GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).
Nowcasts and Forecasts – Mid-September
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Inflation in August
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Oil Price Forecast
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below:
Official and Supplemental Poverty Rates, through 2022
The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals).
Urals Discount to Brent $16.3
From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:
How Much Have (Ex Ante) Real Rates Risen?
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds:
Calling Graduate Students of the 1980’s…
I found this Bloomberg article about the exhaustion of pandemic-benefits related savings of interest and the coming consumption crash of interest.
Recession Probabilities (using data through end-2022)
In a project with Laurent Ferrara, we have been examining the properties of financial indicators as predictors of (NBER defined) recessions. In addition to the term spread, we have considered Financial Conditions Indices (Arrigoni-Bobasu-Venditti, Goldman Sachs), the foreign term spread (a la Ahmed-Chinn) and the BIS debt service ratio (suggested by Borio-Drehmann-Xia). Slides from presentation in June here.
The Recession of 2022H1 – Rec Vehicles, but No Spam
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
Kopitsian (and Other) Recession Indicators
I’m not of the mind that a recession is going to be avoided, despite increasing confidence this will be the outcome. However, it is hard to find indicators the recession is here, even when looking at measures Steve Kopits (of 2022H1 recession fame) has mentioned.