Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
I’ve just finished up the Mundell-Fleming model in my int’l finance course, and ended the section with a discussion of the “International Trilemma”, also known as “the Impossible Trinity”, which states that a given country can at any given time fully achieve only two out of three objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary autonomy, and financial integration (full capital mobility) at a time.
Figure 1: Log coincident index for Missouri (blue), Kansas (red), and US (black), all 2011M01=0. March 2017 observation implied from leading indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations.
Update: More on Governor Brownback’s information program, here.
The 2016Q3 GDP advance figures were released today, indicating a 2.9% growth rate (SAAR), exceeding consensus (Bloomberg 2.5%). Tomorrow, Jim will report on the recession probabilities based upon the advance release (see last quarter’s analysis here). Until then, given all the discussion of recession (e.g. , ), it seems useful to show a few pictures of where we stand today, and the outlook going forward, given some standard and non-standard indicators.
In case you were wondering, Minnesota continues to outpace Wisconsin.
The Philadelphia Fed released coincident indices today. Figure 1 shows state-by-state 3 month trends. Needless to say, the outlook for Kansas — that laboratory for supply side nostrums — is not auspicious.
Source: Philadelphia Fed, accessed 26 Oct 2016.
While Alaska seems to be in the running for worst performing, in fact the 3 month (annualized) decline of 4.5% for Kansas is the worst in the 50 states.