U.Michigan index revised down from preliminary.
Sentiment Declines
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal income ex-current transfers and employment are more heavily weighted than other indicators.
Wisconsin Hammered by Tariffs?
Yes, if the Philadelphia Fed Early Benchmark is closer to right.
The Safety of the Nation Depends on … Upholstered Furniture and Bathroom Vanities
The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT:
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month).
EJ Antoni Channels “The [1929 UK] Treasury View”
$20 bn Credit Line to Argentina?
Why? Is Argentina central to US national security or economic interests?
Miran on r*
Yesterday, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the White House CEA, spoke on “Nonmonetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy.” I was confused.
Guest Contribution: “FAIT, Shortfalls, and the Federal Reserve’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
The Availability of Quarterly GDP Data for the US: Memo to EJ Antoni
Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for the US I am aware of.