Since we’re talking recession , it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US:
The portents from China are not good. There are ominously titled news articles aplenty; the WSJ asked in August if a global recession is brewing in China. Wonkblog asks How China could trigger a global crisis:
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy.
From The Hill:
Instead of crediting Obama for any of the economic gains that have occurred in the last seven years, Ryan argued that the Fed’s policies pushed the recovery. He added that the central bank’s controversial efforts to drive down borrowing costs may have driven growth, but the benefits failed to spread to everyone.
As the CNY depreciates, just a quick note for perspective.
I don’t think it’s structural change associated with the recession.
and yet more fantastical pseudo public policy analysis
Governor Walker blames the workers.