumption.”

            This is the problem that Ivan is simply not willing to face. Baseline power – particularly nuclear – is extremely important right now and in the foreseeable future. If you don’t have it, you have intermittent rationing. Gas plants aren’t good at peak demand because their supply curves are so steep – that’s why Texas experienced what it experienced.

            Telling ourselves fantastical stories about how power storage tech is going to develop doesn’t help us plan for a decarbonized power generation and delivery system. The most hopeful projections may pan out – but may not.

          7. AndrewG

            Ivan says: “The suggestion that nobody is “credibly” suggesting…. is just biased BS”

            I ask again: Who is *credibly* suggesting that storage technology will be ready to take over a significant (idunno, >10%, >15%) part of the work of baseline power generation within 10 years? 20 years? Anyone?

            Can you name anyone? Hossenfelder’s calculations say it’s a pipe dream. I admit, she’s not an energy economist. But she’s not exactly nobody.

          8. AndrewG

            Ivan says: “Baseline power generation can be done by solar and wind. It is much faster and cheeper to simply build enough to cover baseline usage than to build new nuclear.”

            That’s just not how that works. To the extent that intermittency between all the various sources, you are going to need stable generation as a backup (at minimum) to solar and wind.

            If you can’t admit that, then there’s no point in arguing with you.

          9. Baffling

            Hossenfelder is out of her element here. I like her as a popular physicist. But what we are talking about is now an engineering problem, not a physics problem.

            As an example, before long most households will have at least one electric car. That is a battery backup in each of those houses. That is alot of resiliency built into the system. And cheap because it is not simply a standby backup, but also utilized daily. Some of you cannot really see the big picture, so solutions seem far away. We are much closer than you think.

            Add in some solar panels, and the resiliency continues to build. You need to think of these solutions in terms of systems, not components.

        2. AndrewG

          Yes, the article mentions battery systems. But the technology has nowhere near the necessary capacity yet, and those developments are apparently not on the horizon yet. Great news they survived the storm, but there are bigger issues that would need baseline power and *new* storage technology to solve.

          1. Ivan

            The “technology” has all the “capacity” it needs today. Tell me how much capacity you need and I will tell you how many batteries to order. So not only are the developments on the horizon, they have already been developed and deployed in peoples backyards.

          2. CoRev

            AndrewG accurately says: “…there are bigger issues that would need baseline power and *new* storage technology to solve.” But new technology is needed only if you want to throw out the old. There are no examples on out planet where that has been done successfully. It’s the biggest failure of the Green Plan and it is/will kill people. Over 200 in Tx in the past freeze. How many the Winter in the EU?

            What problem are you trying to solve?

          3. Baffling

            Old man, quiet down before you have another heart attack. Nobody is interested in letting you push your opinion on others. The rest of us have a concern about the state of the world a decade from now. That is obviously not a concern of an old man who will not suffer the consequences of his mistakes today. Retire quietly please. Your input is no longer wanted.

        3. CoRev

          Baffled, better how? ” it is a heck of a lot better than what fools like covid would want you to believe.” What problem is it solving? Where has it lowered the consumer price for electricity?

          1. CoRev

            Baffled nobly says: “. The rest of us have a concern about the state of the world a decade from now. ” So you are saving the world from evil carbon dioxide?

            I guess you still don’t want to admit that Babcock Farm: “so during the day the town will use energy from the FPL Babcock Ranch Solar Energy Center. When the sun goes down and the solar plant is not generating energy, Babcock Ranch will pull electricity off the grid from the closest FPL natural-gas power plant.”

            Kinda confirms what I have said many times: Solar generation can not fulfill peak demand. True for this highly inaccurately touted example.

          2. baffling

            “True for this highly inaccurately touted example.”
            Babcock is an example of a physical experiment. you may not like the results. but they are not theoretical. they are real. what you are doubting, covid, is reality. you simply wish it had not occurred. communities like Babcock are your nightmare. They demonstrate that everything you argue and complain about is incorrect. This is why you so much resist any demonstration projects. It is hard to argue with reality, even though you try.

    1. pgl

      Johnny as Putin’s pet poodle is painfully aware of Ukraine’s successes as his master is furious and refuses to feed his pet poodle.

    2. pgl

      ” Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around #Lyman and in northern #Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.”

      Oh dear – what will Johnny boy say now? Oh yea, the Ukrainian forces have not taken the Kremlin – yet!

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