GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below:
From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:
In a project with Laurent Ferrara, we have been examining the properties of financial indicators as predictors of (NBER defined) recessions. In addition to the term spread, we have considered Financial Conditions Indices (Arrigoni-Bobasu-Venditti, Goldman Sachs), the foreign term spread (a la Ahmed-Chinn) and the BIS debt service ratio (suggested by Borio-Drehmann-Xia). Slides from presentation in June here.