Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

First Annual FRB-NYFED Conference on the “International Roles of the U.S. Dollar”

That’s the title of a conference (June 16-17) I had the pleasure of participating in. The agenda is shown below (I have included links to the papers where publicly available, but they might not be to the most recent version; Online agenda). This conference went well beyond recounting the main features associated with the dollar’s role, presenting both new empirical work (some based on micro data) and new theoretical work — ranging from the dominant currency pricing in a New Keynesian model to an explanation for staged capital account liberalization for the Chinese bond market, against a backdrop of rapid developments in digital currencies/assets and financial sanctions.

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Business Cycles in the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Framework (edition XLXIV)

Some people assert when polls of the public indicate a majority think we’re in a recession, we’re in a recession, definitionally. Some people believe that when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we’re in a recession. Well, any given person can define a banana as a spherical fruit, but it is sometimes useful to define what a recession is, as defined by the scholars who coined the term, or who have been understood to be the arbiters of the term in quasi official terms. From the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQs webpage:

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