From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232 (“National Security”) tariffs on bathroom vanities, upholstered furniture, and some pharmaceuticals.
Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories
Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum.
Guest Contribution: “Do Voters Pursue Their Economic Self-Interest?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
In Search of the Section 232 (National Security) Report on Bathroom Vanities
This is what I found on the Bureau of Industrial Security/Dept of Commerce website:
Guest Contribution: “Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact, EPU (as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index) rises, but the increase is on average dwarfed by events like Covid-19/”Bleach” advice, and “Liberation Day”.
“What to know about Trump’s new pharmaceutical tariff plan”: That We Don’t Know Anything
Really, you read “The Hill” article, you literally don’t know anything.
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a rising share of price sensitive Treasury holders. Others that it was a flight away from the US dollar assets spurred by tariff uncertainty (see a discussion here). Here’s the picture people know, the dollar vs. US Treasurys:
Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade