Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Philadelphia Fed: Wisconsin and Kansas Growth Gaps Forecasted to Increase

And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas, based on a Tax Foundation analysis (the same Patrick R. Sullivan who refuses to admit that his assertion that the depth of the downturn in Canada was less than that in the US during the Great Depression is wrong.) Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. From today’s release of leading indices by the Philadelphia Fed, combined with last week’s release of coincident indices.

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Ed Lazear Comments on Government Forecasts

Or, the self-rehabilitation effort continues. In a WSJ op-ed entitled “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board”, he writes:

My analysis of 1999-2013 reveals that the CBO’s real GDP growth forecasts for the next year were off, on average, by 1.7 percentage points, either too high or low. Administration forecasts were similarly off by a slightly larger 1.8 percentage points on average, also to high or too low. Given that the average growth rate during this period was only 2.1%, errors of this magnitude are substantial.

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Wisconsin Employment: 108.6K below Trend Required to Hit Walker’s 250K Target

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with the Governor’s target (recommitted to a mere year ago) of 250 thousands net new jobs.

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