Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate number; however, we can infer certain trends from the disaggregate (by firm size) numbers from ADP.
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside)
Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .
A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist:
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).
Letter released today:
