The current GDP deflator should be 18% higher (in log terms), or 154.2 instead of 128.2. To see this, consider the tautology:
Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 compared to the same week one year ago, measured in growth rates relative to long-run national average growth, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly economic conditions index.
Industrial production declined 0.1% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose in October strongly. Other key indicators followed by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in Q4.
Looks like the betting is on Democratic control.
M/M headline vs. core vs. trimmed mean vs. median:
M/M CPI inflation 0.4% vs. Bloomberg consensus 0.6%, while core was 0.3% vs. 0.5%. All measures (m/m, q/q, y/y, headline/core) below recent peaks.
By simple addition of bets on 50 seats or less for Republicans — at 1030am Eastern Time, from PredictIt: