Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist:
Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).
CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown
Letter released today:
Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .
Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises
From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232 (“National Security”) tariffs on bathroom vanities, upholstered furniture, and some pharmaceuticals.
Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories
Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum.