Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Manufacturing and the Dollar’s Value

New industrial output numbers, including for manufacturing, confirm a slowdown in at least part of the tradables sector.


Figure 1: Real value of the US dollar against broad basket (black, left scale), manufacturing production (red, right scale), manufacturing employment (blue, right scale), all in logs, 2013M01=0. Source: Federal Reserve Board, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Both production and employment now on a slight downturn, despite recent dollar depreciation. The dollar is 14% higher in log terms relative to mid-2014.

Kansas in (Technical) Recession

The BEA released quarterly state GDP figures today. As of 2015Q4, Kansas has just experienced two consecutive negative GDP growth, a distinction shared with only three other states — Alaska, Oklahoma and Wyoming (North Dakota experienced three quarters of negative growth, but experienced positive growth in Q4). Over the past five quarters, Kansas has experienced four quarters of negative GDP growth.

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Recession Watch, June 2016

Since Friday’s employment release, [1] there’s been a surge in articles discussing the possibility of a recession.


Figure 1: Google Trends index for “Recession”, last 30 days, in Business and Finance category. Source: Google, accessed 6/7, 11PM Pacific.

Time for a look at some key indicators the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee [1] has looked at in the past.

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