National manufacturing employment peaks nearly a year later, August 2019.
Plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit yields 37% probability of recession in October next year. Adjusting the spread by the 10 year term premium estimate (Kim-Wright) implies only a 6.5% probability in September (vs. 46.4% plain vanilla). Augmenting the term spread with the 10 year term premium implies a 42.2% probability for September…
Case-Shiller indices came out today. August prices for the 20 city index declined m/m, and Zillow’s forecast for the CS 20 city index in September was for another decline. This is shown in Figure 1:
The nowcasts indicate slowdown.
Case-Shiller August prices come out next week. For now, we have Zillow prices through September, and Zillow forecast. Here are the CPI deflated prices.