Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

The Trilemma, Nuanced

I’ve just finished up the Mundell-Fleming model in my int’l finance course, and ended the section with a discussion of the “International Trilemma”, also known as “the Impossible Trinity”, which states that a given country can at any given time fully achieve only two out of three objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary autonomy, and financial integration (full capital mobility) at a time.

trilemma

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“The Election: Implications for Policy Change?”

That’s the title of an informal panel at the UW La Follette School of Public Affairs on Tuesday. Here are the slides that underpin my presentation.

For now, let the following figure summarize the choices.
clinton_trump_macro

Source: “Trump vs Clinton: Polarization & uncertainty,” Research Briefing (Oxford Economics, 19 Sept. 2016) [not online].

The other panelists are Pam Herd, Greg Nemet, Rourke O’Brien, and Tim Smeeding.

Recession Watch, October 2016

The 2016Q3 GDP advance figures were released today, indicating a 2.9% growth rate (SAAR), exceeding consensus (Bloomberg 2.5%). Tomorrow, Jim will report on the recession probabilities based upon the advance release (see last quarter’s analysis here). Until then, given all the discussion of recession (e.g. [0], [1]), it seems useful to show a few pictures of where we stand today, and the outlook going forward, given some standard and non-standard indicators.

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The Kansas Economy: Three Pictures

The Philadelphia Fed released coincident indices today. Figure 1 shows state-by-state 3 month trends. Needless to say, the outlook for Kansas — that laboratory for supply side nostrums — is not auspicious.

coincident2016-09

Source: Philadelphia Fed, accessed 26 Oct 2016.

While Alaska seems to be in the running for worst performing, in fact the 3 month (annualized) decline of 4.5% for Kansas is the worst in the 50 states.

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