CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t…
Is It Seasonal Adjustment?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
August 1, 2025: A Day that Will Live in Statistical Infamy
As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So what all of feared about the safety of the independence of our economic statistical agencies has come to pass. We might as well delegate the employment numbers to Kevin Hassett at the NEC.
Downside Surprise in Employment Levels
Tales from the Employment Situation release for July: (1) July Establishment employment change below consensus; (2) Revisions make trends slower; (3) Adds data indicating a slowdown.
Guest Contribution: “Trump’s Taylor Rule”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and Sohaib Nasim. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Eve
Baker, Bloom and Davis and Caldara et al. measures:
Instantaneous Core Inflation Again Rising
Though not quite to February rates:
CRFB CEA Watch
State of the Macroeconomy: GDP, Key Indicators as of 7/31
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release yesterday, looking at different aspects of economic activity:
Final Nowcast for Q2
Atlanta Fed nowcast incorporating advance economic indicators indicates 2.9% q/q AR, up from 2.4%. The news is in final sales to private domestic purchasers.
Forecasts: CEA >> IMF > WSJ
From IMF’s July World Economic Outlook, released today: