Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Time Series Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin

  • Is the partial derivative of fast food employment with respect to the minimum wage negative? Maybe, maybe not.
  • Does a higher minimum wage decrease young adult employment? Maybe, maybe not.
  • Does a higher minimum wage raise fast food restaurant prices? Not noticeably.

These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.

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Mass Shooting Casualties through 28 October

Regression 1982q4-2018q3:

f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump

Adj.R2 = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.

Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.

One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.

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